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Development of local-scale ashfall prediction method in urban districts by merging observations and building-resolving CFD model

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21H01591
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Takemi Tetsuya  京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (10314361)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 中山 浩成  国立研究開発法人日本原子力研究開発機構, 原子力科学研究部門 原子力科学研究所 原子力基礎工学研究センター, 研究主幹 (50535903)
Project Period (FY) 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,810,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥8,320,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,920,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Keywords大気拡散 / 降灰 / 都市気象 / LES / 予測 / 火山防災 / 火山灰 / 都市災害
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究では、観測データと高解像度数値シミュレーション技術を融合し、火山噴火に伴う火山灰の拡散および降灰を市街地内の局所規模で予測する解析手法を確立することを目的とする。気象観測データ、火山灰データを入力条件とし、市街地の建物を解像する気流・拡散モデルに観測データを同化し、気流や拡散場の再現精度を向上させる。降灰の局所的な集中化や風速強化による降灰域の拡大といった空間不均一な降灰パターンを表現可能とするモデル開発をする。市街地のみならず原子力発電施設への降灰予測に適用し、火山防災・原子力防災に資する局所降灰予測手法を確立する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In order to predict local-scale dispersion and deposition of volcanic ash from eruptions, this study developed a numerical model enabling to predict complex natures of airflows and dispersion fields that are affected by the arrangement and height of buildings in urban districts through assimilating observational data to a building-resolving large-eddy simulation (LES) model. Numerical simulations of local-scale airflows and dispersion fields for evaluating volcanic ash transport from the Sakurajima Volcano were conducted with the use of the building-resolving airflow/dispersion LES model incorporating real urban building data. This study enables to reproduce complex spatiotemporal variations of turbulent airflows affected by urban structures by using a building-resolving LES model and establishes an approach of local-scale volcanic ash deposition by merging observational data assimilation and building-resolving high-resolution numerical modeling.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

これまでの降灰予測は、5 kmメッシュの気象予測データに基づく移流・拡散計算によるものであるが、この解像度では、市町村スケールで降灰の有無の判別は可能であるものの、ある特定の市街地においてどの街区で降灰が多いのか少ないのかといった微細規模の情報を得ることは不可能である。本研究では、街区規模にまでダウンスケールする予測手法を提案したことから、日々の暮らしの基盤である生活空間レベルでのリスク情報を提供するものとして、学術的かつ社会的な意義を有する。さらに、原子力発電所建屋への火山灰取り込みを想定し、建屋スケールでの降灰予測にも適用可能であることから、原子力防災への貢献という社会的意義も有する。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (35 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Peer Reviewed: 15 results,  Open Access: 9 results) Presentation (18 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results,  Invited: 4 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] 大連海事大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Measuring pollutant exposure using large-eddy simulation and virtual walkers: Analysis of tracer age statistics of idealised urban boundary-layer flows2023

    • Author(s)
      Duan G.、Takemi T.、Ngan K.
    • Journal Title

      Sustainable Cities and Society

      Volume: 93 Pages: 104501-104501

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.scs.2023.104501

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report 2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of pollutant exposure using virtual walkers and large-eddy simulation: Application to an idealised urban neighbourhood2023

    • Author(s)
      Duan G.、Takemi T.、Ngan K.
    • Journal Title

      Science of The Total Environment

      Volume: 877 Pages: 162640-162640

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162640

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report 2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] An analytical representation of raindrop size distribution in a mixed convective and stratiform precipitating system as revealed by field observations2023

    • Author(s)
      Okazaki Megumi, Oishi Satoru, Awata Yasuhiro, Yanase Tomoro, Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: 24 Issue: 6

    • DOI

      10.1002/asl.1155

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Characteristics of Nepartak (2021), a subtropical cyclone controlled by an upper‐tropospheric cutoff low2023

    • Author(s)
      Irie Kenta、Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: 24 Issue: 10

