| Budget Amount *help |
¥15,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,510,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥5,850,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,350,000)
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| Research Abstract |
We have developed new statistical models as important tools for detecting emerging outbreaks of rare events threatening human health. The existing methods cannot detect irregularly shaped outbreak areas timely and appropriately. First, we developed a new restricted likelihood ratio to avoid the property of existing scan statistics that tend to detect the cluster much larger than the true cluster by swallowing neighboring regions with non-elevated risk. Second, we developed a new space-time scan statistic which compares the observed number of cases with the unconditional expected number of cases, takes a time-to-time variation of Poisson mean into account and implements an outbreak model to capture localized emerging disease outbreaks more timely and correctly. The proposed models are illustrated with data from weekly surveillance of the number of absentees in primary schools in Kita-Kyushu, Japan, 2006.
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