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Evaluating Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Regimes : An Empirical Study by Controlling for the Endogeneity of Policy Selection

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20730218
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Public finance/Monetary economics
Research InstitutionKobe City University of Foreign Studies

Principal Investigator

ESAKA Taro  Kobe City University of Foreign Studies, 外国語学部, 准教授 (60347515)

Project Period (FY) 2008 – 2009
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2009)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords為替制度 / 資本自由化 / 通貨危機 / 政策評価 / 国際金融 / 固定相場制 / 資本規制 / 通背危機
Research Abstract

This study evaluates the effect of de facto exchange rate regimes on the occurrence of currency crises. To estimate the effect of exchange rate regimes properly, we must control the simultaneous problem, the problem of reverse causality, and the self-selection problem of regime adoption. However, previous studies do not explicitly address these problems. To address these problems, we employ a variety of microeconometric methods and examine the effect of de facto exchange rate regimes on the occurrence of currency crises and the effect of exchange rate regimes under restricted or liberalized capital flows on the incidence of currency crises. We find that pegged regimes significantly decrease the likelihood of currency crises compared with floating regimes. We also find interesting evidence that pegged regimes with capital account liberalization significantly lower the likelihood of currency crises compared with other regimes. These results are robust to a wide variety of econometric methods and samples.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2009 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2008 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All 2010 2008

All Journal Article (8 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results) Presentation (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: Are Pegged Regimes with Capital Account Liberalization Really More Prone to Speculative Attacks?2010

    • Author(s)
      Esaka, Taro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Banking and Finance 34,Issue6

      Pages: 1109-1128

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 実際の固定相場制の通貨危機発生への影響:Propensity Score Matching法による分析2010

    • Author(s)
      江阪太郎
    • Journal Title

      Kobe City University of Foreign Studies Working Paper Series No.36

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report 2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Controls, and Currency Crises: Does the Bipolar View Hold?2010

    • Author(s)
      Esaka, Taro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 20,Issue1

      Pages: 91-108

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Controls, and Currency Crises : Does the Bipolar View Hold?2010

    • Author(s)
      Taro Esaka
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 20

      Pages: 91-108

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] De facto exchamlge rate regimes and currency crises : Are pegged regimes with capital account liberalization really more prone to speculative attacks?2010

    • Author(s)
      Taro Esaka
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Banking and Finance 34

      Pages: 1109-1128

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Do Consistent Pegs Matter? Deviations of Actual Exchange Rate Regimes from Announced Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises2008

    • Author(s)
      Esaka, Taro
    • Journal Title

      Kobe City University of Foreign Studies Working Paper Series No.32

    • Related Report
      2009 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises : Are Pegged Regimes with Capital Account Liberalization Really More Prone to Speculative Attacks2008

    • Author(s)
      Taro Esaka
    • Journal Title

      Kobe City University of Foreign Studies Working Paper Series No.31

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Do Consistent Pegs Matter? Deviations of Actual Exchange Rate Regimes from Announced Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises2008

    • Author(s)
      Taro Esaka
    • Journal Title

      Kobe City University of Foreign Studies Working Paper Series No.32

    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 為替制度と通貨危機 : 資本自由化の下での固定相場制は通貨危機を発生させやすいのか2008

    • Author(s)
      江阪太郎
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      近畿大学
    • Year and Date
      2008-09-14
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 公表した為替制度から実際の為替制度の乖離が通貨危機の発生に影響を与えていたか2008

    • Author(s)
      江阪太郎
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学
    • Year and Date
      2008-05-31
    • Related Report
      2008 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2008-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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