    • DOI

      10.1002/asl.1177

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Characteristics of the Environmental Conditions for the Occurrence of Recent Extreme Rainfall Events in Northern Kyushu, Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Naka Nanami、Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 19A Issue: Special_Edition Pages: 9-16

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.19A-002

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Large‐eddy simulation of plume dispersion in a turbulent boundary layer flow generated by a dynamically controlled recycling method2023

    • Author(s)
      Nakayama Hiromasa、Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: 25 Issue: 4

    • DOI

      10.1002/asl.1204

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impacts of urban morphometric indices on ventilation2023

    • Author(s)
      Duan G.、Nakamae K.、Takemi T.
    • Journal Title

      Building and Environment

      Volume: 229 Pages: 109907-109907

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109907

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Impacts of Mountain Topography and Background Flow Conditions on the Predictability of Thermally Induced Thunderstorms and the Associated Error Growth2023

    • Author(s)
      Wu Pin-Ying、Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

      Volume: 80 Issue: 4 Pages: 1177-1199

    • DOI

      10.1175/jas-d-21-0331.1

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Large-Scale Turbulence Structures in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observed above the Suburbs of Kyoto City, Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Horiguchi Mitsuaki、Tatsumi Kenichi、Poulidis Alexandros-Panagiotis、Yoshida Toshiya、Takemi Tetsuya
    • Journal Title

      Boundary-Layer Meteorology

      Volume: 184 Issue: 2 Pages: 333-354

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10546-022-00707-8

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Estimation and Verification of Maximum Response Acceleration Based on Spectral Modal Analysis of a High-rise Building Using WRF Simulation Data2022

    • Author(s)
      TAKADATE Yuki、TAKEMI Tetsuya、OKUDA Yasuo
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Wind Engineering

      Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Pages: 27-38

    • DOI

      10.5359/jwe.47.27

    • ISSN
      1349-340X, 1349-3507
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Long-term ash dispersal dataset of the Sakurajima Taisho eruption for ashfall disaster countermeasure2022

    • Author(s)
      Rahadianto Haris、Tatano Hirokazu、Iguchi Masato、Tanaka Hiroshi L.、Takemi Tetsuya、Roy Sudip
    • Journal Title

      Earth System Science Data

      Volume: 14 Issue: 12 Pages: 5309-5332

    • DOI

      10.5194/essd-14-5309-2022

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Large-Eddy Simulation of Plume Dispersion in the Central District of Oklahoma City by Coupling with a Mesoscale Meteorological Simulation Model and Observation2021

    • Author(s)
      Nakayama Hiromasa、Takemi Tetsuya、Yoshida Toshiya
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere

      Volume: 12 Issue: 7 Pages: 889-889

    • DOI

      10.3390/atmos12070889

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Impact of Topography on the Initial Error Growth Associated with Moist Convection2021

    • Author(s)
      Wu, P., and T. Takemi
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 17 Issue: 0 Pages: 134-139

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2021-024

    • NAID

      130008070033

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Atmospheric vertical velocity - a crucial component in understanding proximal deposition of volcanic ash2021

    • Author(s)
      Poulidis, A.-P., S. Biass, G. Bagheri, T. Takemi, and M. Iguchi
    • Journal Title

      Earth and Planetary Science Letters

      Volume: 566 Pages: 116980-116980

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.epsl.2021.116980

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] High?Resolution Modeling of Airflows and Particle Deposition over Complex Terrain at Sakurajima Volcano2021

    • Author(s)
      Takemi Tetsuya、Poulidis Alexandros P.、Iguchi Masato
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere

      Volume: 12 Issue: 3 Pages: 325-325

    • DOI

      10.3390/atmos12030325

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Hybrid modeling of mesoscale and large-eddy simulations to assess the impacts of extreme weather at urban scales2024

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      The First KU-NCU Joint Workshop on Mesoscale Modeling and Predictability, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan, 12-13 March 2024
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Application of building-resolving large-eddy simulation for the quantification of wind hazards in urban districts under climate change2023

