Epidemics and evolution on the commuter network in metropolitan area
Project/Area Number |
21370009
|
Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
|
Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
Section | 一般 |
Research Field |
Ecology/Environment
|
Research Institution | The Graduate University for Advanced Studies |
Principal Investigator |
SASAKI Akira 総合研究大学院大学, 先導科学研究科, 教授 (90211937)
|
Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2011
|
Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
|
Budget Amount *help |
¥18,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,380,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥5,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,380,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥7,540,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,740,000)
|
Keywords | 空間明示的疫学モデル / 交通流動ネットワーク / インフルエンザ / ウイルス強毒株変異 / 伝染病防除政策 / 口蹄疫 / 農場ベースモデル / 分岐過程 / 感染症 / ネットワーク / 交通流動調査 / ハブ / コンパートメントモデル / 空間情報 / 伝染病 / ネットワークトの感染動態 / 病原体の毒性 / 小さな世界 / 大都市交通センサス / 基本増殖率 / 空間構造 / 個体ベースモデル |
Research Abstract |
Epidemic dynamics of an infectious disease spreading over the commute network in Tokyo metropolitan area is analyzed using a simple mathematical model. The model is formulated based on the meta-population connected by commuter trains where each population is interconnected by commuter flows. Here, the actual data from the Urban Transportation Census(Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) is used to simulate the movements of commuters. The effect of infectiousness of pathogen and the structure of commute network are investigated and the following results are obtained. The probability of global epidemic and the final size of global epidemic are mainly determined by the joint distribution of home and work population sizes, but is insensitive to the geographical or topological structure of the network.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(52 results)