夏季の成層圏-対流圏結合系における力学-放射-化学過程の解明と気候影響評価

• Project/Area Number: 20K04070
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
• Research Institution: Japan, Meteorological Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: 出牛 真 気象庁気象研究所, 全球大気海洋研究部, 主任研究官 (00354499)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 吉田 康平 気象庁気象研究所, 全球大気海洋研究部, 主任研究官 (10636038)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2025-03-31
• Project Status: Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000); Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
• Keywords: 大気化学-気候相互作用 / 成層圏対流圏結合 / 季節予測 / 気候変動 / 成層圏オゾン / 気候モデリング / 化学-気候相互作用 / 力学-放射-化学相互作用 / 成層圏オゾン・エアロゾル

Outline of Research at the Start

オゾンホールによる南半球環状モードの極性変化など、放射・化学過程が成層圏－対流圏力学結合に及ぼす影響は、気象・気候予測精度向上の重要な鍵として最近注目されている。本研究は、世界最新鋭の気象・気候予測モデルを改良し化学場とその放射加熱・冷却の再現精度を高めた上で数値実験を実施し、中高緯度の成層圏－対流圏結合系における力学ー放射ー化学相互作用を特に夏季に焦点を当てて明らかにする。加えて、成層圏－対流圏力学結合系の変調を通したオゾンやエアロゾルの長期変化による気候影響を評価する。

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

大気放射・化学過程が成層圏-対流圏力学結合に及ぼす影響の解明は気象・気候予測精度向上にとって重要な課題であり、その気候影響も明らかにする必要がある。本研究課題では、成層圏-対流圏結合系における力学-放射-化学相互作用とそれによる数ヶ月以上の時間スケールにおける地上気候への影響を、特に夏季に焦点を当てて明らかにする。本研究課題の4年目（延長１年目）にあたる本年度では以下のことを実施した。
簡易オゾン化学スキームの開発・検証・影響評価：現実的な計算機資源で大規模アンサンブルシミュレーション（e.g. アンサンブル季節予測）の実施を可能とするため、地球システムモデルの詳細フル化学過程から得られる情報をもとにオゾン化学過程を簡易化したオゾン化学反応スキームを開発した。また、この簡易スキームの精度評価を、詳細フル化学モデルや観測と比較することで行うと共に、成層圏-対流圏力学結合に及ぼす影響について大規模アンサンブルシミュレーションを実施して定量的評価を行い、現在論文として取りまとめているところである。また簡易スキームの季節予測モデルへの適用を行い、試験的な実験を実施している。また、大規模アンサンブルシミュレーションを実施して成層圏-対流圏力学結合過程について解析した研究成果の発表（国際学会1件・国内学会3件）を行った。
本課題の関連研究成果として、地球システムモデルの化学過程について性能・精度評価等を行った共著論文を計4本公開すると共に、国内学会1件の発表を行った。
本研究課題の遂行により、気候変動予測の不確実性低減への貢献とともに、精度の低い夏季の季節予測技術の向上にブレークスルーをもたらすことが期待される。

Current Status of Research Progress

3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.

Reason

本年度は、新たに開発した簡易オゾン化学スキームと詳細フル化学モデルを用いた大規模アンサンブルシミュレーションをそれぞれ実施し、オゾン化学過程が成層圏-対流圏結合へ及ぼす影響の定量的評価を行った。これらの開発・研究成果について現在、論文として取りまとめているところであるが、想定よりも多くの時間を要したため、研究計画を更に1年間延長し、来年度取りまとめ論文を発表する。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

