• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Winter/spring climate changes during the past 300 years based on the continuous records of lake/river freezing and snowfall

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20H01389
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 04010:Geography-related
Research InstitutionTokyo Metropolitan University

Principal Investigator

Mikami Takehiko  東京都立大学, 都市環境科学研究科, 客員教授 (10114662)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 高橋 洋  東京都立大学, 都市環境科学研究科, 助教 (50397478)
財城 真寿美  成蹊大学, 経済学部, 教授 (50534054)
長谷川 直子 (石黒直子)  お茶の水女子大学, 基幹研究院, 准教授 (60433231)
平野 淳平  帝京大学, 文学部, 准教授 (80567503)
Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥5,850,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,350,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥5,330,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,230,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000)
Keywords気候変動 / 温暖化 / 諏訪湖 / 十三湖 / 結氷記録 / 降雪率 / 古日記 / 冬季気温 / 再解析データ / 湖沼凍結 / 降雪 / 領域気候モデル / 日記天候記録
Outline of Research at the Start

地球規模の温暖化が問題となっており、社会的関心も高いが、気象観測データに基づいた数十年スケールの実証的研究や気候モデルによる将来の温暖化予測に関する研究が主体で、過去数百年スケールで気候変動の解明を目指す研究はほとんどなされていない。
本研究は、日本全国に残されている江戸時代以降の湖沼・河川の凍結記録や降雪・積雪に関する連続記録を収集・デジタル化し、過去300年間における日本の冬季・春季の気候変動の実態を明らかにし、その変動要因を北半球スケールの大気循環場の変動とも関連づけながら解明することを計画している。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Continuous records of freezing at Lake Jusan since the 18th century revealed long-term winter climate variations. Also, based on daily weather records in historical diaries during the 1700s and 1860s, we calculated winter snowfall ratios (number of snowfall days/number of precipitation days) in Hirosaki and Nagasaki to reconstruct winter/spring temperature variations and clarified climatic changes over the past 300 years. The results show that while a warming trend was observed in northeastern Japan from the 18th to the middle of the 19th century, the opposite trend was observed in southwestern Japan. In southwestern Japan, the warming peaked in the 1850s and 1860s, followed by discontinuous climate change (regime shift) in the 1950s and 1980s.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

気象観測データのない冬春季の気候変動を復元・推定する手法として,長期的な湖の結氷記録や古日記に記載された天候記録による降雪率が統計学的に有意であることが実証されたことは,過去数百年間の冬季気候変動の解明に大きく貢献し,学術的意義が高いと言える。また,冬春季の気候変動が,長期的に緩やかに温暖化するのではなく,数十年~百年の時間スケールで不連続的な階段状の変化をすることが明らかになったことは,冬春季の気候変動に関連する産業や人々の生活にも影響するため,社会的にも意義が高い。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (38 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Journal Article (9 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 6 results,  Open Access: 5 results) Presentation (26 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 15 results,  Invited: 2 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Surface air temperature response to increasing anthropogenic aerosols in Asian monsoon region in boreal winter2023

    • Author(s)
      Kitabayashi S. and Takahashi H.G.
    • Journal Title

      Geographical reports of Tokyo Metropolitan University

      Volume: 58 Pages: 95-102

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Reconstruction and characterization of droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin, China, 1426?20172023

    • Author(s)
      Zhang Xiaodan、Ren Guoyu、Bing He、Mikami Takehiko、Matsumoto Jun、Zhang Panfeng、Yang Guowei
    • Journal Title

      Climatic Change

      Volume: 176 Issue: 5 Pages: 62-62

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10584-023-03538-9

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Data Rescue of Rainfall Records from the Dutch East Indies2023

    • Author(s)
      Masumi ZAIKI, Theo BRANDSMA
    • Journal Title

      Geographical Reports of Tokyo Metropolitan University

      Volume: 58 Pages: 79-85

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Analysis of early japanese meteorological data and historical weather documents to reconstruct the winter climate between the 1840s and the early 1850s2022

