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Theoretical estimation of rare event probabilities in queueing and insurance risk models

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21710151
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

MASUYAMA Hiroyuki  京都大学, 大学院・情報学研究科, 助教 (60378833)

Project Period (FY) 2009 – 2011
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords待ち行列 / 集合的リスク / マルコフ加法過程 / 累積過程 / 希少事象確率 / 漸近解析 / 保険リスク評価 / GI/G/1型マルコフ連鎖 / マルコフ連鎖
Research Abstract

The goal of this research project is the theoretical estimation of rare event probabilities in queueing and insurance risk models. To achieve the goal, we studied the asymptotics for the stationary distributions of Markov additive processes with reflecting barriers and for the tail probabilities of cumulative processes sampled at heavy-tailed random times. As a result, we relaxed the conditions on some existing asymptotic formulas and derived new asymptotic formulas. Furthermore, we found out that some asymptotic formulas in the literature are incorrect.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2011 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • 2009 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (32 results)

All 2012 2011 2010 2009 Other

All Journal Article (13 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 11 results) Presentation (15 results) Remarks (4 results)

  • [Journal Article] Heavy-Traffic Asymptotics for Stationary GI/G/1-Type Markov Chains2012

    • Author(s)
      Tatsuaki Kimura, Hiroyuki Masuyama and Yutaka Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Operations Research Letters

      Volume: vol.40, no.3 Issue: 3 Pages: 158-189

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.orl.2012.01.001

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report 2011 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 集団on-off到着過程によるインターネットトラヒック同定法の検討2012

    • Author(s)
      原健三, 増山博之, 笠原正治, 高橋豊
    • Journal Title

      IEICE Technical Report

      Volume: NS2011-250 Pages: 397-402

    • NAID

      110009545064

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Sub exponential Asymptotics of the Stationary Distributions of M/G/1-Type Markov Chains2011

    • Author(s)
      Hiroyuki Masuyama
    • Journal Title

      European Journal of Operational Research

      Volume: vol.213, no.3 Issue: 3 Pages: 509-516

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ejor.2011.03.038

    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Light-Tailed Asymptotics of Stationary Tail Probability Vectors of Markov Chains of M/G/1 Type2010

    • Author(s)
      Tatsuaki Kimura, Kentaro Daikoku, Hiroyuki Masuyama and Yutaka Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Stochastic Models

      Volume: vol.26, no.4 Issue: 4 Pages: 505-548

    • DOI

      10.1080/15326349.2010.519661

    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] State-Dependent M/M/c/c+ r Retrial Queues with Bernoulli Abandonment2010

    • Author(s)
      Tuan Phung-Duc, Hiroyuki Masuyama, Shoji Kasahara and Yutaka Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization

      Volume: vol.6, no.3 Issue: 3 Pages: 517-540

    • DOI

      10.3934/jimo.2010.6.517

    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Light-Tailed Asymptotics of Stationary Tail Probability Vectors of Markov Chains of M/G/1 Type2010

    • Author(s)
      T.Kimura, K.Daikoku, H.Masuyama, Y.Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Stochastic Models

      Volume: 26 Pages: 505-548

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] State-dependent M/M/c/c+r Retrial Queues with Bernoulli Abandonment2010

    • Author(s)
      T.Phung-Duc, H.Masuyama, S.Kasahara, Y.Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization

      Volume: 6 Pages: 517-540

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Burst Transmission Algorithm to Improve Packet Level Performance in Contention-Free Slotted OBS Networks2010

    • Author(s)
      H.Kawanami, H.Masuyama, T.Tachibana, S.Kasahara, Y.Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Photonic Network Communications

      Volume: 20 Pages: 54-63

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Subexponential tail asymptotics of the Markov chain of GI/G/1 type2010

    • Author(s)
      木村達明, 増山博之, 高橋豊
    • Journal Title

      第28回待ち行列シンポジウム「確率モデルとその応用」報文集

      Pages: 220-229

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Sub exponential Asymptotics of the BMAP/GI/1 Queue2009

    • Author(s)
      Hiroyuki Masuyama, Bin Liu and Tetsuya Takine
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan

      Volume: vol.52, no.4 Pages: 377-401

    • NAID

      110007502455

    • URL

      http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/110007502455

    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] M/M/3/3 and M/M/4/4 Retrial Queues2009

    • Author(s)
      Tuan Phung-Duc, Hiroyuki Masuyama, Shoji Kasahara and Yutaka Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization

      Volume: vol.5, no.3 Issue: 3 Pages: 431-451

    • DOI

      10.3934/jimo.2009.5.431

    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Subexponential Asymptotics of the BMAP/GI/1 Queue2009

