| Project/Area Number |
20560273
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Power engineering/Power conversion/Electric machinery
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| Research Institution | Kumamoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
MIYAUCHI Hajime Kumamoto University, 大学院・自然科学研究科, 准教授 (20181977)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
MISAWA Etsuya 名古屋市立大学, 大学院・経済学研究科, 教授 (10190620)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
OKADA Kenji (財)電力中央研究所, 社会経済研究所, 上席研究員 (20371205)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2010)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
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| Keywords | 電力自由化 / 事業価値評価 / 純現在価値 / リスク / 効用関数 / 期待効用理論 / 回帰分析 / プロビットモデル / 規制緩和 / 電力市場 / ガス火力発電 / 効用無差別価格 / リスク評価 / 時系列解析 / 電力市場価格 / オプション理論 |
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| Research Abstract |
Under the deregulation of electric power industries, electric utilities need asset planning considering future risks. Though Net Present Value method (Discounted Cash Flow method) is often employed to estimate investments, the method has disadvantages which can not be considered the risks. Then, we show the asset estimation of a thermal power plant, considering the risks by using the utility function which represents the satisfaction of investors. Furthermore, we have developed the asset estimation method by probit model, which is paid attention to the execution or abandonment of the project.
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