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Development of bulk lightning model for the next-generation numerical weather prediction

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20H04196
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 60100:Computational science-related
Research InstitutionHokkaido University

Principal Investigator

Sato Yousuke  北海道大学, 理学研究院, 准教授 (10633505)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 林 修吾  気象庁気象研究所, 気象予報研究部, 主任研究官 (20354441)
橋本 明弘  気象庁気象研究所, 気象予報研究部, 室長 (20462525)
本田 匠  北海道大学, 理学研究院, 特任助教 (60756857)
三浦 裕亮  東京大学, 大学院理学系研究科(理学部), 准教授 (70415991)
Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Keywords雷放電 / 雲物理 / 数値予報 / 気象モデル / 雲微物理 / 雲微物理モデル / HPCI / 雷 / 数値気象モデル / データ同化 / ポアソンソルバー
Outline of Research at the Start

雷を直接扱うことのできる雷モデルを結合した数値気象モデル(雷気象モデル)と大型計算機を用いて「現在の数値天気予報では予測されていない雷を直接扱い、 将来の数値天気予報での雷予測の礎となる雷気象モデルと雷データ同化技術を開発し、検証する」ことを目的とする。さらに次世代の大型計算機で実現されることが見込まれる「全球規模での雷を直接扱った数値実験を見据えて、全球規模で実行可能な雷気象モデルの開発」に世界に先駆けて着手する。 本研究の成果は、雷という人間生活に甚大な影響及ぼす現象の理解を深め、数値気象モデルでの雷予報に必要な知見を得ることに直結し、防災・減災に資する成果となる。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we developed a bulk lightning model aiming to directly forecast lightning for next-generation numerical weather prediction. We extended the bulk lightning model to real case simulation, and validated it by comparing the model with the observation. Through the comparison, we elucidated the advantages of the bulk lightning model compared with the empirical parameterization to diagnose the lightning frequency. Additionally, we developed data assimilation techniques using the bulk lightning model and investigated the potential contribution of lightning observations to improving numerical forecasts through observational system simulation experiments.
As well as these developments outlined above, we also conducted fundamental developments such as speeding up the bulk lightning model and developing a Poisson solver for global scale model to utilize the bulk lightning model in next-generation numerical weather prediction.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

高度に電子化された現代社会において、雷は大きな脅威であり、その基礎的な理解の向上や雷の予測技術を開発することは、学術的な観点のみならず、防災・減災の観点からも大きな意義がある。雷の被害を防止するための情報は現在でも存在しているが、多くは観測の外挿に基づくものであり、雷が起こる直前でなければ予測は難しい。
そこで、数値シミュレーションによって1日前には精度の高い予報ができる「数値天気予報」において、雷を直接予報できる気象雷モデルを現実事例に拡張し、将来の数値天気予報で雷を直接予報する基盤的な開発を実施した。同時に雷を直接扱うことで初めて可能になる数値実験を実施した。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (48 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Journal Article (12 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 12 results,  Open Access: 12 results) Presentation (35 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 13 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Machine Learning Enables Real‐Time Proactive Quality Control: A Proof‐Of‐Concept Study2024

    • Author(s)
      Honda T.、Yamazaki A.
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 51 Issue: 6

    • DOI

      10.1029/2023gl107938

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Regression-Based Ensemble Perturbations for the Zero-Gradient Issue Posed in Lightning-Flash Data Assimilation with an Ensemble Kalman Filter2023

    • Author(s)
      Honda Takumi、Sato Yousuke、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 151 Issue: 10 Pages: 2573-2586

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-22-0334.1

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Development of a Polar Mesocyclone and Associated Environmental Characteristics During the Heavy Snowfall Event in Sapporo, Japan, in Early February 20222023

    • Author(s)
      Honda T.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 128 Issue: 12

    • DOI

      10.1029/2022jd037774

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Advantage of bulk lightning models for predicting lightning frequency over Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Tomioka Takumi、Sato Yousuke、Hayashi Syugo、Yoshida Satoru、Iwashita Takeshi
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 10 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-023-00592-w

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] A numerical study of lightning-induced NOx and formation of NOy observed at the summit of Mt. Fuji using an explicit bulk lightning and photochemistry model2023

    • Author(s)
      Sato Yousuke、Kajino Mizuo、Hayashi Syugo、Wada Ryuichi
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Environment: X

      Volume: 18 Pages: 100218-100218

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.aeaoa.2023.100218

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Advantage of 30‐s‐Updating Numerical Weather Prediction With a Phased‐Array Weather Radar Over Operational Nowcast for a Convective Precipitation System2022

