| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Research Abstract |
A regional characteristics and variations of morbidity for pediatric infectious diseases and influenza are analyzed by use of the specialization coefficient which is presented as ratio between the national average number of reports and regional incidents. Regional morbidities of pediatric infectious diseases and influenza are shown in a bar graph to illustrate transition over 30 years, and specialization coefficient values are displayed in a map graph to clarify the regional characteristics and variations.
A web-based data visualization system was developed to make the infectious disease surveillance data more comprehensible for medical personnel. The main feature of the system is that it automatically generates an animation or graphic images by using the collected numerical data which visualizes the time series and spatial shift of the case incidents of disease simultaneously on the home page. At this time, the information stored in the database system is influenza and eleven pediatric infectious diseases from 1999 to the present related to 47 prefectures in Japan.
In addition, epidemic prediction values for the following year(12 months) were calculated using : a) the EPA(Economic Planning Agency) method and a synthetic method using trend analysis and multiple regression analysis, b) ARIMA FORECAST, and c) analogous vector fitting. The calculated prediction values were compared with actual measured values to discuss the utility of the algorithm.
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