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Mechanism design of collective wisdom on inductive learning: Theory, experiments and simulations

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K20766
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Medium-sized Section 7:Economics, business administration, and related fields
Research InstitutionWaseda University

Principal Investigator

ISHIKAWA Ryuichiro  早稲田大学, 国際学術院, 教授 (80345454)

Project Period (FY) 2020-07-30 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Keywords帰納的学習 / コミュニケーション / 価格メカニズム / 高次予測 / 経験財 / 情報共有 / 帰納的推論 / 集合知 / スコアリングルール / 交渉力 / 経験 / サービス / ムカデゲーム / 交渉 / 戦略的不確実性 / 選好形成 / 推薦システム / 資産価格取引実験 / 量的緩和政策 / ベイジアン自白剤 / NPS / 推奨意向 / メカニズムデザイン
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究では、経済主体が保有する私的情報や知識を集約し体系化するメカニズムを「集合知メカニズム」と呼び、そのメカニズムを適切に機能させるための理論分析を行う。さらに被験者実験と計算機シミュレーションを用いてメカニズムの検証を重ね、実用化のための問題点を抽出する。理論分析においては、「帰納的学習理論」を用い、経済主体の「限定合理性」に起因する認識の変化や誤謬の形成を考慮し、集合知メカニズムが収集する情報の健全性を検証する。その上で、メカニズムがどのような情報を社会に提示するべきかという問題を「情報設計問題」として定式化し分析する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aims to elucidate the relationship between inductive learning of boundedly rational agents and collective intelligence mechanisms by analyzing the learning processes through communication and information provision systems. The research involved communication analysis using a strategic argumentation model and examining the impact of information provision and environmental changes on market participants' behavior through asset market trading experiments. The results showed that the provision of short-term belief information promotes asset price fluctuations, while the provision of long-term belief information helps stabilize prices. Additionally, the effects of information sharing mechanisms were compared and examined through the design of information sharing systems and speech right trading systems.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、限定合理的主体の帰納的学習と集合知メカニズムの関係を明らかにすることを目的として、コミュニケーションと情報提供システムを分析した点で学術的意義が高い。特に、帰納的ゲーム理論の発展により、限定合理的主体の学習と認識形成過程を詳細に解明し、戦略的議論モデルを用いたコミュニケーション分析によって、意思決定プロセスへの影響を検証した。社会的意義としては、情報提供の方法が市場の安定性や価格形成に及ぼす影響を実証したことで、効果的な情報共有システムや発言権取引の設計に寄与し、実際の経済システムや政策設計に応用可能な知見を提供する。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (23 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (3 results) Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Invited: 2 results) Book (1 results) Funded Workshop (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Ben-Gurion University of the Negev(イスラエル)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Banque de France(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Arizona(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Price competition with different bargaining abilities2024

    • Author(s)
      Teng, J and R. Ishikawa
    • Journal Title

      Procedia CIRP

      Volume: 印刷中

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 会計学と微分積分(3)2021

    • Author(s)
      椎葉淳・石川竜一郎
    • Journal Title

      企業会計

      Volume: 73 Pages: 62-63

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 会計学と情報理論(2)2021

    • Author(s)
      椎葉淳・石川竜一郎
    • Journal Title

      企業会計

      Volume: 73 Pages: 78-79

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] A quantitative easing experiment2020

    • Author(s)
      Penalver, A., Hanaki, N., Akiyama, E., Funaki, Y. and Ishikawa, R.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

      Volume: 119 Pages: 103978-103978

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103978

    • NAID

      40022501469

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 経験評価としての集合知メカニズムのデザイン2024

    • Author(s)
      石川竜一郎
    • Organizer
      日本経営工学会研究セミナー
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] トークン価格暴落時における分散型自律組織の参加者の退出行動2024

    • Author(s)
      石川竜一郎、宮島 崚、郡山幸雄、西野成昭
    • Organizer
      サービス学会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Experimental analysis of IPO pricing mechanism: The case of Book-building2023

    • Author(s)
      石川竜一郎、オウセイニョ、船木由喜彦、小倉義明
    • Organizer
      13th Conference of the French Experimental Economics Association (ASFEE 2023)
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Price competition with different bargaining abilities2023

    • Author(s)
      Teng, J and R. Ishikawa
    • Organizer
      17th CIRP Conference on Intelligent Computation in Manufacturing Engineering
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A Resolution of the Centipede Paradox2023

    • Author(s)
      M. Kaneko and R. Ishikawa
    • Organizer
      The 22nd annual SAET Conference
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] サービスと集合知のメカニズムデザイン2023

    • Author(s)
      石川竜一郎
    • Organizer
      横幹連合
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Centipede Games, Cognitive Bounds, and Hypothesis-Inertia: Epistemic Logic with Shallow Depths2022

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichiro Ishikawa
    • Organizer
      21st Annual SAET Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 私たちは何をAIに求めるのか?2022

    • Author(s)
      石川竜一郎
    • Organizer
      2022年度第二回キーノートディベート
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Bubbles in Asset Markets and the Heterogeneity of Beliefs2022

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichiro Ishikawa
    • Organizer
      CREST/LESSAC Workshop in Experimental Economics
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A Resolution of the Centipede Paradox: Cognitive Bounds, Inertial Behavior, and Degree of Counterfactuality2022

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichiro Ishikawa
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Foundations of Game Theory: Logic, bounded rationality, and Decisions
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 多様な交渉能力を伴う値切り競争2022

    • Author(s)
      滕健勇
    • Organizer
      第13回横幹連合コンファレンス
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 推奨意向の信頼性2021

    • Author(s)
      石川竜一郎
    • Organizer
      日本経営工学会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Irrelevance in Strategic Argumentation for Multiple Audiences2021

    • Author(s)
      石川竜一郎
    • Organizer
      数理経済学会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Can Bubbles in Asset Markets be Explained by Heterogeneity of Beliefs?2021

    • Author(s)
      Ryuichiro Ishikawa
    • Organizer
      Western Economics Association International Conference 2021 (WEAI Virtual International Conference 2021)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] コミュニケーション場のメカニズムデザイン2021

    • Author(s)
      谷口 忠大、石川 竜一郎
    • Total Pages
      288
    • Publisher
      慶應義塾大学出版会
    • ISBN
      4766427734
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Workshop on Foundations of Game Theory: Logic, Bounded Rationality, and Decisions2022

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report

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Published: 2020-08-03   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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