Voters'"Disappointment,""Anxiety," and "Hope" and the Possibility of Change in Government Leadership

• Project/Area Number: 21730127
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Politics
• Research Institution: Kobe University (2011); Waseda University (2009-2010)
• Principal Investigator: IIDA Takeshi 神戸大学, 大学院・法学研究科, 特命講師 (50468873)
• Project Period (FY): 2009 – 2011
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
• Keywords: 政権交代 / 総選挙 / 投票行動

Research Abstract

This project examines how Japanese voters become hopeful for and disappointed in political parties through survey data analysis and social science experiments. It also aims at constructing a theory to explain the mechanism under which change in government leadership happens. The main finings include the following:
A simultaneous rise in disappointment and hope lead to higher voter participation and a swing for an opposition party.
Voter support for opposition parties and their disappointment in a ruling party are not two sides of the same coin, meaning that a decline in popularity of a ruling party does not lead to a surge in support for an opposition party.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] 2010年中間選挙におけるティーパーティのインパクト:集計・個人レベルデータを用いた実証分析 (2012)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Journal Title: オバマ政権と過渡期のアメリカ社会:選挙、政党、制度、メディア、対外援助(吉野孝・前嶋和弘編著) Pages: 3-29
• [Journal Article] Popular Culture and Regional Identity in East Asia : Evidence from the Asian Students Survey 2008 (2011)
  • Author(s): Hiro Katsumata and Takeshi Iida
  • Journal Title: Waseda University Global COE Program Global Institute for Asian Regional Integration Working Paper Series
• [Journal Article] 選挙研究における因果推論の研究動向 (2011)
  • Author(s): 飯田健・松林哲也
  • Journal Title: 選挙研究 Volume: 27号(1) Pages: 101-119
  • NAID: 130006900384
• [Journal Article] 計量分析を初めて学ぶあなたへ (2011)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Journal Title: アジアを学ぶ:海外調査研究の手法 Pages: 17-30
• [Journal Article] Popular Culture and Regional Identity in East Asia : Evidence from the Asian Students Survey 2008 (2011)
  • Author(s): Hiro Katsumata, Takeshi Iida
  • Journal Title: Waseda University Global COE Program Global Institute for Asian Regional Integration Working Paper Series Volume: (学内審査有) Pages: 1-19
• [Journal Article] 計量分析を初めて学ぶあなたへ (2011)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Journal Title: アジアを学ぶ:海外調査研究の手法(鴨川明子編著)(勁草書房) Pages: 17-30
• [Journal Article] Constitutions and Public Support for Welfare Policies (2010)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida and Tetsuya Matsubayashi
  • Journal Title: Social Science Quarterly Volume: 91-1 Pages: 42-62
• [Journal Article] オバマ支持連合の政策選好:政権運営へのインプリケーション (2010)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Journal Title: オバマ政権はアメリカをどのように変えたのか:支持連合・政策成果・中間選挙 Pages: 5-27
• [Journal Article] 世襲議員の実証分析 (2010)
  • Author(s): 飯田健・上田路子・松林哲也
  • Journal Title: 選挙研究 Volume: 26号(2) Pages: 139-153
  • NAID: 130005697096
• [Journal Article] 書評: Gelman et al.2010. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State : Why Americans Vote the Way They Do, Expanded Edition, Princeton University Press. (2010)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Journal Title: 選挙研究 Volume: 25-1 Pages: 136-137
• [Journal Article] 投票率の変化をもたらす要因:投票参加の時系列分析 (2009)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Journal Title: 選挙研究 Volume: 25号(2) Pages: 107-118
  • NAID: 130005519950
• [Presentation] Why Voters Become Hopeful for New Leadership? : A Condition for Power Transfer under the Two-party System in Japan (2012)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida
  • Organizer: Political Science Workshop
  • Place of Presentation: Trinity College Dublin
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-16
• [Presentation] Why Does the LDP Remain Unpopular? : A Condition for Power Transfer under the Two Party System in Japan (2012)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida
  • Organizer: 第4回慶応義塾大学GCOE-CGCS国際シンポジウム
  • Place of Presentation: 慶應義塾大学(東京都)
  • Year and Date: 2012-02-05
• [Presentation] 保守主義の形成における政治的・社会的要因:日米保守主義の比較実証分析 (2011)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会
  • Place of Presentation: 岡山大学(岡山県)
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-09
• [Presentation] Collective Identity Perceived by Others : The Determinants of Japanese Attitudes toward South Korea and North Korea (2011)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida
  • Organizer: the Southwestern Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: Las Vegas, NV
