A study on the estimation of person trip variations in a hypothetical earthquake : A path-dependence approach

Research Project

Project/Area Number	21656126
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Research Field	Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
Research Institution	University of Tsukuba
Principal Investigator	CHOE Jae-young 筑波大学, 人文社会系, 准教授 (80332550)
Project Period (FY)	2009 – 2011
Project Status	Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
Budget Amount *help	¥3,280,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000) Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000) Fiscal Year 2010: ¥600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000) Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000)
Keywords	地震 / 交通需要 / 交通需要変動 / パーソントリップ / 経路依存性
Research Abstract	Based on the analysis of existing concepts concerning person trips and by using original survey data collected between 2001 and 2009, this study proposes new ways to estimate various person trips after earthquakes. In previous studies, researchers, by a static method, have estimated travel demands on return-home trips (RHTs) after the occurrence of an earthquake. In contrast to such a method, in the new interpretation of this data, RHT travel demand will be assessed using novel concepts, including dynamic trips, simulations of sudden earthquake occurrences (at 5-minute intervals), enhanced details featuring five locations between origins and destinations, and the path dependencies of 16 types of response trips. By using GIS, variations of person trips on a hypothetical earthquake can be more realistically and accurately estimated.