| Project/Area Number |
21H00695
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥9,750,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,250,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
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| Keywords | Evolution / Misspecification / Equilibrium / Rationality / Cycles / Learning / Misspecifcation |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
It has been noted that "all models are wrong, but some are useful". This project will analyze how people should and do make decisions in such "misspecified" environments. Particular attention will be given to the evolution of behavior and to strategic considerations.
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The research on decision-making in misspecified environments has advanced our understanding of economic dynamics under uncertainty. It produced publications including "Stochastic Dynamics and Edmonds' Algorithm" which investigates cyclic decompositions in economic dynamics, and "Deep and Shallow Thinking in the Long Run," co-authored with Heinrich Nax in Zurich, which examines long-term effects of k-level strategic reasoning. Another work, "Rational beliefs when the truth is not an option," co-authored with Filippo Massari in Bologna, critiques established models of equilibrium in misspecified environments, proposing a new goal function that optimizes both log-likelihood and payoffs. This suggests a fundamental reevaluation of economic rationality in uncertain scenarios, challenging existing orthodoxies and pushing forward new theoretical frameworks.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
この研究は誤指定環境における意思決定の新しい理論的枠組みを提供し、経済モデルの適用範囲を広げました。戦略的推論や均衡概念の再評価を通じて、不確実性下での経済行動のより良い理解に貢献。
また、新たな目標関数の提案は、実務的な意思決定支援ツールとしても応用可能で、経済学のみならず社会科学全般に影響を与える可能性があります。
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