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Theoretical Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Applied Analysis of High Frequency Data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20243014
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

ITO Takatoshi  東京大学, 大学院・経済学研究科, 教授 (30203144)

Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) HASHIMOTO Yuko  東洋大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (80333037)
YABU Tomoyoshi  筑波大学, システム情報工学研究科, 講師終了時点、慶応大学商学部准教授 (90463819)
Project Period (FY) 2008 – 2012
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
Budget Amount *help
¥26,650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥20,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥6,150,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥7,150,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,650,000)
Keywords為替レート / 高頻度データ / 介入 / オーダーフロー / ボラティリティー / 変動性(ボラティリティー) / ランダム・ウォーク / マクロ統計 / マイクロ・ストラクチャー / 変動性(ボラティリティー) / 変動性
Research Abstract

This theoretical and empirical research dealt with the unique data set that comes from the trading platform, EBS, of the major exchange rates. The record includes limit orders, deal prices and deal volumes, among others, in one-second time slice. The research belongs to a growing literature using the high-frequency data set. The following results were found in the research; Just before and after the announcement of important macroeconomic variables, the surprise (-actual - expected) components causes a fast movement in the exchange rate in the direction consistent with theory; The exchange rate movement in the second frequency is not consistent with a random walk hypothesis but with momentum trading strategy; Arbitrage opportunities in the form of negative spread and triangular arbitrage do exist, primarily because of credit lines among banks that are involved. However, the frequency and duration of such arbitrage opportunities have declined since 2005. The trend is correlated with the number of banks’ computers directly connected to the EBS system.

Report

(7 results)
  • 2012 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report   Self-evaluation Report ( PDF )
  • 2009 Annual Research Report
  • 2008 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (52 results)

All 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Other

All Journal Article (27 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 18 results) Presentation (18 results) Book (2 results) Remarks (5 results)

  • [Journal Article] International Reserves and the Global Financial Crisis2012

    • Author(s)
      Dominguez, Kathryn; Yuko Hashimoto; Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Economics

      Volume: vol. 88, issue 2 Pages: 388-406

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Can Asia Overcome the IMF Stigma?2012

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi
    • Journal Title

      American Economic Review

      Volume: vol. 102

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Free Lunch: Arbitrage Opportunitiesin the Foreign Exchange Markets2012

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi; Kenta Yamada; Misako Takayasu; and Hideki Takayasu
    • Journal Title

      National Bureau of Economic Research, working paper 18541

      Pages: 1-54

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The Choice of an Invoicing Currency by Globally Operating Firms : A Firm-Level Analysis of Japanese Exporters2012

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi, Satoshi Koibuchi, Kiyotaka Sato, Junko Shimizu
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Finance and Economics

      Volume: (印刷中) Issue: 4 Pages: 305-320

    • DOI

      10.1002/ijfe.1450

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Market Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the Electronic Broking System2011

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, Yuko and Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      Greg N. Gregoriou and Razvan Pascalau (eds.), Financial Econometrics Modeling: Market Microstructure, Factor Models and Financial Risk Measures, New York

      Pages: 66-91

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Market Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Markets : Evidence from the Electronic Broking System2011

    • Author(s)
      Y.Hashimoto, T.Ito
    • Journal Title

      (論文集)Financial Econometrics Modeling : Market Microstructure, Factor Models and Financial Risk Measures

      Pages: 66-91

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Random Walk or a Run-Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability2011

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, Yuko, Ito, Takatoshi, Ohnishi, Takaaki, Takayasu, Misako, Takayasu, Hideki, Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance

      Volume: (掲載決定)(掲載確定)

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Market Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Markets : Evidence from the Electronic Broking System2011

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, Yuko, Ito, Takato shi
    • Journal Title

      Financial Econometrics Modeling : Market Microstructure, Factor Models and Financial Risk Measures(G.N.Gregoriou, R.Pascalau (eds.))