    • Author(s)
      Hirano Junpei、Mikami Takehiko、Zaiki Masumi
    • Journal Title

      Climate of the Past

      Volume: 18 Issue: 2 Pages: 327

    • DOI

      10.5194/cp-18-327-2022

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific since the mid-nineteenth century2021

    • Author(s)
      Kubota Hisayuki、Matsumoto Jun、Zaiki Masumi、Tsukahara Togo、Mikami Takehiko、Allan Rob、Wilkinson Clive、Wilkinson Sally、Wood Kevin、Mollan Mark
    • Journal Title

      Climatic Change

      Volume: 164 Issue: 3-4 Pages: 1-19

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10584-021-02984-7

    • NAID

      120007028973

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report 2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Role of Oceanic Memory Effects in the Barents Sea in the Seasonal Linkage Between the Winter and Summer Arctic Oscillation2021

    • Author(s)
      Hoshi Ryosuke、Takahashi Hiroshi G.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 126 Issue: 23

    • DOI

      10.1029/2021jd034799

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Vertical structure of the cool island in a large urban park2021

    • Author(s)
      Sugawara Hirofumi、Narita Ken-ichi、Mikami Takehiko
    • Journal Title

      Urban Climate

      Volume: 35 Pages: 100744-100744

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100744

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 長崎港をとりまく自然条件と近代科学窓口としての役割2021

    • Author(s)
      財城 真寿美
    • Journal Title

      地図情報

      Volume: 41-1 Pages: 4-7

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Long‐term trends in snowfall characteristics and extremes in Japan from 1961 to 2012.2021

    • Author(s)
      Takahashi, HG.
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Climatology

      Volume: 41 Issue: 4 Pages: 2316-2329

    • DOI

      10.1002/joc.6960

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Variations in the Distribution of Solar Radiation in Japan during the Tempo Famine Period As Reconstructed Using Using Historical Weather Records2023

    • Author(s)
      Mika Ichino, Takehiko Mikami, Kooiti Masuda, Yasuo Takatsuki
    • Organizer
      Annual Conference of the Association for Asian Studies
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 北極振動と日本の冬季気温との相関にみられる数十年規模変動2023

    • Author(s)
      平野淳平,三上岳彦
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2023春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 夏季の東京における海面気圧日変化の経年変化2023

    • Author(s)
      仁科淳司,三上岳彦
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2023春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日記天候記録を用いた東京における1720年以降の日射量復元2023

    • Author(s)
      市野美夏,増田耕一,三上岳彦
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2023春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本の灯台気象観測記録による19世紀後半以降の冬季の気圧配置指標と気温の変動との関係2023

    • Author(s)
      大久保優,赤坂郁美,平野淳平,財城真寿美,三上岳彦
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2023春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Data rescue of instrumental meteorological records in Japan since the 19th century2023

    • Author(s)
      Masumi Zaiki
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Climate, Water, Land, and Life in Monsoon Asia
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Climate reconstruction in Japan around the 1850s based on historical weather records and early instrumental data2023

    • Author(s)
      Junpei Hirano
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Climate, Water, land, and life in Monsoon Asia
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 諏訪湖御神渡り経路の長期変遷に関する一考察2022

    • Author(s)
      長谷川直子,三上岳彦,平野淳平,小口徹
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2022秋季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本の灯台気象観測記録による19世紀後半以降の冬季の気圧と気温分布に関する解析2022

    • Author(s)
      大久保優,赤坂郁美,平野淳平,財城真寿美,三上岳彦
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2022秋季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Winter/spring Climatic Changes in Northern Japan during 1705-1860 Reconstructed from Snowfall/Precipitation Ratios and Lake-freezing Records2022