本年度実施した簡易オゾン化学スキーム及び詳細フル化学モデルを用いた大規模アンサンブルシミュレーション実験結果をもとに、成層圏オゾン化学過程が成層圏-対流圏結合系へ及ぼす影響に関する研究成果を取りまとめて、論文として公表する。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Factors Contributing to Historical and Future Trends in Arctic Precipitation (2024)
  • Author(s): Yukimoto S.、Oshima N.、Kawai H.、Deushi M.、Aizawa T.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 51 Issue: 7
  • DOI: 10.1029/2023gl107467
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Evaluating modelled tropospheric columns of CH₄, CO, and O₃ in the Arctic using ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements (2024)
  • Author(s): Flood Victoria A.、Strong Kimberly、Whaley Cynthia H.、Walker Kaley A.、Blumenstock Thomas、Hannigan James W.、Mellqvist Johan、Notholt Justus、Palm Mathias、R?hling Amelie N.、Arnold Stephen、Beagley Stephen、Chien Rong-You、Christensen Jesper、Deushi Makoto et al.
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 24 Issue: 2 Pages: 1079-1118
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The JRA-3Q Reanalysis (2024)
  • Author(s): KOSAKA Yuki、KOBAYASHI Shinya、HARADA Yayoi、KOBAYASHI Chiaki、NAOE Hiroaki、YOSHIMOTO Koichi、HARADA Masashi、GOTO Naochika、CHIBA Jotaro、MIYAOKA Kengo、SEKIGUCHI Ryohei、DEUSHI Makoto、KAMAHORI Hirotaka、NAKAEGAWA Tosiyuki、TANAKA Taichu Y.、TOKUHIRO Takayuki、SATO Yoshiaki、MATSUSHITA Yasuhiro、ONOGI Kazutoshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II Volume: 102 Issue: 1 Pages: 49-109
  • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2024-004
  • ISSN: 0026-1165, 2186-9057
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Arctic Tropospheric Ozone Trends (2023)
  • Author(s): Law Kathy S.、Hjorth Jens L.、Pernov Jakob B.、Whaley Cynthia H.、Skov Henrik、Collaud Coen Martine、Langner Joakim、Arnold Stephen R.、Tarasick David、Christensen Jesper、Deushi Makoto et al.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 50 Issue: 22
  • DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103096
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Arctic tropospheric ozone: assessment of current knowledge and model performance (2023)
  • Author(s): Whaley, C. H., Law, K. S., Hjorth, J. L., Skov, H., Arnold, S. R., Langner, J., Pernov, J. B., Bergeron, G., Bourgeois, I., Christensen, J. H., Chien, R.-Y., Deushi, M., Dong, X., Effertz, P., Faluvegi, G., Flanner, M., Fu, J. S., Gauss, M., Huey, G., Im, U., Kivi, R., Marelle, L., Onishi, T., Oshima, N. et al.
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 23 Issue: 1 Pages: 637-661
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-23-637-2023
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Climate Impacts: Impacts of Ozone on Southern Hemisphere Climate (2022)
  • Author(s): Deushi Makoto
  • Journal Title: Handbook of Air Quality and Climate Change. Springer, Singapore. Volume: - Pages: 1-25
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-981-15-2527-8_33-1
  • ISBN: 9789811525278
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric climates in chemistry versus no-chemistry climate models (2022)
  • Author(s): Morgenstern, O., Kinnison, D., Mills, M., Michou, M., Horowitz, L., Lin, P., Deushi, M., Yoshida, K., O’Connor, F., Tang, Y., Abraham, L., Keeble, J., Dennison, F., Rozanov, E., Egorova, T., Sukhodolov, T., & Zeng, G.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Volume: 127 Issue: 20
  • DOI: 10.1029/2022jd037123
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Role of Interhemispheric Heat Transport and Global Atmospheric Cooling in Multidecadal Trends of Northern Hemisphere Precipitation (2022)
  • Author(s): Yukimoto Seiji、Oshima Naga、Kawai Hideaki、Deushi Makoto、Aizawa Takuro
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 49 Issue: 18
  • DOI: 10.1029/2022gl100335
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Attribution of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Changes Between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 Models (2022)
  • Author(s): G. Zeng, O. Morgenstern, J. H. T. Williams, F. M. O’Connor, P. T. Griffiths, J. Keeble, M. Deushi, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, L. K. Emmons, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, S. E. Bauer, B. Hassler, M. Michou, M. J. Mills, L. T. Murray, N. Oshima, L. T. Sentman, S. Tilmes, K. Tsigaridis, P. J. Young
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Volume: 127 Issue: 16
  • DOI: 10.1029/2022jd036452
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Air quality improvements are projected to weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through radiative forcing effects (2022)
  • Author(s): Hassan Taufiq、Allen Robert J.、Liu Wei、Shim Sungbo、van Noije Twan、Le Sager Philippe、Oshima Naga、Deushi Makoto、Randles Cynthia A.、O’Connor Fiona M.
