• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

China's demographic change and its impact on the bilateral US current account balance with China: Theory and Empirics

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K01760
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
Research InstitutionNanzan University

Principal Investigator

Inagaki Kazuyuki  南山大学, 経済学部, 教授 (70508233)

Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords経常収支 / 国際資本移動 / 平均寿命 / 出生率 / 米中経常収支 / 高齢者の労働参加
Outline of Research at the Start

米中二国間経常収支の決定要因として、中国の平均寿命(長寿化)と出生率(少子化)に注目する。それ以外の人口変数については、高齢者労働参加率、家計の育児費用や育児時間、政府の出生・育児補助がOECDによってデータ化されており、少子高齢化に関連する人口政策の効果も実証分析する。中国の長寿化と少子化の双方が、当初はアメリカ赤字を拡大するが、近年この効果が反転し、アメリカ赤字を縮小させ始めたことを示す。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research examined the impacts of Chinese demographic changes on the US current account balance with China. The empirical analysis demonstrated that both fertility and longevity in China had significant impacts on the US current account balance with China. The long-run demographic trends in China, especially an increase in longevity, are expected to reduce the US deficit with China. Furthermore, the theoretical and empirical analyses indicated that higher longevity amplified the impact of elderly labor supply on current account balances through the improvement in the health status of the elderly. Two papers were published from peer-reviewed journals, and one paper is currently submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

近年、米中貿易摩擦は世界的な景気後退要因であると認知されている。米中貿易摩擦の今後の動向を推測するためには、アメリカの対中国経常収支の決定要因を理解する必要がある。この決定要因は未解明であったが、アメリカの二国間経常収支は2003年のデータから利用可能となり、実証分析に耐えられるサンプルが整備されたため、本研究が初めて分析を試みた。
分析の焦点は中国における少子化と長寿化であるが、特に長寿化については、国連によって今後60年にわたる平均寿命の予測値が公表されている。そのため、長寿化のインパクトは長期的に予測しやすく、本研究の成果は今後の米中貿易摩擦を理解する上で有益である。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (6 results)

All 2022 2021 2020

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (3 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] How are the international capital flows of rapidly aging countries affected by the elderly working longer?2021

    • Author(s)
      Kazuyuki Inagaki
    • Journal Title

      Economic Modelling

      Volume: 97 Pages: 285-297

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.econmod.2020.11.003

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] China’s Demographic Impact on the Bilateral US Current Account Balance2020

    • Author(s)
      Kazuyuki Inagaki
    • Journal Title

      Empirical Economics Letters

      Volume: 19 Pages: 1155-1162

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] The rise of robot capital and its impact on international capital flows2022

    • Author(s)
      稲垣一之
    • Organizer
      名古屋市立大学経済学研究科火曜研究会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] How are the International Capital Flows of Rapidly Aging Countries Affected by the Elderly Working Longer?2021

    • Author(s)
      稲垣一之
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会中部部会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] How are rapidly aging countries being affected as elderly people work longer? A case of international capital flows2020

    • Author(s)
      稲垣一之
    • Organizer
      南山学会(経済系列)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Global Financial Flows in the Pre- and Post-global Crisis Periods (chap.4 "Global Financial Crisis and Demand for the US Dollar as an International Currency")2022

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Hoshikawa, Kazuyuki Inagaki
    • Total Pages
      224
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9789811936128
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2024-01-30  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi