| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Research Abstract |
The purpose of this study is to reveal properties of people’s expectations, which form the basis of Economics, using a direct questionnaire survey on stock price forecasts. More than 8,000 forecasts on Nikkei 225 Stock Price Index show that people tend to have pessimisticbeliefs when the Index goes up but optimistic beliefs when it goes down. In addition, it finds that people tend to have overconfident belief irrelevant with the movement of the Index.These results imply that people have a status quo bias when they forecast future stock prices
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