  • Journal Title: Communications Earth & Environment Volume: 3 Issue: 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00476-9
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Importance of minor-looking treatments in global climate models (2022)
  • Author(s): Kawai, H., Yoshida, K., Koshiro, T., & Yukimoto, S.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Volume: 14 Issue: 10
  • DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003128
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models (2022)
  • Author(s): Zanis Prodromos、Akritidis Dimitris、Turnock Steven、Naik Vaishali、Szopa Sophie、Georgoulias Aristeidis K、Bauer Susanne E、Deushi Makoto、Horowitz Larry W、Keeble James、Le Sager Philippe、O’Connor Fiona M、Oshima Naga、Tsigaridis Konstantinos、van Noije Twan
  • Journal Title: Environmental Research Letters Volume: 17 Issue: 2 Pages: 024014-024014
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions drive shifts in the ozone seasonal cycle throughout the northern midlatitude troposphere (2022)
  • Author(s): Bowman, H., Turnock, S., Bauer, S. E., Tsigaridis, K., Deushi, M., Oshima, N., O'Connor, F. M., Horowitz, L., Wu, T., Zhang, J., Kubistin, D., and Parrish, D. D.
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 22 Issue: 5 Pages: 3507-3524
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-3507-2022
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP (2021)
  • Author(s): Jones Chris D.、Hickman Jonathan E.、Rumbold Steven T.、Walton Jeremy、Lamboll Robin D.、Skeie Ragnhild B.、Fiedler Stephanie、Forster Piers M.、Rogelj Joeri、Abe Manabu、Botzet Michael、Calvin Katherine、Cassou Christophe、Cole Jason N.S.、Davini Paolo、Deushi Makoto、（略）、Oshima Naga、et al.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 48 Issue: 8
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091883
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Investigations on the anthropogenic reversal of the natural ozone gradient between northern and southern midlatitudes (2021)
  • Author(s): Parrish David D.、Derwent Richard G.、Turnock Steven T.、O'Connor Fiona M.、Staehelin Johannes、Bauer Susanne E.、Deushi Makoto、Oshima Naga、Tsigaridis Kostas、Wu Tongwen、Zhang Jie
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 21 Issue: 12 Pages: 9669-9679
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-9669-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Do sudden stratospheric warmings boost convective activity in the tropics? (2021)
  • Author(s): Yoshida, K., and Mizuta, R.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 48 Issue: 16
  • DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093688
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Influence of the El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry?ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models (2021)
  • Author(s): Garfinkel, C. I., Harari, O., Ziskin Ziv, S., Rao, J., Morgenstern, O., Zeng, G., Tilmes, S., Kinnison, D., O'Connor, F. M., Butchart, N., Deushi, M., J?ckel, P., Pozzer, A., and Davis, S.
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 21 Issue: 5 Pages: 3725-3740
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 (2021)
  • Author(s): Keeble, J., Hassler, B., Banerjee, A., Deushi, M. et al.
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 21 Issue: 6 Pages: 5015-5061
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations (2021)
  • Author(s): Griffiths, P. T., Murray, L. T., Zeng, G., Shin, Y. M., Abraham, N. L., Archibald, A. T., Deushi, M., Emmons, L. K., Galbally, I. E., Hassler, B., Horowitz, L. W., Keeble, J., Liu, J., Moeini, O., Naik, V., O'Connor, F. M., Oshima, N., Tarasick, D., Tilmes, S., Turnock, S. T., Wild, O., Young, P. J., and Zanis, P
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 21 Issue: 5 Pages: 4187-4218
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions (2021)
  • Author(s): Allen Robert J.、Horowitz Larry W、Naik Vaishali、Oshima Naga、O'Connor Fiona M.、Turnock Steven、Shim Sungbo、Le Sager Philippe、van Noije Twan、Tsigaridis Kostas、Bauer Susanne E、Sentman Lori T.、John Jasmin G、Broderick Conor、Deushi Makoto、Folberth Gerd A.、Fujimori Shinichiro、Collins William J
  • Journal Title: Environmental Research Letters Volume: 16 Pages: 034010-034025
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe06b
  • NAID: 120006975990
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols - a multi-model comparison (2021)
  • Author(s): Thornhill, G. D., Collins, W. J., Kramer, R. J., Olivi?, D., Skeie, R. B., O'Connor, F. M., Abraham, N. L., Checa-Garcia, R., Bauer, S. E., Deushi, M., Emmons, L. K., Forster, P. M., Horowitz, L. W., Johnson, B., Keeble, J., Lamarque, J.-F., Michou, M., Mills, M. J., Mulcahy, J. P., Myhre, G., (略）, Oshima, N., et al.
