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Loss given default estimation for small companies using big database of recovery

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21530323
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Public finance/Monetary economics
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

YAMASHITA Satoshi  統計数理研究所, データ科学研究系, 教授 (50244108)

Project Period (FY) 2009 – 2012
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywords信用リスク / 回収率 / LGD / 新BIS規制 / 代位弁済 / 回収行動 / 担保 / 保証制度 / 債権回収率 / 担保・保証 / 多層ロジットモデル / 正常復帰確率 / 統合データベース / ビッグデータ
Research Abstract

This study have made efficient statistical models for estimating credit risk, especially simultaneous estimating both default probability and recovery rate. Fore assignments as bellow are done. 1. Sophisticating models of estimating default probability and credit rating 2. Developing models of estimating recovery rate 3. Standardization for recovery rate database 4. Developing credit risk models to consider business cycle.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2012 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • 2009 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (31 results)

All 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Other

All Journal Article (19 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 14 results) Presentation (10 results) (of which Invited: 1 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] 回収実績データに基づくLGDの要因分析と多段階モデルによるLGD及びEL推計2013

    • Author(s)
      川田章広、山下智志
    • Journal Title

      FSAリサーチレビュー

      Volume: 7-2012

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A collateralized loan's loss under a quadratic Gaussian default intensity process2013

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, S. and Yoshiba, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance

      Volume: vol.13-5

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analytical solutions for variance of loss with an additional loan2013

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, S. and Yoshiba, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Research Memorandum

      Volume: 1171

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 回収実績データに基づくLGDの要因分析と多段階モデルによるLGDおよびEL推計2013

    • Author(s)
      川田章広, 山下智志
    • Journal Title

      FSAリサーチレビュー

      Volume: 7-2012 Pages: 1-33

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A collateralized loan’s loss under a quadratic Gaussian default intensity process2013

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, S. and Yoshiba, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Quantitative Finance

      Volume: vol.13-5 Pages: 1-28

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analytical solutions for variance of loss with an additional loan2013

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, S. and Yoshiba, Y
    • Journal Title

      Research Memorandum

      Volume: 1171 Pages: 1-27

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 与信判断が確率変動するときの倒産企業の信用リスク値分布のモデル化 - Skew-normal分布の応用2011

    • Author(s)
      大野忠士、山下智志、椿広計
    • Journal Title

      統計数理

      Volume: 59-1

    • NAID

      120006020389

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 2次ガウス過程を用いた担保付貸出の解析的な損失分布のモーメント評価2011

    • Author(s)
      山下智志、吉羽要直
    • Journal Title

      統計数理

      Volume: 59-1

    • NAID

      120006020388

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analytical Solution for the Loss Distribution of a Collateralized Loan under a Quadratic Gaussian Default Intensity Process2011

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, S. and Yoshiba N.
    • Journal Title

      Bank of Japan Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 2001-E-20

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 与信判断が確率変動するときの倒産企業の信用リスク値分布のモデル化-Skew-normal分布の応用2011

    • Author(s)
      大野忠士, 山下智志, 椿広計
    • Journal Title

      統計数理

      Volume: 59-1 Pages: 141-157

    • NAID

      120006020389

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 2次ガウス過程を用いた担保付貸出の解析的な損失分布のモーメント評価2011

    • Author(s)
      山下智志, 吉羽要直
    • Journal Title

      統計数理

      Volume: 59-1 Pages: 141-157

    • NAID

      120006020388

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analytical Solution for the Loss Distribution of a Collater alized Loan under a Quadratic Gaussian Default Intensity Process2011

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, S., Yoshiba, T
    • Journal Title

      Bank of Japan Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 2001-E-20 Pages: 1-24

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Area under the curve maximization method in credit scoring2010

    • Author(s)
      Miura, K.、Yamashita, S. and Eguchi, M.
    • Journal Title

      The Journal of Risk Model Validation

      Volume: vol.4 No.2

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 信用リスク管理モデルの大きな潮流/回収率推計の展開2010

