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Mechanisms and predictability of the dominant atmospheric variability : An approach using a hierarchical modeling

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20684020
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

WATANABE Masahiro  The University of Tokyo, 大気海洋研究所, 准教授 (70344497)

Project Period (FY) 2008 – 2010
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2010)
Budget Amount *help
¥24,310,000 (Direct Cost: ¥18,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥5,610,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥7,280,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,680,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥7,670,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,770,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥9,360,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,160,000)
Keywords気象 / 大気循環変動 / EnKF / 非線形力学コア / 気象予報 / 予測可能性 / LBM / AGCM / 階層的モデル
Research Abstract

We developed a group of atmospheric models having different levels of complexity. They are used cooperatively to examine the mechanisms of dominant circulation variability and clarified, for example, forcing processes for the summertime teleconnection patterns. We also developed an experimental forecast system based on the ensemble Kalman filter. By extending the system such that the model's parameters are assimilated and perturbed, we showed an improvement in the 1-mo forecast skill, which is due to the reduction of the model error.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2010 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2009 Annual Research Report
  • 2008 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (48 results)

All 2011 2010 2009 2008 Other

All Journal Article (24 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 24 results) Presentation (14 results) Book (6 results) Remarks (4 results)

  • [Journal Article] What causes cool summer over northern central and east Asia and central North America during 20092011

    • Author(s)
      Ha, K.-J, J.-E.Chu, J.-Y.Lee, B.Wang, N.H.Saji, M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Geophys.Res. submitted.

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Eastward shift of the Pacific/North American pattern on an interdecadal time scale and an associated synoptic eddy feedback.2011

    • Author(s)
      Lee, Y.-Y., J.-S.Kug, G.-H.Lim, M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Int.J.Climatol. in press.

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Simulations of synoptic eddu induced instability.2011

    • Author(s)
      Jin, F.-F., M.Zhang, X.-F.Xu, M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Atmos.Sci. under revision.

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Role of air-sea coupling in the South China Sea summer monsoon.2011

    • Author(s)
      Lestari, R.K., M.Watanabe, M.Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      J.Meteor.Soc.Japan 89A

      Pages: 283-290

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfectness using ensemble Kalman filtering.2011

    • Author(s)
      Koyama, H., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Mon.Wea.Rev. 138

      Pages: 3316-3332

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Atmospheric boundary layer response to the meso-scale SST anomalies in the Kuroshio extension.2010

    • Author(s)
      Koseki, S., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate 23

      Pages: 2492-2507

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Forcing mechanisms of the summertime circumglobal teleconnection in a dry AGCM.2010

    • Author(s)
      Yasui, S., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate 23

      Pages: 2093-2114

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Negative correlation between the interannual variability of the stationary and transient wave energy in the Northern Hemisphere.2010

    • Author(s)
      Kodama, C., Y.Mochizuki, S.Hasegawa, T.Iwasaki, M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      SOLA 6

    • NAID

      130004940914

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Negative correlation between the interannual variability of the stationary and transient wave energy in the Northern Hemisphere2010

    • Author(s)
      Kodama, C., Y.Mochizuki, S.Hasegawa, T.Iwasaki, M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 6 Pages: 37-40

    • NAID

      130004940914

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction2010

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, M., Coauthors
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the National Academy of Science

      Volume: 107 Pages: 1833-1837

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Forcing mechanisms of the summertime circumglobal teleconnection in a dry AGCM2010

    • Author(s)
      Yasui, S., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate

      Volume: 23 Pages: 2093-2114

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfectness using ensemble Kalman filtering2010

    • Author(s)
      Koyama, H., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Mon.Wea.Rev.

      Volume: 138 Pages: 3316-3332

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Atmospheric boundary layer response to the meso-scale SST anomalies in the Kuroshio extension2010

    • Author(s)
      Koseki, S., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate

      Volume: 23 Pages: 2492-2507

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction2010

    • Author(s)
      Mochizuki, M., Coauthors
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 107

      Pages: 1833-1837

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Forcing mechanisms of the summertime circumglobal teleconnection in a dry AGCM2010

    • Author(s)
      Yasui, S., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfectness using ensemble Kalman filtering2010

    • Author(s)
      Koyama, H., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Mon.Wea.Rev. (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Atmospheric boundary layer response to the meso-scale SST anomalies in the Kuroshio extension2010

    • Author(s)
      Koseki, S., M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Climate (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analysis on the dynamics of a wave-like teleconnection pattern along the summertime Asian jet based on a reanalysis dataset and climate model simulations.2009

    • Author(s)
      Kosaka, Y., H.Nakamura, M.Watanabe, M.Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      J.Meteor.Soc.Japan 87