    • Author(s)
      Honda T.、Amemiya A.、Otsuka S.、Taylor J.、Maejima Y.、Nishizawa S.、Yamaura T.、Sueki K.、Tomita H.、Miyoshi T.
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 49 Issue: 11 Pages: 49-60

    • DOI

      10.1029/2021gl096927

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Development of the Real‐Time 30‐s‐Update Big Data Assimilation System for Convective Rainfall Prediction With a Phased Array Weather Radar: Description and Preliminary Evaluation2022

    • Author(s)
      Honda T.、Amemiya A.、Otsuka S.、Lien G.‐Y.、Taylor J.、Maejima Y.、Nishizawa S.、Yamaura T.、Sueki K.、Tomita H.、Satoh S.、Ishikawa Y.、Miyoshi T.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

      Volume: 14 Issue: 6 Pages: 14-20

    • DOI

      10.1029/2021ms002823

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Difference in the lightning frequency between the July 2018 heavy rainfall event over central Japan and the 2017 northern Kyushu heavy rainfall event in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Sato Yousuke、Hayashi Syugo、Hashimoto Akihiro
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: 23 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1002/asl.1067

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of Cloud Microphysical Schemes for Winter Snowfall Events in Hokkaido: A Case Study of Snowfall by Winter Monsoon2021

    • Author(s)
      Kondo Makoto、Sato Yousuke、Inatsu Masaru、Katsuyama Yuta
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 17 Issue: 0 Pages: 74-80

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2021-012

    • NAID

      130008029811

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Predictability of the July 2018 Heavy Rain Event in Japan Associated with Typhoon Prapiroon and Southern Convective Disturbances2021

    • Author(s)
      Honda Takumi、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 17 Issue: 0 Pages: 113-119

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2021-018

    • NAID

      130008046889

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Potential Impacts of Lightning Flash Observations on Numerical Weather Prediction With Explicit Lightning Processes2021

    • Author(s)
      Honda Takumi、Sato Yousuke、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 126 Issue: 19

    • DOI

      10.1029/2021jd034611

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Lightning Frequency in an Idealized Hurricane-Like Vortex from Initial to Steady-State Using a Coupled Meteorological and Explicit Bulk Lightning Model2021

    • Author(s)
      Sato Yousuke、Miyamoto Yoshiaki、Tomita Hirofumi
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 149 Issue: 3 Pages: 753-771

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-20-0110.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Reservoir computingを用いた観測インパクト推定2023

    • Author(s)
      本田匠, 山崎哲
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2023年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Assimilation of phased-array weather radar observations in a convective precipitation event using a 50 m grid- spacing NWP model2023

    • Author(s)
      T. Honda
    • Organizer
      40th Conference on Radar Meteorology,
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Process-oriented simulations of winter snowfall in Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      A. Hashimoto, M. Ishizaka, H. Motoyoshi, K. Yamashita, S. Nakai, S. Yamaguchi
    • Organizer
      The 6th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Model
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 山岳地域における降雪粒子特性に関する数値実験2023

    • Author(s)
      橋本明弘
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2023年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 降雪粒子特性に対する山岳地形効果に関する数値実験2023

    • Author(s)
      橋本明弘
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会2023
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Overview of bulk lightning model coupled with a Japanese community model SCALE2023

    • Author(s)
      Y. Sato
    • Organizer
      The 6th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Model
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A case study of lightning-induced NOx observed at the summit of Mt. Fuji using a bulk lightning model and photochemistry model2023

    • Author(s)
      Y. Sato, M. Kajino, S. Hayashi, R. Wada
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2023
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Advantage of bulk lightning models for simulating lightning event over Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Y. Sato, T. Tomioka, S. Hayashi, S. Yoshida, T. Iwashita
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2023
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A numerical study of the lightning-induced nitrogen oxides by using a meteorological model coupled with a bulk lightning model and an offline chemical transport model, Part II : Suggestion from the simulation2023

    • Author(s)
      Y. Sato, M. Kajino, S. Hayashi, R. Wada
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合 連合大会2023
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気象雷モデルの開発とその応用の概要2023

    • Author(s)
      佐藤陽祐、本田匠、林修吾、梶野瑞王、吉川栄一、和田龍一
    • Organizer
      日本大気電気学会第101回研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気象雷モデルとオフライン化学輸送モデルを用いた雷起源の窒素酸化物に 関する数値実験2022

    • Author(s)
      佐藤陽祐、梶野瑞王、林修吾
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合連合大会2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Overview of studies with a bulk lightning model coupled with an atmospheric model SCALE2022