    • Author(s)
      Mikami,t., Hasegawa,N., Hirano,J. and Batten,B.
    • Organizer
      The 36th International Symposium on the Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans 2022
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Combined Analysis of Early Instrumental Data and Historical Daily Weather Documents for Winter Climate Reconstruction in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Junpei Hirano, Takehiko Mikami, Masumi Zaiki
    • Organizer
      The Sixth Biennial Conference of East Asian Environmental History (EAEH 2021)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Characteristics of rainfall variability and the abnormal condition in the dry year in Java based on the 1901-1916 Indonesian rainfall data2021

    • Author(s)
      Masumi Zaiki
    • Organizer
      The 11th European Association for Southeast Asian Studies Conference
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Data rescue of Japan data in the 19th century2021

    • Author(s)
      Junpei Hirano
    • Organizer
      ACRE2021 Virtual Workshop
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 過去70年間に関東地方に来襲した台風の経路と強さの変化2021

    • Author(s)
      永田玲奈,三上岳彦,平野淳平
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2021春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Recent progress in the historical climatology of Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Mikami,T.
    • Organizer
      PAGES CRIAS 3rd Workshop
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Re-examination of original documents of freezing and Omiwatari dates for Lake Suwa2021

    • Author(s)
      Hasegawa,N., Mikami,T., Hirano,J. and Batten,B.
    • Organizer
      PAGES CRIAS 3rd Workshop
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Comparison of winter daily weather patterns in Japan reconstructed from old diaries and 20th century reanalysis data during the 19th century2021

    • Author(s)
      Hirano,J. and Mikami,T.
    • Organizer
      PAGES CRIAS 3rd Workshop
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Long-term winter/spring climatic changes in Northern Japan reconstructed from snowfall rates and lake-freezing records2020

    • Author(s)
      Mikami,T., Hirano,J., Hasegawa,N., and Batten,B.
    • Organizer
      AGU 2020 Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Newly discovered long-term record of freezing/breaking-up dates of Lake Jusan in Northern Japan during 1705-1860 as compared with those of Lake Suwa2020

    • Author(s)
      Hasegawa,N., Mikami,T., Hirano,J., and Batten,B.
    • Organizer
      AGU 2020 Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Comparison of winter daily weather patterns in Japan reconstructed from old diaries and 20th century reanalysis data during the 19th century2020

    • Author(s)
      Hirano,J. and Mikami,T.
    • Organizer
      AGU 2020 Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 観測地点の移動と天候が気温日変化に及ぼす影響2020

    • Author(s)
      財城真寿美, 三上岳彦
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2020秋季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 弘前の冬春季・降雪率の長期変動と十三湖の結氷期間との関係2020

    • Author(s)
      三上岳彦, 長谷川直子, 平野淳平
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2020秋季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 諏訪湖の結氷・御神渡り記録の出典ごとの精査2020

    • Author(s)
      長谷川直子, 三上岳彦, 平野淳平
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2020秋季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日記天候記録から復元した19世紀冬季の天候分布と20世紀再解析データの比較2020

    • Author(s)
      平野淳平, 三上岳彦
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会2020秋季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 19世紀日本の天候と市場経済の連関-歴史資料からの日射量推定と米価による解析-2020

    • Author(s)
      市野美夏, 増田耕一, 三上岳彦, 高槻泰郎
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A unique website JCDP that aims to disseminate scientific information on historical climate data2020

    • Author(s)
      Mikami,T.
    • Organizer
      International Symposium “Global Collaboration on Data beyond Disciplines”
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Book] 気候変動から読みなおす日本史 第2巻(第4章 分担執筆)2021

    • Author(s)
      中塚 武 監修(平野淳平・財城真寿美 分担執筆)
    • Total Pages
      288
    • Publisher
      臨川書店
    • ISBN
      9784653045021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] Japan-Asia Climate Data Program (JCDP)

    • URL

      https://jcdp.jp/

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] JCDP (Japan-Asia Climate Data Program)

    • URL

      https://jcdp.jp/

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report 2020 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2024-01-30  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi