Prediction Models and Scale Invariance
| Project/Area Number |
21654054
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Mathematical physics/Fundamental condensed matter physics
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| Research Institution | Kitasato University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2011
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,980,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000)
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| Keywords | 非平衡・非線形物理学 / 社会物理 / 情報カスケード / 予測モデル / スケール不変性 / 統計力学 / 確率モデル / 相転移 / 投票 / 集団知 / 群れ / 予測精度 / ランダムウォーク / 予測 / 競馬市場 / Accuracy Ratio / べき乗則 / カオス |
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| Research Abstract |
We have performed the analysis of the predictions in a race-track betting market, weather forecasts and credit risks from the view point of scale invariance. It was well known that the win bet fractions of horses in horse races are almost equal to the winning probabilities. We have found that if the win bet fraction is less than 1%, the coincidence does not hold. There, the power-law relation between the cumulative fractions of the winning horse and the losing horses holds. Starting from the discovery, we have proposed several stochastic models which focus on how the prediction are formed among many individuals. We have also performed social experiments to verify the predictions of the models. The most important result is that by the inherent nature of human to copy others, there occurs a phase transition on the macroscopic level.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(16 results)
