Research on extreme weather and the related natural hazards using CMIP3 Global warming data archive

• Project/Area Number: 20310111
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Natural disaster science
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: ISHIKAWA Hirohiko 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (60263159)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): TAKEMI Tetsuya 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (10314361) ; NAKAKITA Eiichi 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (70183506) ; MARUYAMA Takashi 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (00190570) ; YASUDA Tomohiro 京都大学, 防災研究所, 助教 (60378916)
• Project Period (FY): 2008 – 2011
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
• Budget Amount: ¥15,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,510,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000); Fiscal Year 2010: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000); Fiscal Year 2009: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2008: ¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
• Keywords: 気象災害 / 極端現象 / 地球温暖化 / 海象災害 / IPCC / 気象災害学 / 地球温暖

Research Abstract

It is required to evaluate the magnitude of disasters in addition to the meteorological and climatological evaluation of global warming itself toward IPCC 5. Using data archive of IPCC4 pseudo-warming experiments are conducted with dynamic downscaling approach. In evaluating typhoon induced hazards "possible maximum hazard" is searched by considering a variety of typhoon track. This is applied to the pseudo-warming experiment for existing typhoon and for the dynamic downscaling for a severe typhoon case. For derived severer cases river discharge, storm surge and high-wind disaster are evaluated.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Projected regional-scale changes in atmospheric stability condition for the development of summertime convective preciptation in the Tokyo metropolitan area under global warming (2012)
  • Author(s): Tetsuya TAKEMI
  • Journal Title: Hydrological Research Letters Volume: Vol.6 Pages: 17-22
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] A Regional-Scale Evaluation of Changes in Environmental Stability for Summertime Afternoon Precipitation under Global Warming from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulation : A Study for the Case in the Kanto Plain (2012)
  • Author(s): Tetsuya TAKEMI, Shohei NOMURA, Yuichiro OKU and Hirohiko ISHIKAWA
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Volume: 90A Pages: 189-212
  • NAID: 130004435188
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Representation of Extreme Weather during a Typhoon Landfall in Regional Meteorological Simulations : A Model Intercomparison Study for Typhoon Songda(2004) (2010)
  • Author(s): Yuichiro Oku, Tetsuya Takemi, Hirohiko Ishikawa, Sachie Kanada and Masuo Nakano
  • Journal Title: Hydrological Research Letters Volume: Vol.4 Pages: 1-5
  • NAID: 130000248958
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Simulation of Strong Wind Field by Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model and Its Applicability for Wind Hazard Assessment of Buildings and Houses (2010)
  • Author(s): Takashi Maruyama, Eriko Tomokiyo, Junji Maeda
  • Journal Title: Hydrological Research Letters Volume: Vol.4 Pages: 40-44
  • NAID: 130000249278
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 巨大台風災害の可能性と極端気象現象 (2010)
  • Author(s): 石川裕彦
  • Journal Title: 高圧ガス Volume: Vol.49(9) Pages: 24-29
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 将来の極端台風の複数経路計算による可能最大被害予測 (2010)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・吉野純・石川裕彦・竹見哲也・中北英一
  • Journal Title: 京都大学防災研究所年報 Volume: 52B Pages: 371-380
  • NAID: 120002515140
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 巨大台風災害の可能性と極端気象現象 (2010)
  • Author(s): 石川裕彦
  • Journal Title: 高圧ガス 49(9) Pages: 24-29
• [Journal Article] 将来の極端台風の複数経路計算による可能最大被害予測 (2010)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・吉野純・石川裕彦・竹見哲也・中北英一
  • Journal Title: 京都大学防災研究所年報、B 52 Pages: 371-380
  • NAID: 120002515140
• [Journal Article] Representation of Extreme Weather during a Typhoon Landfall in Regional Meteorological Simulations : A Model Intercomparison Study for Typhoon Songda (2004) (2010)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎, Tetsuya Takemi, Hirohiko Ishikawa, Sachie Kanada, Masuo Nakano
  • Journal Title: Hydrological Research Letters 4 Pages: 1-5
  • NAID: 130000248958