    • Author(s)
      竹見哲也,Guangdong Duan
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2023年大会,千葉市幕張メッセおよびオンライン(現地開催+オンライン開催),2023年5月21日~26日
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Extreme weather impacts on airflows and air quality at urban scales2023

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      The 3rd Universitat Hamburg-Kyoto University Symposium “Approaching planetary boundaries and jeopardizing planetary health, a multi-disciplinary approach to a sustainable future"
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 地表面粗度の大きな領域へと移動する竜巻を模した数値実験2023

    • Author(s)
      佐藤宏樹,竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本流体力学会年会2023,東京都小金井市 東京農工大学小金井キャンパス,2023年9月20日~22日
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 建物配置が熱輸送に与える影響の推定2023

    • Author(s)
      丹治星河,竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2023年度秋季大会,仙台国際センター,宮城県仙台市,2023年10月23日~26日
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Using a dynamical downscaling approach to assess the impacts of climate change on extreme winds at local scales2023

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      2023 TCCIP International Workshop on Climate Change "Enhancing Climate Projection and Impact Analysis for Risk-Informed Decision-Making"
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Dynamical downscaling from meteorological scales to urban scales for quantitative assessment of extreme wind hazards at local scales2023

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      The 4th International Conference on Meteorology and Climate Science 2023 (ICMCS 2023). Department of Meteorology, University of Dhaka, (Online), 9-10 December 2023
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Impacts of building arrangements on turbulent flows and heat transfer in urban surface boundary layers2023

    • Author(s)
      Seika Tanji, Tetsuya Takemi, Guangdong Duan
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting 2023, San Francisco, CA, USA and Everwhere, 11-15 December 2023
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 非対称に粗度ブロックを配置した竜巻状渦数値流体実験2022

    • Author(s)
      佐藤宏樹,竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 底面に粗度ブロックを配置した竜巻状渦数値流体実験2022

    • Author(s)
      佐藤宏樹,竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本風工学会2022年度年次研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Bimodal raindrop size distributions from observational analysis with a new formula2022

    • Author(s)
      Megumi Okazaki, Tetsuya Takemi, Yasuhiro Awata, Tomoro Yanase, Satoru Oishi
    • Organizer
      AOGS 19th Annual Meeting (AOGS2022) Virtual Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 都市にひそむ風災害リスクと都市環境変動の影響2022

    • Author(s)
      竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本建築学会環境工学委員会空気環境運営委員会・第31回空気シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 竜巻状渦の構造に及ぼす地表面粗度の配置及び高さの影響2022

    • Author(s)
      佐藤宏樹,竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本流体力学会年会2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] ふた山形状の雨滴粒径分布の観測事例解析2022

    • Author(s)
      岡崎 恵,竹見哲也,大石 哲,阿波田康裕
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Combining mesoscale meteorological simulation and building-resolving large-eddy simulation to assess the impacts of global warming on wind hazard in urban districts2022

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi, Guangdong Duan, Kumi Nakamae
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting 2022, Chicago, IL, USA and Everwhere
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimating urban surface roughness aerodynamic parameters using random forest2021

    • Author(s)
      Guangdong Duan, Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      AOGS 18th Annual Meeting (AOGS2021) Virtual Conference, 1-6 August 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Benefits of high-resolution downscaling experiments for assessing strong wind hazard at local scales in complex terrain2021

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Organizer
      AOGS 18th Annual Meeting (AOGS2021) Virtual Conference, 1-6 August 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 東アジアの乾燥地域における対流混合層の発達とダストイベント発達との関連2021

    • Author(s)
      中前久美,竹見哲也
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Analysis and Predictability of Mesoscale Precipitating Systems in Moist Environments. pp. 331-364. In: Park, S.K. (eds) Numerical Weather Prediction: East Asian Perspectives. Springer Atmospheric Sciences2023

    • Author(s)
      Tetsuya Takemi
    • Total Pages
      581
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9783031405662
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2021-04-28   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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