    • Author(s)
      Yousuke Sato, Syugo Hayashi, Takumi Honda, Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Akihiro Hashimoto, Takumi Tomioka
    • Organizer
      17th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 静止気象衛星による観測データの流線トポロジー データ解析を用いたデータ同化へ向けて2022

    • Author(s)
      本田匠、稲津將
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 領域アンサンブルデータ同化システムを用いた 2022 年 2 月初めの札幌における大雪の事例解析2022

    • Author(s)
      本田匠
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 領域アンサンブルデータ同化システムを用いた 2022 年 2 月初めの札幌における大雪の事例解析2022

    • Author(s)
      本田匠
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 雷を直接考慮した気象雷モデルの予測性能について2022

    • Author(s)
      富岡拓海、佐藤陽祐、林修吾
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A numerical study on the contribution of graupel to snowfall by a meteorological model evaluated with the in-situ measurements by a new type volume scanning video disdrometer.2022

    • Author(s)
      Makoto Kondo, Yousuke Sato, Yuta Katsuyama, Masaru Inatsu
    • Organizer
      16th Conference on Cloud Physics
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Assimilation of Lightning Flash Observations Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with Additive Ensemble Perturbations: A Simulation Study2022

    • Author(s)
      Takumi Honda, Yousuke Sato, Tatemasa Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2022
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Development of a lightning model and implementation into a meteorological model developed in Japan~ Validation through the comparison with the ground base measurement2021

    • Author(s)
      Yousuke Sato, Syugo Hayashi, Akihiro Hashiimoto
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Numerical study of the lightning frequency in tropical cyclone (TC) using a metrological model coupled with a lightning component2021

    • Author(s)
      Yousuke Sato, Yoshiaki Miyamoto, and Hirofumi Tomita
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Clouds and Precipitations 2020
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 平成29年九州北部豪雨と平成30年7月豪雨の雷特性に関する数値的考察2021

    • Author(s)
      佐藤陽祐、林修吾、橋本明弘
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年春季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気象雷モデルでの数値予報に向けたモデル改良の取り組み2021

    • Author(s)
      佐藤陽祐、林修吾、橋本明弘、岩下武史
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 2018 年冬季降雪シミュレーションから得られた降雪粒子特性の時空間分布2021

    • Author(s)
      橋本明弘,石坂雅昭,山下克也,本吉弘岐,中井専人,山口悟,林修吾
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 二重偏波レーダーによる粒子判別結果と雷放電頻度の関係2021

    • Author(s)
      林修吾、梅原章仁、南雲信宏
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年春季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 領域気象雷モデルの開発・検証と今後の開発について2021

    • Author(s)
      佐藤陽祐、富岡拓海、林修吾、橋本明弘
    • Organizer
      非静力学モデルに関するワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気象モデルを用いた北海道での冬季降雪イベントに対する雲微物理スキームの評価2021

    • Author(s)
      近藤誠、佐藤陽祐、勝山祐太、稲津將
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年春季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 北海道の複数の降雪事例を対象とした 雲微物理スキームの評価2021

    • Author(s)
      近藤誠、佐藤陽祐、勝山祐太、稲津將
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 雷観測の観測システムシミュレーション実験: 2017年九州北部豪雨事例2021

    • Author(s)
      本田匠、佐藤陽祐、三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Predictability of the July 2018 Heavy Rain Event in Japan Associated with Typhoon Prapiroon and Southern Convective Disturbances2021

    • Author(s)
      Takumi Honda、Tatemasa Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      Japan Geoscience Union Annual Meeting 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 正20面体格子へのポアッソンソルバーの実装2021

    • Author(s)
      三浦裕亮
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 雷を直接扱った数値モデルの現実事例への拡張2020

    • Author(s)
      佐藤陽祐、林修吾、橋本明弘
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2020年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Numerical study of the lightning frequency in tropical cyclone using a metrological model coupled with a lightning component2020

    • Author(s)
      Yousuke Sato, Yoshiaki Miyamoto, and Hirofumi Tomita
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joing meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 雷観測のデータ同化へ向けた基礎的な調査2020

    • Author(s)
      本田匠、佐藤陽祐、三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2020年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Exploring the potential of assimilating lightning flash observations with an ensemble Kalman filter2020

    • Author(s)
      Takumi Honda, Yousuke Sato, Tatemasa Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joing meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 静止衛星による雷観測データ同化の観測システム シミュレーション実験2020

    • Author(s)
      本田匠、佐藤陽祐、三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2020年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 豪雨なのに,雷が頻繁に鳴ったり鳴らなかったりするのはなぜ?

    • URL

      https://www.hokudai.ac.jp/news/2021/09/post-898.html

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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