| Budget Amount *help |
¥18,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,380,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥5,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,380,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥7,540,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,740,000)
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| Research Abstract |
Epidemic dynamics of an infectious disease spreading over the commute network in Tokyo metropolitan area is analyzed using a simple mathematical model. The model is formulated based on the meta-population connected by commuter trains where each population is interconnected by commuter flows. Here, the actual data from the Urban Transportation Census(Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) is used to simulate the movements of commuters. The effect of infectiousness of pathogen and the structure of commute network are investigated and the following results are obtained. The probability of global epidemic and the final size of global epidemic are mainly determined by the joint distribution of home and work population sizes, but is insensitive to the geographical or topological structure of the network.
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