      Pages: 561-580

    • NAID

      110007337778

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Self-limiting feedback between baroclinic waves and a NAO-like sheared zonal flow.2009

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys.Res.Lett. 36

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analysis on the dynamics of a wave-like teleconnection pattern along the summertime Asian jet based on a reanalysis dataset and climate model simulations2009

    • Author(s)
      Kosaka, Y., H.Nakamura, M.Watanabe, M.Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      J.Meteor.Soc.Japan 87

      Pages: 561-580

    • NAID

      110007337778

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Self-limiting feedback between baroclinic waves and a NAO-like sheare d zonal flow2009

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Role of the midlatitude air-sea interaction in orographically forced climate.2008

    • Author(s)
      Koseki, S, M.Watanabe, M.Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      J.Meteor.Soc.Japan 86

      Pages: 335-351

    • NAID

      110006649381

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The growth and triggering mechanisms of the PNA : A MJO-PNA coherence.2008

    • Author(s)
      Mori, M, M.Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J.Meteor.Soc.Japan 86

      Pages: 213-236

    • NAID

      110006633439

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The growth and triggering mechanisms of the PNA : A MJO-PNA coherence2008

    • Author(s)
      Mori, M., and M. Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 86

      Pages: 213-236

    • NAID

      110006633439

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] ENSO simulation in MIROC : Perspectives toward CMIP52010

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      CLIVAR WS on "New strategies for evaluating ENSO processes in climate models"
    • Place of Presentation
      France, Paris
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-16
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候変化シミュレーションにおけるアジアモンスーン:現状と方向性2010

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      モンスーンサイエンスWS
    • Place of Presentation
      JAMSTEC東京事務所、東京
    • Year and Date
      2010-08-19
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候システムにおける海2010

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      海洋アライアンスシンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      東大小柴ホール、東京
    • Year and Date
      2010-07-12
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 大気海洋結合モデルによる夏季ブロッキング高気圧の再現性とその要因2010

    • Author(s)
      森正人、木本昌秀、渡部雅浩、石井正好
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2010年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Japanese climate modeling activity toward AR52009

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      ICISTS-KAIST conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Daejon, Korea
    • Year and Date
      2009-08-21
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfectness using ensemble Kalman filtering2009

    • Author(s)
      Koyama, H., M.Watanabe
    • Organizer
      AOGS
    • Place of Presentation
      Singapole, Singapole
    • Year and Date
      2009-08-12
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Challenges in current climate modeling toward AR52009

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      University Allied Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Seoul, Korea
    • Year and Date
      2009-06-22
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfectness using ensemble Kalman filtering.2009

    • Author(s)
      Koyama, H., M. Watanabe
    • Organizer
      AOGS 2009
    • Place of Presentation
      Singapore
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] アジアジェット上に見られる卓越変動の強制過程:NLBMを用いた数値実験2009

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩、安井壮一郎
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2009年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 定在波と非定常擾乱による南北熱輸送に見られる補償関係2009

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩、岩崎俊樹、小玉知央、廣田渚郎
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2009年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Compensating energy transports associated with stationary and transienteddies.2009

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe M.
    • Organizer
      IAMAS 2009
    • Place of Presentation
      Montreal
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Relevance of neutral singular vectors for representing seasonal-mean teleconnections.2008

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe M.
    • Organizer
      Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans
    • Place of Presentation
      Trieste
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A possible modal view for understanding extratropical climate variability.2008

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe M.
    • Organizer
      UAW 2008
    • Place of Presentation
      Chiba
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] モデル誤差を伴う予報誤差に対するEnKFに基づいた改善法2008

    • Author(s)
      小山博司、渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2008年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 気候変化と異常気象.(伊藤忠シンポジウム)2011

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Publisher
      伊藤忠東京/大阪本社
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 気候変動と異常気象.(一般講演会「異常気象の謎に挑む」)2010

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Publisher
      東京大学安田講堂
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 気候変化シミュレーションにおけるアジアモンスーン:現状と方向性.モンスーンサイエンスWS2010

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Publisher
      JAMSTEC東京事務所
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 日本経済新聞朝刊(「猛暑・大雪…異常気象の1年『海水温』『北極振動』引き金、来年も警戒必要に」)2010

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 朝日新聞朝刊(「今夏の猛暑温暖化の影響2~4割」)2010

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 変わりゆく気候,変わりゆく気候研究(東京大学気候システム研究センター公開講座)2009

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Publisher
      東京大学安田講堂
    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks] 異常気象分析診断ウェブサイト

    • URL

      http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~hiro/ex/

    • Related Report
      2010 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~hiro/ex/

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~hiro/ex/

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/-hiro/ex/

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2008-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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