Uncertainty quantification considering global sensitivity for seismic risk analysis of existing bridge structural systems

• Project/Area Number: 20H02229
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 22020:Structure engineering and earthquake engineering-related
• Research Institution: University of Tsukuba
• Principal Investigator: Nishio Mayuko 筑波大学, システム情報系, 准教授 (00586795)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥17,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,080,000); Fiscal Year 2022: ¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥5,590,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,290,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥7,540,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,740,000)
• Keywords: 不確定性定量化 / 事後分布 / 非線形構造振動 / 構造信頼性 / 画像計測 / 地震フラジリティ / 代替モデル / スパース推定

Outline of Research at the Start

重要交通網を形成する都市道路高架橋などの既存橋梁構造システムにおいて，経年劣化や損傷を考慮する地震リスク評価が，適切な維持管理と防災・減災の計画策定のために必要となっている．本研究では，無線センサなどを用いる構造振動モニタリングのデータを活用して，橋梁の地震応答解析モデルのデータ同化法を構築する．データ同化によって構造状態を考慮するリスク解析の有効性を，振動実験と実橋梁での検証により示す．

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Seismic risk assessment considering deterioration and damage is required for appropriate maintenance and planning for disaster prevention and mitigation of existing bridge systems that form transportation networks. This study presented the data assimilation that derives posterior distributions avoiding the ill-posed condition by extracting parameters with high "sensitivity to uncertainty" that depends on damage conditions and characteristics of input earthquake motions. Its effectiveness was shown by the experimental study that is target to the data assimilation of load capacity analysis of a steel member specimen with locally introduced corrosion using vision-based strain sensing. In addition, the surrogate modeling method for structural reliability analysis dealing with high-dimensional uncertainties of structural properties and seismic motions was constructed. The applicability was shown by performing the seismic system fragility analysis of an elevated bridge structure.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

データ同化において不確定性感度を考慮することで適切なモデルパラメータ事後分布が推定できることを示したこと，そして地震フラジリティ解析の計算コストを大幅に低減する機械学習を活用した代替モデル法を構築した成果は学術的意義が大きい．また，インフラ構造物運用現場において，運用者が最も知りたい保有性能を得るためのデータ活用法と計算手法を示した社会的意義も大きい．

Research Products

• [Journal Article] CONSTRUCTION OF GAUSSIAN PROCESS REGRESSION SURROGATE MODEL FOR NONLINEAR SEISMIC RESPONSE ANALYSIS USING ARD KERNEL (2021)
  • Author(s): SAIDA Taisei、NISHIO Mayuko
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A2 (Applied Mechanics (AM)) Volume: 77 Issue: 2 Pages: I_93-I_104
  • DOI: 10.2208/jscejam.77.2_I_93
  • NAID: 130008150520
  • ISSN: 2185-4661
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Evaluation of dynamic responses of bridges considering traffic flow and surface roughness (2020)
  • Author(s): Ho Hoai、Nishio Mayuko
  • Journal Title: Engineering Structures Volume: 225 Pages: 111256-111256
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.engstruct.2020.111256
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Gaussian Process Regression Surrogate Model for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Highway Bridge Structure System (2023)
  • Author(s): Taisei Saida, Rashid Muhhamad, Mayuko Nishio
  • Organizer: 10th Experimental Vibration Analysis for Civil Engineering Structures (EVACES 2023)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 深層カーネル学習サロゲートモデルによる高次元不確定性をもつ構造信頼性解析の効率化 (2023)
  • Author(s): 才田 大聖, Rashid Muhhamad, 西尾 真由子
  • Organizer: 第28回計算工学講演会
• [Presentation] Capacity evaluation of existing bridges by integration of SHM data and numerical analysis (2022)
  • Author(s): Mayuko Nishio
  • Organizer: 11th International Conference on Structural Health Monitoring of Intelligent Infrastructure (SHMII-11)
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] System Fragility Analysis of a Geometrically Complex Bridge System for Seismic Risk Evaluation of Existing Highway Bridge Network (2022)
  • Author(s): Rashid Muhhamad, Mayuko Nishio
  • Organizer: 8th World Conference on Structural Control and Monitoring (8WCSCM)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] ARDカーネルによる非線形地震応答解析のガウス過程回帰代替モデル構築 (2021)
  • Author(s): 才田大聖, 西尾真由子
  • Organizer: 第24回応用力学シンポジウム
• [Presentation] FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS OF AN EXISTING SEISMICALLY ISOLATED BRIDGE STRUCTURE (2021)
  • Author(s): Rashid Muhammad, Mayuko Nishio
  • Organizer: 76th JSCE Annual meeting (The 23rd International Summer Symposium)
• [Presentation] 局所損傷を有する構造部材の性能評価に向けた画像ひずみの適用性検討 (2021)
  • Author(s): 佐藤開, 西尾真由子
  • Organizer: 令和3年度土木学会全国大会第76回年次学術講演会
• [Presentation] Seismic risk analysis of existing bridges considering structural condition uncertainties (2021)
  • Author(s): Nishio, M., Shakya, M., Tran, T.
  • Organizer: 10th International Conference on Structural Health Monitoring of Intelligent Infrastructure
• [Presentation] Dynamic response evaluation of an existing bridge structure based on Finite Element Modelling (2021)
  • Author(s): Rashid Muhammad, Mayuko Nishio
  • Organizer: 9th Experimental Vibration Analysis for Civil Engineering Structures (EVACES 2021)
• [Presentation] Seismic risk analysis of existing bridges considering structural condition uncertainties (2021)
  • Author(s): Nishio, M., Shakya, M., Tran, T.
  • Organizer: 10th International Conference on Structural Health Monitoring of Intelligent Infrastructure (SHMII)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 地震発生後の車両通行性に着目した既存橋梁システムのフラジリティ解析 (2020)
  • Author(s): サキャ摩耶, 西尾真由子
  • Organizer: 第23回応用力学シンポジウム
• [Book] 構造物のモニタリング技術 (2020)
  • Author(s): 藤野 陽三、日本鋼構造協会、池田 芳樹、阿部 雅人、伊山 潤、大島 義信、鹿嶋 俊英、日下 彰宏、楠 浩一、倉田 真宏、白石 理人、鈴木 誠、竹谷 晃一、長山 智則、西尾 真由子、野村 泰稔、松本 泰尚、村山 英晶
  • Total Pages: 306
  • Publisher: コロナ社
  • ISBN: 9784339052725