Global forest transitions: finding evidence for the forest transition theory and examining implications for SDG 15
| Project/Area Number |
20K13262
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 04010:Geography-related
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| Research Institution | Forest Research and Management Organization (2021)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (2020) |
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Principal Investigator |
ESTOQUE Ronald Canero 国立研究開発法人森林研究・整備機構, 森林総合研究所, 主任研究員 等 (60760139)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2020-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
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| Keywords | forest transition / forest cover change / land change / sustainability / SDGs / forest loss displacement / GIScience/Remote Sensing / Earth observation / SDG |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
This research will focus on three key scientific questions. First, based on a state-of-the-art technology (remote sensing), what do the trajectories of global forest transitions over the past three decades signify; do they provide evidence for or against the forest transition theory? Second, what do the answers to Question 1 indicate; are we progressing towards the attainment of SDG 15, for example, in relation to Target 15.1? Third, where are the hot spots of forest cover loss and forest cover gain; are they stationary or changing spatially over time?
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The results revealed that over the past 60 years (1960-2019), the global forest area has declined by 81.7 million ha, with forest loss (437.3 million ha) outweighing forest gain (355.6 million ha). With this forest decline and the population increase (4.68 billion) over the period, the global forest per capita has decreased by over 60%, from 1.4 ha in 1960 to 0.5 ha in 2019. The spatiotemporal pattern of forest change supports the forest transition theory, with forest losses occurring primarily in the lower income countries in the tropics and forest gains in the higher income countries in the extratropics. Furthermore, economic growth has a stronger association with net forest gain than with net forest loss. To help achieve the sustainable development agenda (e.g., SDG 15), there is a profound need to reverse, or at least flatten, the global net forest loss curve by conserving the world’s remaining forests and restoring and rehabilitating degraded forest landscapes.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
This research contributes to the study of the forest transition theory. The results highlight the need to address forest losses in the lower income countries especially in the tropics and for the higher income countries to reduce their dependence on imported tropical forest products.
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Report
(3 results)
Research Products
(7 results)
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[Journal Article] Remotely sensed tree canopy cover-based indicators for monitoring global sustainability and environmental initiatives2021
Author(s)
Ronald C. Estoque, Brian A. Johnson, Yan Gao, Rajarshi DasGupta, Makoto Ooba, Takuya Togawa, Yasuaki Hijioka, Yuji Murayama, Lilito D. Gavina, Rodel D. Lasco, Shogo Nakamura
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Journal Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume: 16
Issue: 4
Pages: 1-16
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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[Presentation] Remotely sensed tree canopy cover-based indicators for monitoring progress towards global sustainability and environmental initiatives2021
Author(s)
Estoque RC, Ooba M, Johnson BA, Gao Y, DasGupta R, Togawa T, Hijioka Y, Murayama Y, Gavina LD, Lasco RD, Nakamura S
Organizer
Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) Meeting
Related Report
Int'l Joint Research / Invited
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