      Volume: (書籍の章) Pages: 66-91

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Random Walk or a Run-MarketMicrostructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability-2010

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, Yuko; Takatoshi Ito; Takaaki Ohnishi; Misako Takayasu; Hideki Takayasu, and Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance, First published:13 December 2010 (iFirst),

      Volume: vol. 12, No.6 Pages: 893-905

    • URL

      http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all?content=10.1080/14697681003792237

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: High-Resolution Picture2010

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, Yuko and Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      Journal ofthe Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: vol. 24 Pages: 334-354

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate : High-Resolution Picture2010

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, Yuko, Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies vol.24

      Pages: 334-354

    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Random walk or a run. Market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange rate movements based on conditional probability2010

    • Author(s)
      Yuko Hashimoto, Takatoshi Ito, Takaaki Ohnishi, Misako Takayasu, Hideki Takayasu, Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance

    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate : High-Resolution Picture2010

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, Yuko, Ito, Takatoshi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 24 Pages: 334-354

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Random Walk or a Run-Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability-2010

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, Yuko ; Takatoshi Ito ; Takaaki Ohnishi ; Misako Takayasu ; Hideki Takayasu, Tsutomu Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance (掲載決定)

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Solvable stochastic dealer models for financial markets2009

    • Author(s)
      Yamada, Kenta; Hideki Takayasu; Takatoshi Ito; and Misako Takayasu
    • Journal Title

      Physical Review-E 051120

      Volume: vol.79

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate : High-Resolution Picture2009

    • Author(s)
      Yuko Hashimoto, Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      NBER Working Paper No.15020

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Solvable stochastic dealer models for financial marketses.2009

    • Author(s)
      Yamada, Kenta ; Hideki Takayasu ; Takatoshi Ito ; Misako Takayasu
    • Journal Title

      Physical Review-E 051120 79(5)

      Pages: 12-12

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Dynamics of Quote and Deal Prices in the Foreign Exchange Market2008

    • Author(s)
      Ohnishi, Takaaki; Hideki Takayasu; Takatoshi Ito; Yuko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Watanabe; and Misako Takayasu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of EconomicInteraction and Coordination

      Volume: vol. 3 Pages: 99-106

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements2008

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi, and Yuko Hashimoto
    • Journal Title

      T. Ito and A. Rose (eds.) International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim, NBER East AsiaSeminar on Economics

      Volume: Volume 17 Pages: 177-215

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies : VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through2008

    • Author(s)
      Ito, Takatoshi, Kiyotaka Sato
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 40(7)

      Pages: 1407-1438

    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Dynamics of Quote and Deal Prices in the Foreign Exchange Market2008

    • Author(s)
      Ohnishi, Takaaki, Hideki Takayasu, Takatoshi Ito, Yuko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Watanabe, Misako Takayasu
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination vol.3

      Pages: 99-106

    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report
  • [Journal Article] Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements2008

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito, Yuko Hashimoto
    • Journal Title

      International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim

      Pages: 177-215

    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report
  • [Journal Article] Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through2008

    • Author(s)
      Ito,Takatoshi and Kiyotaka Sato
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 40(7)

      Pages: 1407-1438

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Dynamics of Quote and Deal Prices in the Foreign Exchange Market2008

    • Author(s)
      Ohnishi, Takaaki; Hideki Takayasu; Takatoshi Ito; Yuko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Watanabe: and Misako
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 3

      Pages: 99-106

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Influence of the Renminbi on Exchange Rate Policies of Other Asian Currencies2008

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy

      Pages: 239-258

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements2008

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito and Yuko Hashimoto
    • Journal Title

      International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim

      Pages: 177-215

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate : High-Resolution Picture

    • Author(s)
      Yuko Hashimoto, Takatoshi Ito
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies (掲載決定)

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Western EconomicAssociation,International2013

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito
    • Organizer
      10th Biennial Pacific Rim Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Keio University, Tokyo.(Keynote Address)
    • Year and Date
      2013-03-16
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Humans vs Machines -- Impact of Changing Microstructure on the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market2013

