CPI forecasts of Japanese economists

Research Project

Project/Area Number	21730158
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Research Field	Economic theory
Research Institution	Kobe University
Principal Investigator	ASHIYA Masahiro 神戸大学, 大学院・経済学研究科, 准教授 (10304057)
Project Period (FY)	2009 – 2011
Project Status	Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
Budget Amount *help	¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000) Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000) Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000) Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords	経済理論 / 経済予測 / 予測の合理性
Research Abstract	This research project evaluates the rationality of 42 Japanese forecasters using monthly consumer price index(CPI) forecasts. It finds that 86% of zero-month forecasts are inferior to the "same-as-the-last-month" forecast, and that most forecasters fail to utilize the latest realization of CPI. Furthermore, the same tendency was observed in one-month forecasts and two-month forecasts : almost all forecasts are irrational in the sense that their forecast errors could be reduced using the latest realization of CPI at the time the forecasts were made. The forecast error of the consensus forecast is smaller than that of a typical forecaster, but it could be reduced using the latest realization of CPI.