Impacts of tariffs of the US against China on the machinery exports of China and Japan to the US
| Project/Area Number |
20K01642
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2022)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | impact of exchange rate / export price / export quantity / machinery exports / impact of tariff / system GMM / structural break / misalignments / exports to the US / imperfect substitutes |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
The research quantifies the impacts of tariff of the US on the exports of China and Japan. In addition, it constructs a structural model which can be used for similar analyses. If the model developed in the project could be employed to trace the impacts of various variables affecting exports.
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
I analyzed the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4 to determine the impacts of economic variables on one country on the export quantity and and the export price of the other country. The demand for and the supply of exports of each country were estimated simultaneously. The estimation results show that the impacts of Chinese variables on Korean exports are bigger than the impacts of Korean variables on Chinese exports. When the Chinese export price decreases by 1% the demand for Korean exports decreases by 0.380%. In contrast, when the Korean export price decreases by 1% the demand for Chinese exports decreases by 0.185%. When the Chinese renminbi depreciates by 1%, the Korean export price decreases by 0.652%. When the Korean won depreciates by 1%, the Chinese export prices decrease by 0.824%.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
Because my research is about Asian machinery exports to the US, to solicit opinions and comments from exporting companies in Japan, Korea and China is an important part in the research. However, due to turbulence caused by the Covid 19, I could not contact them and therefore could not gather their comments and opinion on the preliminary empirical results. However, since the covid-19 situation was over, I am currently contacting exporting companies actively. and therefore, expect the research will soon progress as planned.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
I presented preliminary empirical findings of my research at the annual conference of the Korea Trade Research Association in Dec. 2022. After analyzing the effects of tariffs too, I will present the updated version to international conferences.
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Report
(3 results)
Research Products
(2 results)