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      慶應義塾大学 (東京都)
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本経済学会2012

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      FreeLunch!Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学
    • Year and Date
      2012-06-23
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] American Economic Association, Annual Meeting2012

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito.
    • Organizer
      Can Asia Overcome the IMF Stigma?"
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, USA
    • Year and Date
      2012-01-06
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Free Lunch! Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets2012

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2012年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学 (北海道)
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate : High-Resolution Picture2009

    • Author(s)
      橋本優子、伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      日本銀行金融研究所
    • Place of Presentation
      日本銀行金融研究所
    • Year and Date
      2009-08-20
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate : High-Resolution Picture2009

    • Author(s)
      橋本優子
    • Organizer
      神戸大学金融研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      神戸大学経済学部
    • Year and Date
      2009-08-01
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate2009

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      ECB客員セミナーシリーズ
    • Place of Presentation
      欧州中央銀行
    • Year and Date
      2009-03-27
    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report 2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate2009

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏・橋本優子
    • Organizer
      吹野プロジェクト研究報告会
    • Place of Presentation
      一橋大学経済研究所
    • Year and Date
      2009-03-05
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Exchange Rate Movement with High Frequency Data2009

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      東工大・-橋大国際会議&APFA7経済・産業における大規模データへの新しいアプローチ
    • Place of Presentation
      東京工業大学(基調講演)
    • Year and Date
      2009-03-03
    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report
  • [Presentation] 基調講演 "The Exchange Rate Movement with High Frequency Data"2009

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      東工大・一橋大国際会議&APFA7経済・産業における大規模データへの新しいアプローチ
    • Place of Presentation
      東京工業大学
    • Year and Date
      2009-03-03
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcement on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate2009

    • Author(s)
      橋本優子
    • Organizer
      東工大・一橋大国際会議&APFA7経済・産業における大規模データへの新しいアプローチ
    • Place of Presentation
      東京工業大学
    • Year and Date
      2009-03-02
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] American Economic Association, Annual Meeting2009

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito.
    • Organizer
      Comparison of the Asian Crisis of 1997-98 and the Global Crisis of 2008-09"
    • Place of Presentation
      Atlanta, USA
    • Year and Date
      2009-01-04
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcement on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate2009

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏・橋本優子
    • Organizer
      アメリカ経済学会年次大会
    • Place of Presentation
      サンフランシスコ
    • Year and Date
      2009-01-03
    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcement on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rat2009

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏・橋本優子
    • Organizer
      アメリカ経済学会年次大会
    • Place of Presentation
      サンフランシスコ・ヒルトンホテル
    • Year and Date
      2009-01-03
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Japanese Macroeconomic Announcements on the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: High-Resolution Picture2008

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏・橋本優子
    • Organizer
      マクロセミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学経済学研究科
    • Year and Date
      2008-11-27
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] World Financial Markets Under Stress: The Asian Currency Crisis of1997-98 and the Subprime Crisis of2007-08"2008

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito.
    • Organizer
      Chair Lecture: 4th Tun Ismail Ali Lecture, University of Malaya
    • Place of Presentation
      Malaysia
    • Year and Date
      2008-08-26
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] ドル・円・ユーロ2008

    • Author(s)
      伊藤隆敏
    • Organizer
      ハワイ大学招待講演「久保寺レクチャー」
    • Place of Presentation
      ハワイ大学
    • Year and Date
      2008-05-30
    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report 2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim2008

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito, Andrew K.Rose
    • Total Pages
      428
    • Publisher
      University of Chicago Press
    • Related Report
      2010 Self-evaluation Report
  • [Book] International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim2008

    • Author(s)
      Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose
    • Total Pages
      428
    • Publisher
      University of Chicago Press
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.tito.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/j_topics.htm

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks] 伊藤隆敏研究室【研究トピック】

    • URL

      http://www.tito.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/j_topics.htm

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.tito.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/j_topics.htm

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.tito.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/Japaneseindex.htm

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~tito

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2008-04-01   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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