Longitudinal Analysis of Influence upon Traffic Demand Caused by Declining Birthrate and Increasing Ratio of Elderly People
| Project/Area Number |
21510154
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | Tohoku University of Art and Design |
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Principal Investigator |
KOTO Hiroshi 東北芸術工科大学, 教養教育センター, 准教授 (60244985)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
MIURA Hidetoshi 南山大学, 情報理工学部, 教授 (30306253)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2012
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
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| Keywords | 社会システム / メッシュデータ / 1/2メッシュ / 過疎地域 / コーホート変化率 / 高齢化率 / 食料品店の分布 / 最近隣距離 / 人口推計 / 人口予測 / 1 / 2メッシュ |
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| Research Abstract |
We studied about population estimation and the relation between facilities distribution and population distribution. All metrics are constructed using the Japanese national census and labour force survey for 11 years. Using 1/2-size grid system data, following results were achieved.
(1) In the population estimation, we have shown that the influence of the concealed grid can be weakened, if we treat the grid system data by integrating the unit length into 2 km.
(2) The error treatment technique for time series data were established.
(3) From the analysis of the relationship between shopping activities and population which may influence traffic demand, we found that attracting retailers to underpopulated areas is very difficult, under both the conditions of increasing the elderly population and of decreasing birthrate. Moreover, the probability that retailers will be maintained in the future was clarified from the relation of the distance between residents and retailers.
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(49 results)
