| Project/Area Number |
21360127
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Power engineering/Power conversion/Electric machinery
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| Research Institution | Nagoya University |
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Principal Investigator |
KATO Takeyoshi 名古屋大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (90283465)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
SUZUOKI Yasuo 名古屋大学, 大学院・工学研究科, 教授 (10115587)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2012
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥18,720,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,320,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥14,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,360,000)
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| Keywords | 太陽光発電 / 日射 / 予測 / 電力系統 / 都市 / 太陽光発電システム / 日射強度 / 平滑化効果 / 負荷周波数制御 / 発電機起動停止計画 / 系統解析 / 日射量 / 電源計画 / 統計解析 |
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| Research Abstract |
By analyzing both the irradiance data observed 17 points within the area of 4 km radius and the data in the Chubu region provided by a cooperative company , this study revealed that because of the independency of short-cycle fluctuation, single point observation data can represent the fluctuation characteristics of the spatial average irradiance within the area of 15 - 20 km radius, when the 1/√N rule is applied. By applying the so-called transition theorem based on this result, this study developed the low -pass filter which takes into account the smoothing effect of irradiance fluctuation around individual observation point. Then, by applying the LPF to the observed irradiance at 61 points in the Chubu region and by considering the contribution of individual points related to the distribution of the detached-houses, this study calculated the spatial average irradiance of Chubu region, and evaluated the fluctuation characteristics in terms of short-cycle (32 min or shorter) fluctuation or the annual occurrence rate of large change in a few hours. In addition, this study developed a day-ahead forecasting method of spatial average irradiance for the evaluation of fluctuation characteristics from the predictability point of view. On the other hand, this study developed the interpolation method to estimate the irradiance of an arbitrary location from the observation data of surrounding-points, and the nowcasting method of spatial average irradiance of the area of a few km radius.
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