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The Impact of the Robotic Revolution and AI on the Labor Market: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21K01525
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
Research InstitutionTokyo Metropolitan University

Principal Investigator

Miyamoto Hiroaki  東京都立大学, 経営学研究科, 教授 (10348831)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 工藤 教孝  名古屋大学, 経済学研究科, 教授 (80334598)
Project Period (FY) 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Keywordsマクロ経済学 / 労働経済学 / 技術進歩 / ロボット・AI / 失業 / 賃金 / サーチ理論 / 動的一般均衡モデル / 技術革新 / 労働市場 / ロボット・人工知能技術
Outline of Research at the Start

AI技術やロボットの発展により、新技術が人々から仕事を奪うのではないかという問いが欧米を中心に学術界のみならず政策当局においても活発に議論がなされている。本研究では失業を考慮したマクロ経済モデル(動学的一般均衡モデル)によりAI技術やロボットが雇用、賃金に与える影響を理論的、数量的に明らかにする。また、技術革新が経済に与えうるマイナスの影響を経済政策・制度がどのように緩和できるかを分析する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Amid the advancement of technology, mainly through AI and automation by robots, its impact on the labor market is gaining significant attention. This study theoretically and quantitatively analyzed the effects of technological progress on employment and wages using a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model with labor market frictions. The findings were presented at seminars and submitted to peer-reviewed international academic journals. Additionally, during this research, supplementary studies on search and matching theory, which is a standard framework for analyzing labor market frictions, were conducted. The results of these supplementary studies have also been published in peer-reviewed international academic journals.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

急速に進歩するAI技術やロボットの自動化は、人々の作業を軽減または置換しつつあり、こうした中、技術進歩が労働市場に与える影響が学術界や政策当局から注目されている。本研究は、ロボットの自動化やAI技術が雇用と賃金に与える影響を分析した。従来の研究は「完全競争理論」に基づいていたため、失業の影響を明示的に扱えなかったが、本研究は労働市場の摩擦を理論モデルに導入することで、技術革新が失業に与える影響を分析可能にした。技術革新のプラスの影響を享受しつつ、マイナスの影響を軽減することは政策当局にとって重要であり、本研究の結果は経済政策の検討に有益な示唆を提供している。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (27 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 9 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Invited: 5 results) Book (4 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] International Monetary Fund(米国)

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] National Tsing Hua University (台湾)(その他の国・地域)

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Aging and Inflation ? Regional evidence from Japan and the US2024

    • Author(s)
      Lee Jaewoo、Lee Jungjin、Miyamoto Hiroaki
    • Journal Title

      Economics Letters

      Volume: 235 Pages: 111569-111569

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111569

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Government Debt and Monetary Policy Perspectives in Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Miyamoto Hiroaki
    • Journal Title

      The Economists’ Voice

      Volume: 20 Issue: 1 Pages: 131-134

    • DOI

      10.1515/ev-2023-0023

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Time aggregation and unemployment volatility2023

    • Author(s)
      Noritaka Kudoh、Hiroaki Miyamoto
    • Journal Title

      Economics Bulletin

      Volume: 43 Pages: 968-977

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Public investment and labor market flexibility2023

    • Author(s)
      Chun-Hung Kuo、Hiroaki Miyamoto
    • Journal Title

      Economics Bulletin

      Volume: 43 Pages: 1122-1132

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Do general equilibrium effects matter for labor market dynamics?2023

    • Author(s)
      Kudoh Noritaka、Miyamoto Hiroaki
    • Journal Title

      Economic Modelling

      Volume: 119 Pages: 106108-106108

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106108

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A NOTE ON POPULATION AGING AND EFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY2022

    • Author(s)
      Miyamoto Hiroaki、Yoshino Naoyuki
    • Journal Title

      Macroeconomic Dynamics

      Volume: 26 Issue: 6 Pages: 1679-1689

    • DOI

      10.1017/s1365100520000607

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Countercyclical fiscal policy and gender employment: evidence from the G-7 countries2022

    • Author(s)
      Akitoby Bernardin、Honda Jiro、Miyamoto Hiroaki
    • Journal Title

      IZA Journal of Labor Policy

      Volume: 12 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.2478/izajolp-2022-0005

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] How does population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus over the business cycle?2021

    • Author(s)
      Honda Jiro、Miyamoto Hiroaki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Macroeconomics

      Volume: 68 Pages: 103288-103288

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103288

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Mitigating Long-term Unemployment in Europe2021

    • Author(s)
      Miyamoto Hiroaki、Suphaphiphat Nujin
    • Journal Title

      IZA Journal of Labor Policy

      Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-27

    • DOI

      10.2478/izajolp-2021-0003

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Effects of a banking crisis on credit growth in developing countries2021

    • Author(s)
      Raksmey Uch, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Makoto Kakinaka
    • Journal Title

      Finance Research Letters

      Volume: forthcoming Pages: 102004-102004

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.frl.2021.102004

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Recessions and Employment Policies in the United States2021

    • Author(s)
      宮本 弘曉
    • Journal Title

      社会保障研究

      Volume: 6 Issue: 2 Pages: 114-129

    • DOI

      10.50870/00000228

    • NAID

      120007151313

    • ISSN
      0387-3064
    • URL

      https://ipss.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/252

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 米国の所得格差と経済政策2021

    • Author(s)
      宮本 弘曉
    • Journal Title

      国際問題

      Volume: 703 Pages: 5-14

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Aging Economies2021

    • Author(s)
      Miyamoto Hiroaki、Yoshino Naoyuki
    • Journal Title

      Public Policy Review

      Volume: 17 Pages: 1-18

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Reconsideration of the “Domar condition” to check sustainability of budget deficit2021

    • Author(s)
      Yoshino Naoyuki、Miyamoto Hiroaki
    • Journal Title

      Public Policy Review

      Volume: 17 Pages: 1-12

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Fiscal policy in post-pandemic2023

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      JEPA2023 The 22nd International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 米国の所得格差と経済政策2021

    • Author(s)
      宮本弘暁
    • Organizer
      『国際問題』ウェビナー
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Robots and Unemployment2021

    • Author(s)
      宮本弘暁
    • Organizer
      関西労働研究会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Robots and Unemployment2021

    • Author(s)
      宮本弘暁
    • Organizer
      東京労働経済学研究会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Robots and Unemployment2021

    • Author(s)
      宮本弘暁
    • Organizer
      経済学セミナー・東京都立大学
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] 一人負けニッポンの勝機 世界インフレと日本の未来2023

    • Author(s)
      宮本 弘曉
    • Total Pages
      240
    • Publisher
      ウェッジ
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 日本の財政政策効果 高齢化・労働市場・ジェンダー平等2023

    • Author(s)
      宮本 弘曉
    • Total Pages
      224
    • Publisher
      日本経済新聞出版
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 51のデータが明かす日本経済の構造2022

    • Author(s)
      宮本 弘曉
    • Total Pages
      208
    • Publisher
      PHP研究所
    • ISBN
      4569853242
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 101のデータで読む日本の未来2022

    • Author(s)
      宮本 弘曉
    • Total Pages
      320
    • Publisher
      PHP研究所
    • ISBN
      4569851126
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 個人ホームページ

    • URL

      https://sites.google.com/site/hiroswebsite/jpn

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 個人ホームページ

    • URL

      https://sites.google.com/site/hiroswebsite/research-1

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report 2021 Research-status Report

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Published: 2021-04-28   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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