    • Author(s)
      Hiroyuki Masuyama, Bin Liu, Tetsuya Takine
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan 52

      Pages: 377-401

    • NAID

      110007502455

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] M/M/3/3 and M/M/4/4 Retrial Queues2009

    • Author(s)
      Tuan Phung-Duc, Hiroyuki Masuyama, Shoji Kasa hara, Yutaka Takahashi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization 5

      Pages: 431-451

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 集団on-off到着過程によるインターネットトラヒック同定法の検討2012

    • Author(s)
      原健三, 増山博之, 笠原正治, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告
    • Place of Presentation
      宮崎シーガイヤ
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Heavy-Traffic Asymptotics for Stationary GI/G/1-Type Markov Chains2012

    • Author(s)
      木村達明, 増山博之, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      第30回待ち行列シンポジウム「確率モデルとその応用」
    • Place of Presentation
      静岡県浜松市
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Heavy-traffic asymptotics for stationary Gl/G/1-type Markov chains2012

    • Author(s)
      木村達明, 増山博之, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      第30回待ち行列シンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      ホテルクラウンパレス浜松(静岡県)
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Tail Asymptotics of GI/G/1-Type Markov Chains2011

    • Author(s)
      木村達明, 増山博之, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      第227回待ち行列研究部会
    • Place of Presentation
      京大東京オフィス
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-21
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Tail asymptotics of Gl/G/1-type Markov chains2011

    • Author(s)
      木村達明, 増山博之, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      第227回待ち行列研究部会(日本OR学会)
    • Place of Presentation
      京大東京オフィス(品川)
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-21
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 先着順型マルチクラスM/G/1待ち行列の軽裾漸近公式2011

    • Author(s)
      原健三, 増山博之, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会研究部会「OR横断若手の会」第5回研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学
    • Year and Date
      2011-04-16
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] マルチクラスM/G/1待ち行列の重負荷極限2011

    • Author(s)
      原健三, 増山博之, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会研究部会「OR横断若手の会」主催「若手研究交流会2011」
    • Place of Presentation
      琵琶湖コンファレンスセンター
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Light-Tailed Asymptotics of the Joint Queue Length Distribution of a Multiclass M/G/1 Queue with the FCFS Service Discipline2011

    • Author(s)
      Kenzo Hara, Hiroyuki Masuyama, Yutaka Takahashi
    • Organizer
      IFORS2011, Melbourne
    • Place of Presentation
      Australia
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 拡張型DAR(1)のパラメータフィッティング手法とネットワークトラヒックモデリングへの応用2011

    • Author(s)
      吉原千尋, 増山博之, 笠原正治, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告
    • Place of Presentation
      沖縄コンベンションセンター
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Light-tailed asymptotics of the joint queue length distribution of a multiclass M/G/1 queue with the FCFS service discipline2011

    • Author(s)
      Kenzo Hara, Hiroyuki Masuyama, Yutaka Takahashi
    • Organizer
      IFORS2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Melbourne (Australia)
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] M/G/1型マルコフ連鎖の定常裾確率ベクトルの劣指数漸近特性2010

    • Author(s)
      増山博之
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会 待ち行列研究部会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京工業大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-02-20
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 拡張型DAR(1)のパラメータ決定法-非線形計画問題としてのアプローチ-2010

    • Author(s)
      吉原千尋, 増山博之, 笠原正治, 高橋豊
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会2010年秋季研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      福島県福島市
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Simple Algorithm for the Rate Matrices of Level-Dependent QBD Processes2010

    • Author(s)
      Tuan Phung-Duc, Hiroyuki Masuyama, Shoji Kasahara and Yutaka Takahashi, J. Wang, W. Yue, Y. Takahashi
    • Organizer
      In Proc. The 5th International Conference on Queueing Theory and Network Applications
    • Place of Presentation
      Beijing, China
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Simple Algorithm for the Rate Matrices of Level-Dependent QBD Processes2010

    • Author(s)
      T.Phung-Duc, H.Masuyama, S.Kasahara, Y.Takahashi
    • Organizer
      The 5th International Conference on Queueing Theory and Network Applications
    • Place of Presentation
      Beijing, China
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analytical Solutions for State-Dependent M/M/c/c+ r Retrial Queues with Bernoulli Abandonment2009

    • Author(s)
      Tuan Phung-Duc, Hiroyuki Masuyama, Shoji Kasahara and Yutaka Takahashi
    • Organizer
      The 4th International Conference on Queueing Theory and Network Applications
    • Place of Presentation
      Singapore
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://infosys.sys.i.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~masuyama/

    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://infosys.sys.i.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~masuyama/

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://infosys.sys.i.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~masuyama/

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://infosys.sys.i.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~masuyama/

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2009-04-01   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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