  • Year and Date: 2011-03-18
• [Presentation] Under What Condition Can Voters Make Rational Choice?: Voter Preference and Choice in Old-Age Pension Reform in Japan (2011)
  • Author(s): Tsuyoshi Adachi, Takeshi Iida, Masahisa Endo, Kohei Kamaga
  • Organizer: the Southern Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: New Orleans, LA
  • Year and Date: 2011-01-09
• [Presentation] Why Do Voters Become Hopeful for New Leadership?: Voter Risk Attitude and Hope for Opposition Party (2011)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida
  • Organizer: the Southern Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: New Orleans, LA
  • Year and Date: 2011-01-06
• [Presentation] 保守主義の形成における政治的・社会的要因:日米保守主義の比較実証分析 (2011)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会
  • Place of Presentation: 岡山大学
• [Presentation] Collective Identity Perceived by Others : The Determinants of Japanese Attitudes toward South Korea and North Korea (2011)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida
  • Organizer: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southwestern Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: Las Vegas, NV
• [Presentation] Why Do Voters Become Hopeful for New Leadership?: Voter Risk Attitude and Hope for Opposition Party (2011)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida
  • Organizer: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: New Orleans, LA
• [Presentation] Under What Condition Can Voters Make Rational Choice?: Voter Preference and Choice in Old-Age Pension Reform in Japan (2011)
  • Author(s): Tsuyoshi Adachi, Takeshi Iida, Masahisa Endo, and Kohei Kamaga
  • Organizer: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: New Orleans, LA
• [Presentation] Disappointment, Hope, and Voting Behavior i n the 2009 Japanese General Election. (2010)
  • Author(s): Takeshi lida
  • Organizer: A joint seminar of Georgatown and Waseda Universities
  • Place of Presentation: Washington D.C.
  • Year and Date: 2010-03-22
• [Presentation] Disappointment. Hope, and Goverrunent Change : Emotions and Voting Behaviorin the 2009 Japanase General Election. (2010)
  • Author(s): Takeshi lida
  • Organizer: UCLA Terasaki Center for Japanese Studies
  • Place of Presentation: Los Angeles. CA.
  • Year and Date: 2010-01-10
• [Presentation] Disappointmant, Hope, and Government Change : Emotions and Voting Behavior in the 2009 Japanese General Election. (2010)
  • Author(s): Takeshi lida
  • Organizer: The Mnual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association.
  • Place of Presentation: Atlanta, GA.
  • Year and Date: 2010-01-08
• [Presentation] Political Dynasties and Democratic Representation in Japan (2010)
  • Author(s): 浅古泰史・飯田健・上田路子・松林哲也
  • Organizer: 日本経済学会春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 千葉大学
• [Presentation] 有権者の失望、期待と政権交代:早大・読売共同調査の分析 (2010)
  • Author(s): 飯田健
  • Organizer: 日本選挙学会
  • Place of Presentation: 明治大学
• [Presentation] Disappointment, Hope, and Government Change : Emotions and Voting Behavior in the 2009 Japanese General Election (2010)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida
  • Organizer: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: Atlanta, GA
• [Presentation] Information Environment and Voters' Sense of Responsibility (2010)
  • Author(s): Atsushi Osaki, Takeshi Iida, Tak-Lai Ke, Yuji Kobayashi, Yuko Takano, Ai Takeuchi, Daisuke Udagawa, and Motoki Watabe
  • Organizer: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: Atlanta, GA
• [Presentation] Why Do People Vote Incorrectly?" : Risk Attitudes in Voting Behavior." (2009)
  • Author(s): Takeshi lida
  • Organizer: The Mnual Meeting of the Amer ican Political Science Association.
  • Place of Presentation: Toronto, Canada
  • Year and Date: 2009-09-03
• [Presentation] 世襲議員と民主政治 (2009)
  • Author(s): 飯田健・上田路子・松林哲也
  • Organizer: 日本政治学会
  • Place of Presentation: 日本大学
• [Presentation] Why Do People Vote Incorrectly?: Risk Attitudes in Voting Behavior (2009)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Iida
  • Organizer: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
  • Place of Presentation: Toronto, Canada
• [Book] オバマ政権はアメリカをどのように変えたのか:支持連合・政策成果・中間選挙(吉野孝・前嶋和弘編) (2010)
  • Author(s): 飯田健(分担執筆)
  • Total Pages: 238
  • Publisher: 東信堂
• [Book] 2009年、なぜ政権交代だったのか1読売・早稲田の共同調査で読みとく日本政治の転換 (2009)
  • Author(s): 田中愛治・河野勝・日野愛郎・飯田健・読売新聞世論調査部
  • Total Pages: 217
  • Publisher: 勁草書房
• [Book] 2009年、なぜ政権交代だったのか:読売・早稲田の共同調査で読みとく日本政治の転換
  • Author(s): 田中愛治・河野勝・日野愛郎・飯田健
  • Publisher: 勁草書房