| Project/Area Number |
20730302
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Accounting
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| Research Institution | Yokohama City University |
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Principal Investigator |
CHANG Ying-hsin Yokohama City University, 国際総合科学部, 准教授 (70404978)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2009
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2009)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
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| Keywords | 業績予想 / アナリスト予想 / 経営者予想 / 証券アナリスト予想 / 業績予測 / 決算短信 / 証券アナリスト予測 |
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| Research Abstract |
Because of the TSE requested listed company to disclosure the quarterly summary of earnings digest from 2004, I collect samples from the years 2004 to 2005. Finally, 946 firm samples are selected from 1st sections of TSE that management forecasts and analysts' forecast are both obtainable. Key results are following.
1. When management make a upward/downward revision, the revised forecasts are lower/higher than actual earning toward pessimistic/optimistic. I conjecture that management revise forecasts lower than actually need.
2. When security analysts make a upward/downward revision, the revised forecasts' trends are same with the revised managements forecasts that lower/higher than actual earning toward pessimistic/optimistic. In addition the trends of revised analysts' forecasts are more obvious than revised management forecasts.
3. The accuracy of revised analysts' forecasts that in an opposite direction to revised forecasts by management are lower. Further, when management revised forecasts and the analysts not, the accuracy of unrevised analysts' forecasts are lower than forecasts revised by management.
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