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 超高解像度全球大気モデルの温暖化予測実験データを用いた日本陸域の極端気象現象の抽出方法 (2009)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・Sunmin Kim・中北英一
  • Journal Title: 京都大学防災研究所年報 Volume: Vol.52B Pages: 439-448
  • NAID: 120002515052
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Representation of Extreme Weather during a Typhoon Land- fall in Regional Meteorological Simula- tions : A Model Intercomparison Study for Typhoon Songda (2009)
  • Author(s): Y.Oku, T.Takemi, H.Ishikawa, S.Kanada, M.Nakano
  • Journal Title: Hydrological Research Letters 4 Pages: 1-5
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Simulation of Strong Wind Field by Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model and Its Applicability for Wind Hazard Assessment of Buildings and Houses (2009)
  • Author(s): T.Maruyama, E.Tomokiyo, J.Maeda
  • Journal Title: Hydrological Research Letters 4 Pages: 40-44
  • NAID: 130000249278
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 超高解像度全球大気モデルの温暖化予測実験データを用いた日本陸域の極端気象現象の抽出方法 (2009)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・Sunmin Kim・中北英一
  • Journal Title: 京都大学防災研究所年報、B 52 Pages: 439-444
  • NAID: 120002515052
• [Journal Article] 超高解像度全球大気モデルの温暖化予測実験データを用いた日本陸域の極端気象現象の抽出方法 (2009)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・Sunmin Kim・中北英一
  • Journal Title: 京都大学防災研究所年報 52B Pages: 439-448
  • NAID: 120002515052
• [Journal Article] Simulation of Strong Wind Field by Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model and Its Applicability for Wind Hazard Assessment of Buildings and Houses (2009)
  • Author(s): Takashi Maruyama, Eriko Tomokiyo, Junji Maeda
  • Journal Title: Hydrological Research Letters 4 Pages: 40-44
  • NAID: 130000249278
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] 台風による可能最大被害推定 (2011)
  • Author(s): 石川裕彦
  • Organizer: 自然災害学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-19
• [Presentation] 台風による可能最大被害推定 (2011)
  • Author(s): 戸川裕彦
  • Organizer: 自然災害学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京都東京大学生産技術研究所
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-19
• [Presentation] Overview of Climate Change Assessment on Disaster Environment in DPRI (2011)
  • Author(s): Eiichi NAKAKITA
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earth-science Challenges(ISEC)
  • Place of Presentation: USA
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-15
• [Presentation] Estimation of possible maximum damage caused by tropical cyclone (2011)
  • Author(s): Hirohiko ISHIKAWA
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earth-science Challenges(ISEC)
  • Place of Presentation: USA
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-15
• [Presentation] Estimation of possible maximum damage caused by tropicalcyclone (2011)
  • Author(s): Hirohiko ISHIKAWA
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earth-science Challenges (ISEC)
  • Place of Presentation: 米国オクラホマ州ノーマン市オクラホマ大学
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-15
• [Presentation] Overview of Climate Change Assessment on Disaster Environment in DPRI (2011)
  • Author(s): Eiichi NAKAKITA
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earth-science Challenges (ISEC)
  • Place of Presentation: 米国オクラホマ州ノーマン市オクラホマ大学(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-15
• [Presentation] Downscaling of mesoscal meteorological calculations into engineering unsteady flow calculations (2011)
  • Author(s): Takashi MARUYAMA
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earth-science Challenges(ISEC)
  • Place of Presentation: USA
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-14
• [Presentation] Downscaling of mesoscal meteorological calculations into engineering unsteady flow calculations (2011)
  • Author(s): Takashi MARUYAMA
  • Organizer: International Symposium on Earth-science Challenges (ISEC)
  • Place of Presentation: 米国オクラホマ州ノーマン市オクラホマ大学
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-14
• [Presentation] Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan (2011)
  • Author(s): Kazuyoshi Nishijimaa, Takashi Maruyama b, Mathias Graf
  • Organizer: 5th International Symposium on Wind Effects on Buildings and Urban Environment Wind Hazard Resilient Cities : New Challenges
  • Place of Presentation: Switzerland
• [Presentation] Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan (2011)
  • Author(s): K.Nishijima, T.Maruyama, M.Graf
  • Organizer: 5th International Symposium on Wind Effects on Buildings and Urban Environment Wind Hazard Resilient Cities : New Challenges
  • Place of Presentation: Switzerland.