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 21 Issue: 2 Pages: 853-874
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-853-2021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances (2020)
  • Author(s): Morgenstern, O., O'Connor, F. M., Johnson, B. T., Zeng, G., Mulcahy, J. P., Williams, J., Deushi, M. et al.
  • Journal Title: Geophys. Res. Lett. Volume: 47 Issue: 20
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088295
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations (2020)
  • Author(s): Skeie, R.B., Myhre, G., Hodnebrog, O., Deushi, M. et al.
  • Journal Title: npj Clim. and Atmos. Sci. Volume: 3 Issue: 1 Pages: 32-32
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-00131-0
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models (2020)
  • Author(s): Turnock, S. T., Allen, R. J., Andrews, M., Bauer, S. E., Deushi, M., Emmons, L., Good, P., Horowitz, L., John, J. G., Michou, M., Nabat, P., Naik, V., Neubauer, D., O'Connor, F. M., Olivi?, D., Oshima, N., Schulz, M., Sellar, A., Shim, S., Takemura, T., Tilmes, S., Tsigaridis, K., Wu, T., and Zhang, J.
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 20 Issue: 23 Pages: 14547-14579
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers (2020)
  • Author(s): Allen, R. J., Turnock, S., Nabat, P., Neubauer, D., Lohmann, U., Olivi?, D., Oshima, N., Michou, M., Wu, T., Zhang, J., Takemura, T., Schulz, M., Tsigaridis, K., Bauer, S. E., Emmons, L., Horowitz, L., Naik, V., van Noije, T., Bergman, T., Lamarque, J.-F., Zanis, P., Tegen, I., Westervelt, D. M., Le Sager, P., et al.
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 20 Issue: 16 Pages: 9641-9663
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Global and Arctic effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic gases and aerosols in MRI-ESM2.0 (2020)
  • Author(s): Oshima, N., Yukimoto, S., Deushi, M., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Tanaka, T. Y., and Yoshida, K.
  • Journal Title: Prog. Earth. Planet. Sci. Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 38-38
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40645-020-00348-w
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Fast responses on pre-industrial climate from present-day aerosols in a CMIP6 multi-model study (2020)
  • Author(s): Zanis, P., Akritidis, D., Georgoulias, A. K., Allen, R. J., Bauer, S. E., Boucher, O., Cole, J., Johnson, B., Deushi, M., Michou, M., Mulcahy, J., Nabat, P., Olivi?, D., Oshima, N., Sima, A., Schulz, M., Takemura, T., and Tsigaridis, K.
  • Journal Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys. Volume: 20 Issue: 14 Pages: 8381-8404
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 全球から地域スケールの気候変動の再現と予測のための新MRI-ESMの開発 (2023)
  • Author(s): 出牛真, 吉村裕正, 行本誠史, 浦川昇吾, 川合秀明, 吉田康平, 長澤亮二, 大島長, 神代剛, 庭野匡思, 新藤永樹, 平原翔二, 足立恭将, 渡辺泰士, 保坂征宏, 石井正好
  • Organizer: 気象学会
• [Presentation] Large ensembles unveil quantitative impact of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling (2023)
  • Author(s): Yoshida, K., Y. Imada, R. Mizuta, and Y. Ushijima
  • Organizer: A Joint SPARC DynVar・SNAP Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 大規模気候シミュレーションによる成層圏対流圏結合過程のENSOとQBOとの関係 (2023)
  • Author(s): 吉田康平, 今田由紀子, 水田亮, 牛島悠介
  • Organizer: 異常気象研究集会「異常気象と長期変動」
• [Presentation] 大規模アンサンブルデータによる北半球冬季成層圏対流圏結合 (2023)
  • Author(s): 吉田康平
  • Organizer: JpGU meeting 2023
• [Presentation] 大規模アンサンブル実験から見える北半球冬季成層圏対流圏結合 (2023)
  • Author(s): 吉田康平
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2023年度春季大会
• [Presentation] Impacts of Short-lived Climate Forcers on the Arctic Climate by MRI-ESM2.0 and Multi-model Analyses (2023)
  • Author(s): Oshima, N., M. Deushi, T. Aizawa, and S. Yukimoto
  • Organizer: Seventh International Symposium on Arctic Research
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] The polar stratosphere-troposphere coupling variation with El Nino Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in large-ensemble simulations (2022)
  • Author(s): Yoshida, K.
  • Organizer: 7th SPARC General Assembly
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 成層圏オゾンが季節内から季節スケールで対流圏循環に及ぼす影響について (2022)
  • Author(s): 出牛真
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会長期予報研究連絡会
• [Presentation] Do sudden stratospheric warmings boost convective activity in the tropics? 102nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (2022)
  • Author(s): Yoshida, K., and R. Mizuta
  • Organizer: American Meteorological Society
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 成層圏突然昇温は熱帯対流活動を励起するか？～大規模アンサンブルシミュレーションからの視座～ (2021)
  • Author(s): 吉田康平, 水田亮
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合
  • Int'l Joint Research