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Forecasting catastrophic collapses in island forest ecosystems following decline in endangered keystone species

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K21864
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Medium-sized Section 64:Environmental conservation measure and related fields
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Vincenot C.E.  京都大学, 情報学研究科, 助教 (80751908)

Project Period (FY) 2020-07-30 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Discontinued (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥6,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Keywordssimulation modelling / bats / chiroptera / mutualism / island / simulation / mechanistic model / regimen shift / ecosystem collapse / pollination / bat / seed dispersal / forest regeneration / ecological modelling / Pteropus / agent-based model / individual-based model / foraging / coloniality / keystone species / islands
Outline of Research at the Start

Endangered keystone species are crucial actors on islands, as they sustain forest communities in unique mutualistic relationships. Island ecosystems might collapse due to cascading effects following decline in key species. We propose to prototype an original simulation model to reproduce this system in the case of threatened fruit bats on subtropical islands. Our goal is to create the first tool to offer insights on the importance of bat-forest dynamics in real-life cases. It will also predict trends in costly wildlife-agriculture conflicts afflicting island nations.

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

The project was delayed due to COVID the first year, which prevented the data collection to take place. The schedule was therefore postponed by one year. However, in the first months of FY2022, a change of institution of the PI resulted in the forced termination of this grant. Hence, the project was aborted before it could be in full swing. The only results to report are one publication linked with some early data collection, as well as collaboration agreements with researchers abroad to undertake jointly the simulation modelling work.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2022 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Luxembourg(ルクセンブルク)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Toulouse 1 Capitole(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Amidst nets and typhoons: conservation implications of bat-farmer conflicts on Okinawa Island2022

    • Author(s)
      WEERACH CHARERNTANTANAKUL, SHOZO SHIBATA and CHRISTIAN ERNEST VINCENOT
    • Journal Title

      Oryx

      Volume: in press

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Ryukyu Flying Fox - Ecological Importance and Conservation Threats,2022

    • Author(s)
      Collazo A.M., Vincenot C.E.
    • Organizer
      Ecological Society of Japan 68th Annual Meeting, Okayama, Japan
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Large Island Fruit Bats Under Threat - A Global to Local Perspective2022

    • Author(s)
      Vincenot C.E., Kingston T., Florens V.F.B., Collazo A.M.
    • Organizer
      The Mammal Society of Japan, Tokyo, Japan
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Ryukyu Flying Fox - Ecological Importance and Conservation Threats2022

    • Author(s)
      Vincenot C.E., Collazo A.M.
    • Organizer
      European Bat Research Symposium, Turku, Finland
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Remarks] 島コウモリ調査グループ

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

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Published: 2020-08-03   Modified: 2023-12-25  

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