• [Presentation] Probable maximum damage estimation of the tropical cyclone in future climate (2010)
  • Author(s): ISHIKAWA, Hirohiko
  • Organizer: 2010 International Workshop of TCCIP Project on Climate Change, Taipei, November 1-3,2010
  • Place of Presentation: Taipei, Taiwan
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-02
• [Presentation] 既往台風による可能最大風速・降水量の推定とその妥当性の検証 (2010)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・吉野純・石川裕彦・竹見哲也・中北英一
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-28
• [Presentation] 既往台風による可能最大風速・降水量の推定とその妥当性の検証 (2010)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・吉野純・石川裕彦・竹見哲也・中北英一
  • Organizer: 気象学会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-28
• [Presentation] 台風による影響評価を目的とした可能最大風速・降水量の推定 (2010)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・吉野純・石川裕彦・竹見哲也・中北英一
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-25
• [Presentation] 台風による影響評価を目的可能最大風速・降水量の推定 (2010)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・吉野純・石川裕彦・竹見哲也・中北英一
  • Organizer: 気象学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-25
• [Presentation] 台風による影響評価を目的とした可能最大風速・降水量の推定 (2010)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎・吉野純・石川裕彦・竹見哲也・中北英一
  • Organizer: 気象学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-25
• [Presentation] Probable maximum damage estimation of the tropical cyclone in future climate (2010)
  • Author(s): ISHIKAWA, Hirohiko
  • Organizer: International Workshop of TCCIP Project on Climate Change
  • Place of Presentation: Taipei
• [Presentation] Probable maximum damage estimation of the tropical cyclone in future climate (2010)
  • Author(s): ISHIKAWA H
  • Organizer: 2010 International Workshop of TCCIP Project on Climate Change, Taipei
  • Place of Presentation: Taipei, Taiwan.
• [Presentation] 可能最大被害予測を目的とした渦位逆変換法による台風ボーガシング (2009)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎、吉野純、石川裕彦、竹見哲也、中北英一
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会
  • Place of Presentation: 福岡
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-25
• [Presentation] 可能最大被害予測を目的とした渦位逆変換法による台風ボーガシング (2009)
  • Author(s): 奥勇一郎、吉野純、石川裕彦、竹見哲也、中北英一
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会
  • Place of Presentation: 福岡市
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-15
• [Presentation] Integration of observation, modeling, data communication and other measures toward the mitigation of weather hazards (2009)
  • Author(s): ISHIKAWA, Hirohiko
  • Organizer: International conference on Radar and Modeling Studies of the Atmosphere
  • Place of Presentation: Uji
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-13
• [Presentation] Integration of obser- vation, modeling, data communication and other measures toward the mitigation of weather hazards (2009)
  • Author(s): ISHIKAWA H
  • Organizer: International conference on Radar and Modeling Studies of the Atmosphere
  • Place of Presentation: Uji, Kyoto.
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-13
• [Presentation] Integration of observation, modeling, data communication and other measures toward the mitigation of weather hazards (2009)
  • Author(s): 石川裕彦
  • Organizer: International conference on Radar and Modeling Studies of the Atmosphere
  • Place of Presentation: 宇治市
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-13
• [Presentation] メソスケール気象モデルにより再現された強風場による建物被害の推定について (2009)
  • Author(s): 丸山敬・友清衣利子・前田潤滋
  • Organizer: 極端気象現象とその気候変動による影響評価に関するシンポジウム
  • Place of Presentation: 宇治市
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-06
• [Presentation] 温暖化予測数値情報による極端気象現象と災害発現特性の研究 (2008)
  • Author(s): 石川裕彦・阿部良・横木研
  • Organizer: 日本自然災害学会
  • Place of Presentation: 九州大学伊都キャンパス
  • Year and Date: 2008-09-25
• [Presentation] 温暖化予測数値情報による極端気象現象と災害発現特性の研究 (2008)
  • Author(s): 石川裕彦, 他
  • Organizer: 自然災害学会
  • Place of Presentation: 九州大学
  • Year and Date: 2008-09-25