| Project/Area Number |
21K13294
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
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| Research Institution | Chuo University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2025-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2024)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
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| Keywords | exchange rate / firm exports / resource misallocation / firm-level exports / empirical analysis / causal effect / dataset construction / exchange rate elasticity / exports / firms / distortions |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
Government officials in many developing countries are concerned about the consequences of a currency appreciation on exports. The proposed project aims to revisit the causal effect of exchange rate changes on exports and will further explore whether distortions may alter the impact of trade elasticity of exchange rate. The project will provide insightful policy implications for explaining the interaction between exchange rate and distortions. It will improve our understanding of how to effectively implement exchange rate policy in developing countries.
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The project studies the effect of exchange rate changes on firms’ exports and explores whether this effect is altered when firms face resource misallocation. Using matched firm-level transaction and survey data, along with macro data on exchange rate reform, it finds that exchange rate appreciation has a negative effect on firms’ exports along both the intensive and extensive margins. Moreover, the negative effects differ significantly between firms that face substantial resource misallocation and those that face less.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の結果は、制度的な歪みと為替レート変動に対する貿易の弾力性との関係に関する文献に貢献している。資源の誤配分などに関連する非効率性といった歪みの存在が、輸出業者の為替変動に対する反応を大きく変化させる可能性があることが示されている。これにより、為替政策と国内の構造的条件との相互作用についての理解が深まった。さらに、本研究は発展途上国における為替政策の設計・実施の改善に向けた貴重な示唆を提供している。特に、輸出パフォーマンスを向上させるためには、為替調整だけでは不十分であり、基盤となる歪みを是正するための制度的・構造的改革を併せて実施する必要があることが示唆されている。
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