    • Author(s)
      山下智志
    • Journal Title

      CRDジャーナル

      Volume: 10周年記念号

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report 2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Analytical Solution for Expected Loss of a Collateralized Loan: A square-root intensity process negatively coorrelated with the collateral value2010

    • Author(s)
      山下智志、吉羽要直
    • Journal Title

      IMES Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 2010-J-29

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] (2010) Area under the curve maximization method in credit scoring2010

    • Author(s)
      Miura, K., Yamashita, S., Eguchi.
    • Journal Title

      The Journal of Risk Model Validation

      Volume: vol.4 No.2 Pages: 3-24

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analytical Solution for Expected Loss of a Collateralized Loan : A square-root intensity process negatively coorrelated with the collateral value2010

    • Author(s)
      山下智志, 吉羽要直
    • Journal Title

      IMES Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 2010-J-29 Pages: 1-16

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 内部格付手法における回収率・期待損失の統計型モデル 実績回収率データを用いたEL・LGD推計2010

    • Author(s)
      三浦翔、山下智志、江口真透
    • Journal Title

      FSAリサーチレビュー 2009

      Pages: 174-205

    • NAID

      40017084092

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 内部格付手法における回収率・期待損失の統計型モデル 実績回収率データを用いたEL・LGD推計2009

    • Author(s)
      三浦翔、山下智志、江口真透
    • Journal Title

      FSAリサーチレビュー

      Pages: 174-205

    • NAID

      40017084092

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 信用リスクデータベース(CRD)の決算書データに対するKNN法による欠損値補完2013

    • Author(s)
      山下智志、高橋淳一
    • Organizer
      JAFEE冬季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Year and Date
      2013-01-19
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 中小企業大規模データベースに基づく欠測を考慮した信用リスク評価について2012

    • Author(s)
      宮本道子、山下智志、安藤雅和、逸見昌之、高橋淳一
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Year and Date
      2012-09-10
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] デフォルトを起こした企業の返済可能性2012

    • Author(s)
      山下智志
    • Organizer
      金融庁ワークショップ2012
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Year and Date
      2012-07-08
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 回収実績データを用いたLGDおよびELと計量化モデルの課題2012

    • Author(s)
      山下智志
    • Organizer
      、リスク解析戦略研究センター シンポジウム 新しい金融データ分析とリスク管理手法
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-15
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 回収実績データを用いたLGDおよびELと計量化モデルの課題2012

    • Author(s)
      山下智志
    • Organizer
      リスク解析戦略研究センターシンポジウム新しい金融データ分析とリスク管理手法
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-15
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Public information sharing for research and education : Data for Economics2011

    • Author(s)
      Yamashita, S.
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Information System for Social Innovation
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Year and Date
      2011-02-28
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report 2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 金融リスク~企業倒産の判別問題の現状と課題2009

    • Author(s)
      山下智志
    • Organizer
      第12回情報論的学習理論ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      九州大学
    • Year and Date
      2009-10-09
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report 2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 中小企業大規模データベースに基づく欠測を考慮した信用リスク評価について

    • Author(s)
      宮本道子, 山下智志, 安藤雅和, 逸見昌之, 高橋淳一
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 信用リスクデータベース(CRD)の決算書データに対するKNN 法による欠損値補完

    • Author(s)
      山下智志, 高橋淳一
    • Organizer
      JAFEE冬季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] デフォルトを起こした企業の返済可能性

    • Author(s)
      山下智志
    • Organizer
      金融庁ワークショップ2012
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] 信用リスクモデルの予測精度 -AR値と評価指標-2011

    • Author(s)
      山下智志、三浦翔
    • Total Pages
      200
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 信用リスクモデルの予測精度-AR値と評価指標-2011

    • Author(s)
      山下智志、三浦翔
    • Total Pages
      200
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2009-04-01   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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