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Urban shoreline amplification of storm surge during extreme tropical cyclones: Current and future flood risks

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K15003
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
Research InstitutionTokyo Institute of Technology (2022-2023)
Kyoto University (2020-2021)

Principal Investigator

ウェッブ エイドリアン  東京工業大学, 理学院, 特任准教授 (00752172)

Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2025-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Keywordsstorm surge / coastal flooding / tropical cyclones / meshless model / climate dataset
Outline of Research at the Start

高潮や高波の対策は、人命や資産を保護する上で重要である。特に、我が国では都市や資産が沿岸域に集中しており、これらのリスクを正確に把握し、リスクの大きさに応じた防護施設を構築することが期待されている。しかし、複雑な形状を持つ都市の沿岸港湾域では、高潮が局所的に増幅されるが、発生メカニズムや発生場所については明らかでない。本研究では、現在気候と将来気候の高潮リスクを詳細に推定するとともに高潮を増幅する沿岸域特性・地形特性を解明することを目的とする。超高解像度の高潮モデルを開発し、国内・国外の沿岸都市を対象に気候変動の影響を考慮した大規模なシミュレーションを行い、リスクを推定する。

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

Please refer to the grant proposal for background details of the project. A high-resolution storm surge model is being developed and coupled with a large-ensemble climate dataset in order to quantify changes in urban flood risk. This research is being conducted in two main phases: modeling and simulation.

Work on Phase 1 (model development) continued in FY2023 in order to investigate the role bathymetry plays in urban storm surge amplification. With the aid of two international experts, work continued on a numerical storm surge prototype of Osaka Bay (using a spatially-flexible finite difference scheme). Parallel work on Phase 2 (ensemble simulation) was paused in FY2022 while improvements are being made to a tropical cyclone dataset (generated in FY2021) used for simulations.

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

4: Progress in research has been delayed.

Reason

The research project was scheduled to have concluded in FY2023. However, the principle researcher took maternity leave during FY2023 and research for the project was postponed for six months (2023/8/11-2024/2/13). For this reason, the project was extended one final year and a planned visit by two international collaborators (during the second half of FY2023) was postponed until FY2024.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

The new tropical cyclone track dataset (updated in FY2023) will be used to simulate thousands of flood events under present and future climate conditions to test hypotheses and and generalize results.

Arrangements have been made for two international collaborators (Colorado, USA) to visit the principle investigator during April and May of FY2024. The visit will be used improve the numerical model and prepare a manuscript for publication.

Research progress will also continue to be presented at domestic conferences. In early FY2024, a workshop will be held at Kyoto University to support adoption of meshless numerical methods. In early FY2025, a conference session is being organized to facilitate discussion and collaboration around storm surge and coastal-related hazards in Japan.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2023 Research-status Report
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (24 results)

All 2022 2021 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (10 results) Journal Article (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results,  Invited: 4 results) Remarks (3 results) Funded Workshop (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Colorado Boulder/Department of Applied Mathematics(米国)

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] San Diego State University/Department of Mathematics and Statistics(米国)

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Argonne National Laboratory/Environmental Science Division(米国)

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Colorado Boulder/Department of Applied Mathematics(米国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] San Diego State University/Department of Mathematics and Statistics(米国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Argonne National Laboratory/Environmental Science Division(米国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Colorado Boulder/Department of Applied Mathematics(米国)

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] San Diego State University/Department of Mathematics and Statistics(米国)

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Colorado Boulder/Department of Applied Mathematics(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] San Diego State University/Department of Mathematics and Statistics(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia2022

    • Author(s)
      Sotaro Mori, Tomoya Shimura, Takuya Miyashita, Adrean Webb, Nobuhito Mori
    • Journal Title

      Coastal Engineering Journal

      Volume: 64:4 Issue: 4 Pages: 630-647

    • DOI

      10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Uncertainty in future projections of extreme ocean waves2022

    • Author(s)
      Adrean Webb
    • Organizer
      Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Detection and Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Within the D4PDF Mega- Ensemble Projection2022

    • Author(s)
      Adrean Webb
    • Organizer
      Argonne National Laboratory
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Detection and Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Within the D4PDF Mega-Ensemble Projection2021

    • Author(s)
      Adrean Webb, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Adaptation Research for Climate Change in Asia
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Detection and Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Within the D4PDF Mega-Ensemble Projection2021

    • Author(s)
      Adrean Webb, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori
    • Organizer
      Japan Society of Civil Engineers Meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Detection and Analysis of Tropical Cyclones and Associated Coastal Extreme Waves Within the D4PDF Mega-Ensemble Projection2021

    • Author(s)
      Adrean Webb, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society Meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Nearshore wave-current interaction effects on wave power density near Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Adrean Webb, Takuji Waseda
    • Organizer
      Japan Geoscience Union Meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Tropical Cyclones Within the D4PDF Mega-Ensemble Climate Dataset2021

    • Author(s)
      Adrean Webb, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori
    • Organizer
      Global Tropical Cyclones & Ocean Waves Meeting
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Progress on Detection and Analysis of Cyclones and Associated Coastal Waves Using Mega-Ensemble and Seamless MRI-AGCM Projections2021

    • Author(s)
      Adrean Webb, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori
    • Organizer
      Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project Workshop
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] Adrean Webb

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] Adrean Webb

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] Adrean Webb

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Waves, Storm Surges, and Related Hazards; Japan Geoscience Union Meeting2022

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] SIAM Conference on Mathematical & Computational Issues in the Geosciences2021

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report

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Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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