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Verification of the rational bubbles by time series analysis

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21730175
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Economic statistics
Research InstitutionKansai University (2010-2012)
Kyushu University (2009)

Principal Investigator

KATAYAMA Naoya  関西大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (80452720)

Project Period (FY) 2009 – 2012
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
KeywordsM検定 / 分散不均一 / ラグランジマルチプライヤー検定 / かばん検定 / OIR検定 / Hausmanの検定 / M 検定 / Weak VAR model / Portmanteau test / Residual autocorrelation / Goodness-of-fit test / Diagnostic checking / 時系列解析 / 合理的バブル / ADF検定 / 構造変化 / 予測
Research Abstract

To apply to modern financial data, the minister of the research tried to develop the method for M tests which includes the portmanteau tests and is robust not only to heteroscedasticity and serial correlations of unknown form but also to the presence of an estimation effect. The test is a robust M test using the method of Kiefer, Vogelsang, and Bunzel (2000, Econometrica) (referred to as KVB). As applications, we consider robust LM tests, portmanteau tests, GMM over-identification tests and the Hausman tests.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2012 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • 2009 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (23 results)

All 2012 2011 2010 2009 Other

All Journal Article (9 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results) Presentation (8 results) Book (3 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Chi-Squared Portmanteau Tests for structural VARMA models with uncorrelated errors2012

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Time Series Analysis

      Volume: 33 Pages: 863-872

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Chi-squared portmanteau tests for structural VARMA models with uncorrelated errors2012

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Time Series Analysis

      Volume: 33 Issue: 6 Pages: 863-872

    • DOI

      10.1111/j.1467-9892.2012.00799.x

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Robust M Tests Using Projection Matrices2012

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Journal Title

      Woking Paper Series F-56, Economic Society of Kansai University

      Volume: F-56 Pages: 1-18

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Chi-Squared Portmanteau Tests for structural VARMA models with uncorrelated errors2012

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Journal Title

      Woking Paper Series F-54, Economic Society of Kansai University

      Volume: F-54 Pages: 1-27

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Chi-squared portmanteau tests for weak vector autoregressive models2011

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Journal Title

      Economic Society of Kansai University Working Paper Series.

      Volume: F47. Pages: 1-23

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] On Multiple Portmanteau Tests2009

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Time Series Analysis

      Volume: 30(5) Pages: 487-504

    • NAID

      40016109143

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On Multiple Portmanteau Tests2009

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Time Series Analysis 30(5)

      Pages: 487-504

    • NAID

      40016109143

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Simulation Studies of Multiple Portmanteau Tests2009

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, 2009-4, Faculty of Economics, Kyushu University 2009-4

      Pages: 1-57

    • NAID

      40016662122

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 合理的バブルの検定の検出力について2009

    • Author(s)
      片山直也
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, 2009-7, Faculty of Economics, Kyushu University 2009-7

      Pages: 1-38

    • NAID

      40016782880

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Proposal of Two Robust M tests2012

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Organizer
      2012 (EC)2 Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      オランダ マーストリヒト大学
    • Year and Date
      2012-12-14
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Proposal of Two Robust M tests2012

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Organizer
      2012 (EC)2 Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Maastrict University(The Netherlands)
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Chi-Squared Portmanteau Statistics for Vector Autoregressive Models with Uncorrelated Errors2010

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Organizer
      Hitotsubashi Conference on Econometrics 2010
    • Place of Presentation
      一橋大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-21
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Chi-squared portmanteau tests for weak vector autoregressive models2010

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Organizer
      Hitotsubashi Conference on Econometrics 2010
    • Place of Presentation
      Hitotsubashi Univ.
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-21
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 無相関の誤差項を持つVARモデルのかばん検定統計量の改良2010

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会 連合大会(日本統計学会 2010年度第78回大会)
    • Place of Presentation
      早稲田大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-06
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 無相関の誤差項を持つVARモデルのかばん検定統計量の改良2010

    • Author(s)
      片山直也
    • Organizer
      日本統計学会
    • Place of Presentation
      早稲田大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-06
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Modeling Explosive Autoregressive Time Series Under Weak Dependence2010

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Organizer
      関西計量経済学研究会2009年度研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-01-09
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] On Multiple Portmanteau Tests2009

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Katayama
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Econometrics and the World Economy
    • Place of Presentation
      福岡大学
    • Year and Date
      2009-03-23
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Book] かばん検定の新展開, 広島経済大学研究双書 第39冊 「金融時系列分析の理論と応用」2012

    • Author(s)
      前川功一,得津康義 編著
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 「かばん検定の新展開」in「金融時系列分析の理論と応用」(前川功一,得津康義編著)2012

    • Author(s)
      片山直也
    • Publisher
      広島経済大学研究双書第39冊
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 実例とEXCELによる統計学トレーニング2009

    • Author(s)
      片山直也
    • Total Pages
      256
    • Publisher
      牧野書店
    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www2.ipcku.kansai-u.ac.jp/~katayama/

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www2.ipcku.kansai-u.ac.jp/~katayama/index.html

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://hyoka.ofc.kyushu-u.ac.jp/search/details/K003132/research.html

    • Related Report
      2009 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2009-04-01   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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