| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
The localized severe heavy rainfalls, which has not been experienced in the past, have frequently occurred in Japan due to the effects of climate change. For disaster prevention, this research aims at achieving high-resolution flash flood prediction and securing longer lead time for evacuation
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Guerrilla Heavy Rainfall (GHR), a type of localized heavy rainfall, has caused flash flood disasters in Japan. Predicting the risk of localized heavy rainfall, especially GHR, is crucial for preventing hydro-meteorological disasters and minimizing damage to human life and property. Research in meteorology and hydrology has been conducted to develop methods for accurately predicting and alerting flash floods. Meteorologically, the quantitative risk prediction method was developed for predicting the risk triggered by GHR based on the physical mechanism. By multiple Doppler radar analysis, the variables were estimated. Then, the correlation between the predicted risk level and the variables was founded on the multilinear regression. Hydrologically, flash flood guidance (FFG) was considered to determine the criteria for whether flash floods occur. FFG is the amount of precipitation needed in a specific period to initiate flooding in the watershed. FFG was estimated based on Threshold Runoff (TR) and Soil moisture Deficit (SD) using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). By using topographic and meteorological data, the FFG was estimated on the mixed land use consisting of the rural and urban areas. So, once the FFG has been established, the FFG can issue flash flood warnings without running the entire hydro-meteorological process in the region where flash floods frequently occur. To prevent flash floods, flash flood alerts should be taking into account both the quantitative risk prediction (meteorology) and flash flood warnings (hydrology).
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