A Nationwide Health Risk Assessment of PM2.5 Exposure by Examining the Regional Concentrations-Response Relations in a Population-Based Epidemiological Study in Japan
| Project/Area Number |
21K17894
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 63040:Environmental impact assessment-related
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| Research Institution | University of Tsukuba |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2025-03-31
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| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2022)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
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| Keywords | air pollution / particulate matter / mortality / health risk / time series study |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
As the association varies across study locations, regional evidence is crucial to obtain accurate information and thereby better protect the population. This study focuses on such aspects of Japan using nationwide data covering all 47 prefectures with advanced flexible modeling strategies.
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
During the second year of the project (FY2022), we developed analytical methods to estimate the short-term associations between PM2.5 and mortality in Japan. To quantify these associations, we conducted a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, the location-specific risks of PM2.5 were estimated by utilizing a time-series quasi-Poisson model. We applied a distributed lag non-linear model along with a flexible functional form of splines to evaluate the location-specific associations. We controlled various important covariates, including weather variables, day of the week, and seasonal and long-term time trends. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to determine the robustness of our findings. To assess and compare the shapes of the concentration-response (CR) relationship, all local CR functions were formulated using a unified statistical design. In the second stage, we used a random-effect meta-analysis to combine the regional and national overall estimates.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The project is on track with statistical modeling advancements to quantify location-specific health risks. Moreover, data from 2010 to 2016 is being updated to 2019.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
In the project's final year, we will conduct a regional risk assessment based on our FY2022 findings. Local estimations will be mapped to visualize the risks and the efficacy of the current AQG standards will be assessed using the CR functions obtained for each location in Japan. The geographical heterogeneity will be explained based on indicators of local characteristics. In addition, the susceptible population will be identified through stratified analyses.
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Report
(2 results)
Research Products
(12 results)
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[Presentation] Long-term trends in mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to air pollution in 10 Japanese cities between 1977 and 20152022
Author(s)
Hironori Nishikawa, Xerxes Tesoro Seposo, Lina Madaniyazi, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Makiko Yamagami, Satbyul Estella Kim, Akinori Takami, Seiji Sugata, Yasushi Honda, Kayo Ueda, Masahiro Hashizume, Chris Fook Sheng Ng
Organizer
International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE)
Related Report
Int'l Joint Research
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[Presentation] Temporal changes in the short-term association between ambient air pollution and mortality in 10 major cities in Japan from 1977 to 20152021
Author(s)
Hironori Nishikawa, Xerxes Tesoro Seposo, Lina Madaniyazi, Makiko Yamagami, Kayo Ueda, Masahiro Hashizume, Yoonhee Kim, Yasushi Honda, Satbyul Estella Kim, Seiji Sugata, Akinori Takami, Chris Fook Sheng Ng
Organizer
The 62nd Annual Meeting of Japan Society for Atmospheric Environment
Related Report
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