| Project/Area Number |
21560538
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Nagoya Institute of Technology |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
KITANO Toshikazu 名古屋工業大学, 大学院・工学研究科, 准教授 (00284307)
|
|---|
| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TAKAHASHI Rinya 神戸大学, 大学院・海事科学研究科, 教授 (80030047)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2011
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | 海岸工学 / 極値統計学 / 自然災害 / 自然現象観測 / 気候変動 / 防災 / 洪水 / 高波・高潮 / 極値統計モデル / 再現期間 / 点過程モデル / 極値統計解析 / 南方振動指数 / 高潮・高波・洪水 / 経験度 |
|---|
| Research Abstract |
Extrapolation plays an essential role for evaluating sea extremes frequencies, which is why the concept of return period has been in troduced. But we use the return period(or the extrapolation) with out being aware of the hidden double meanings. The return period employed in handling the past record is substituted for the period of the coming successive event in the future. We can obtain the design for ce(the return level) by extrapolation of the observed data in the past years, while we should apply it for the future by the extension over the real time, which is ano ther extrapolation. We should notice the limitations for extending the return level's estimation, by in troducing the important in dices : the degree of experience and the durability.
|
