| Project/Area Number |
20K01642
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | Trade war / machinery exports / Exchange rates / Export prices / trade war / exchange rates / export prices / system GMM / impact of exchange rate / export price / export quantity / impact of tariff / structural break / misalignments / exports to the US / imperfect substitutes |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
The research quantifies the impacts of tariff of the US on the exports of China and Japan. In addition, it constructs a structural model which can be used for similar analyses. If the model developed in the project could be employed to trace the impacts of various variables affecting exports.
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
1. Did Chinese variables affect the machinery exports from Korea to the US? This research analyzes machinery commodities which are exported from China and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4 to determine the impacts of Chinese variables such as trade war and exchange rates on the export quantity and price of Korea. The TSLS estimation results show that a 1% depreciation of the renminbi decreases the value of Korean exports by 0.28%. In contrast, trade war affected Korean exports positively while it affected Chinese exports negatively.
2. Was there a structural break in the impacts of exchange rates on the prices of Japanese machinery exports to the US? The results of the research shows that the impact of the yen-dollar exchange rates on Japanese export prices is much smaller and statistically insignificant after the Great Recession.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
The research shows that the trade war between China and the US had positive impacts on the exports of China's competitors such as Korea. It also shows that Japanese exporters do not decrease export prices despite cheaper Japanese currency, putting more weight on earnings.
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