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Forecasting model for the global marine container transportation market

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K22129
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
Research InstitutionTakushoku University

Principal Investigator

Matsuda Takuma  拓殖大学, 商学部, 教授 (40882535)

Project Period (FY) 2020-09-11 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywordsコンテナ / 国際物流 / コンテナ海運 / コンテナ市況 / コンテナ市場
Outline of Research at the Start

この研究では,近年におけるビッグデータの精度向上を前提に,計量経済学で用いられるようになったより新しい手法によって,実務者がコンパクトに使える,コンテナ輸送の荷動きや運賃を予測できるモデルを構築することをめざしています.さらに,モデルの構築と分析を通じて,世界各地で実行される国際物流施策が相互にどのように影響を及ぼしあうか,各地域における国際物流環境が将来的にどのように変化するかを検証することも目標に置いています.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we (1) applied a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to container transport volumes on major shipping routes and nine economic indicators thought to affect them, and (2) compared the forecasting performance of a machine learning model and a time series model for freight rate indicators on major shipping routes. In the former case, we verified the persistence of the impact of economic conditions on container transport trends in exporting countries. The latter showed that differences in the container transportation market environment affect the accuracy of the freight rate forecasting model.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

(1)の結果は,経済指標がコンテナ輸送に与える影響の持続性を初めて示しており,海運や貿易などのビジネスに携わる人々が経済指標の変化に基づいて適切な意思決定を行うための貴重な情報となると考えられる.たとえば,海運業者による船舶の配船や荷主の運賃交渉などに有用であると考えられる.この結果を参考に輸出国のメーカーや輸入国の荷主も生産量や発注量・在庫量を適切に調整できる.(2)の研究は,コンテナ運賃に関する予測精度の向上に貢献しており,コンテナ船市場の運賃動向の実務者による理解や意思決定の合理性を高めることに貢献すると考えられる.また,運賃デリバティブへの投資に対する示唆も得られると考えられる.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (16 results)

All 2022 2021 2020

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 7 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Forecasting Shanghai Container Freight Index: A Deep-Learning-Based Model Experiment2022

    • Author(s)
      Enna Hirata and Takuma Matsuda
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

      Volume: 10(5) Issue: 5 Pages: 593-593

    • DOI

      10.3390/jmse10050593

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Global Maritime Container Shipping Networks 1969-1981: Emergence of Container Shipping and Reopening of the Suez Canal2022

    • Author(s)
      Tomohiro Saito, Ryuichi Shibasaki, Shinsuke Murakami, Kenmei Tsubota and Takuma Matsuda
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

      Volume: 10(5) Issue: 5 Pages: 602-602

    • DOI

      10.3390/jmse10050602

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The durability of economic indicators in container shipping demand: a case study of East Asia?US container transport2021

    • Author(s)
      Kawasaki Tomoya、Matsuda Takuma、Lau Yui-yip、Fu Xiaowen
    • Journal Title

      Maritime Business Review

      Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 288-304

    • DOI

      10.1108/mabr-12-2020-0075

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Uncover the Impact of COVID-19 on Shipping and Logistics2021

    • Author(s)
      Enna Hirata and Takuma Matsuda
    • Journal Title

      Maritime Business Review

      Volume: ahead-of-print Issue: 4 Pages: 305-317

    • DOI

      10.1108/mabr-03-2021-0018

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Monopoly in Container Shipping Market: An Econometric Approach2021

    • Author(s)
      Takuma Matsuda, Enna Hirata and Tomoya Kawasaki
    • Journal Title

      Maritime Business Review

      Volume: ahead-of-print Issue: 4 Pages: 318-331

    • DOI

      10.1108/mabr-12-2020-0071

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Impact of China’s Tightening Environmental Regulations on International Waste Trade and Logistics2021

    • Author(s)
      Tran Trang、Goto Hiromasa、Matsuda Takuma
    • Journal Title

      Sustainability

      Volume: 13 Issue: 2 Pages: 987-987

    • DOI

      10.3390/su13020987

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Identifying Factors for Selecting Land over Maritime in Inter-Regional Cross-Border Transport2021

    • Author(s)
      Hanaoka Shinya、Matsuda Takuma、Saito Wataru、Kawasaki Tomoya、Hiraide Takashi
    • Journal Title

      Sustainability

      Volume: 13 Issue: 3 Pages: 1471-1471

    • DOI

      10.3390/su13031471

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] isentangling Cartel Dissolution: The Case of the 1980s' Container Crisis2022

    • Author(s)
      Takuma Matsuda
    • Organizer
      International Association of Maritime Economists 2022 Conference, Busan
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Clustering Phases for Container Freight Market: An approach based on Hidden Markov model2021

    • Author(s)
      Takuma Matsuda and Enna Hirata
    • Organizer
      International Association of Maritime Economists 2021 Conference
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 最近の国際海上コンテナ輸送の状況2021

    • Author(s)
      松田琢磨
    • Organizer
      日本物流学会関東部会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] コンテナ市場における独占度の検証2020

    • Author(s)
      松田琢磨,平田燕奈,川崎智也
    • Organizer
      日本海運経済学会第54回年次大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] コロナ禍がもたらす物流への影響に関する一考察 -自然言語処理の観点から2020

    • Author(s)
      平田燕奈,松田琢磨
    • Organizer
      日本海運経済学会第54回年次大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A comparison of traditional and machine learning-based models in predicting Shanghai Containerized Freight Index2020

    • Author(s)
      Enna Hirata and Takuma Matsuda
    • Organizer
      The Asian Logistics Round Table (ALRT) 2020 Conference
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Has the Container Shipping Market been Monopolized?2020

    • Author(s)
      akuma Matsuda, Enna Hirata and Tomoya Kawasaki
    • Organizer
      T-log 2020 Conference
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A discussion on how covid-19 impacts shipping and logistics: Insights from web mining2020

    • Author(s)
      Enna Hirata and Takuma Matsuda
    • Organizer
      T-log 2020 Conference
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] PORT 2030 と輸出貨物の重要性2020

    • Author(s)
      松田琢磨
    • Total Pages
      15
    • Publisher
      成山堂書店
    • ISBN
      9784425395019
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

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Published: 2020-09-29   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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