Exploring the pathways to deep decarbonization of transport sector in the post-COVID's new normal
| Project/Area Number |
21K17926
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 64060:Environmental policy and social systems-related
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo (2022-2023)
Hiroshima University (2021) |
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Principal Investigator |
張 潤森 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 准教授 (50785235)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Keywords | post-pandemic / scenario / lifestyle / mobility / implication / transport / model coupling / decarbonization / post-COVID / new normal / integrated methodology |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
The COVID-19 crisis may create both unprecedented opportunities and challenges for the decarbonization of transport sector. This project aims to develop an integrated methodology to couple a transport model with an energy system model for low-carbon transport policymaking in the post-COVID world.
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
To explore the role of the transport sector in achieving carbon carbon-neutral target in the context of a post-pandemic world, we developed a regional transport energy model to project the future energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the transport sector by integrating a transport model and a bottom-up energy system model. We collected transport and energy data from 31 provinces in China and applied this regional transport energy model to China’s 31 provinces. Then, several scenarios were created to analyze transport dynamics with an energy focus when considering the challenges and opportunities arising from the post-pandemic new normal. These scenarios were defined under varying model assumptions of lifestyle changes and mobility transformations to determine the long-term implications of deep transport decarbonization.
The lifestyle and mobility transformations in response to the pandemic with the arrival of the new normal will lead to substantial changes in energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The simulation results suggested a pathway toward the decarbonization of the transport sector through the positive effects of lifestyle changes, such as spending more time working from home and shopping online. It is also expected that the inevitable modal shift from public transport to private travel and the reduction in the use of car-sharing services will increase energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Therefore, the tradeoffs and interactions between different scenarios need to be taken into account when proposing policies for carbon neutral transport development.
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Report
(3 results)
Research Products
(37 results)
