Emission scenario dependency of precipitation on global warming

• Project/Area Number: 20740274
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: SHIOGAMA Hideo National Institute for Environmental Studies, 大気圏環境研究領域, NIES特別研究員 (30391113)
• Project Period (FY): 2008 – 2009
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2009)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000); Fiscal Year 2009: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000); Fiscal Year 2008: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 気象学

Research Abstract

The precipitation sensitivity per 1K of global warming in 21st century climate projections is smaller in an emission scenario with larger greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions, according to the MIROC3.2 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We examined the reasons for the precipitation sensitivity to emission scenarios by performing separated individual forcing runs under high and low emission scenarios. It was found that the dependency on emission scenario is mainly caused by differences in black and organic carbon aerosol forcing between the emission scenarios and that the precipitation is more sensitive to carbon aerosols than well-mixed greenhouse gases. We also investigated the reason for the larger precipitation sensitivity (larger magnitude of precipitation decrease per 1K cooling of temperature) in the carbon aerosol runs.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Emission scenario dependency of precipitation on global warming in the MIROC3. 2 model (2010)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Seita Emori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tatsuya Nagashima, Tomoo Ogura, Toru Nozawa, Toshihiko Takemura
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Vol.23,No.9 Pages: 2404-2417
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Emission scenario dependency of precipitation on global warming in the MIROC3.2 model (2010)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Seita Emori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tatsuya Nagashima, Tomoo Ogura, Tom Nozawa, Toshihiko Takemura
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate 23 Pages: 2404-2417
  • Peer Reviewed