| Project/Area Number |
20730218
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
|
| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
|---|
| Research Field |
Public finance/Monetary economics
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Kobe City University of Foreign Studies |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
ESAKA Taro Kobe City University of Foreign Studies, 外国語学部, 准教授 (60347515)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2009
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2009)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | 為替制度 / 資本自由化 / 通貨危機 / 政策評価 / 国際金融 / 固定相場制 / 資本規制 / 通背危機 |
|---|
| Research Abstract |
This study evaluates the effect of de facto exchange rate regimes on the occurrence of currency crises. To estimate the effect of exchange rate regimes properly, we must control the simultaneous problem, the problem of reverse causality, and the self-selection problem of regime adoption. However, previous studies do not explicitly address these problems. To address these problems, we employ a variety of microeconometric methods and examine the effect of de facto exchange rate regimes on the occurrence of currency crises and the effect of exchange rate regimes under restricted or liberalized capital flows on the incidence of currency crises. We find that pegged regimes significantly decrease the likelihood of currency crises compared with floating regimes. We also find interesting evidence that pegged regimes with capital account liberalization significantly lower the likelihood of currency crises compared with other regimes. These results are robust to a wide variety of econometric methods and samples.
|
