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Real-time prediction of earthquake ground motions using deep learning

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21K18791
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Medium-sized Section 25:Social systems engineering, safety engineering, disaster prevention engineering, and related fields
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Goto Hiroyuki  京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (70452323)

Project Period (FY) 2021-07-09 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥6,370,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,470,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Keywords深層学習 / 地震動 / リアルタイム予測
Outline of Research at the Start

本課題は,地震発生時に各地の揺れ(地震動)をリアルタイム予測する新しい方法論を提案するものである.揺れが到達する前に地震動が予測できれば,様々な形の新しい地震防災技術への応用が期待できる.本研究目的を達成するために,機械学習の一つである深層学習を利用する.まず多数の地震計を一時的に展開して十分な数の地震記録を収集する.続いて,常設の地震観測所で得られた地震記録を入力とし,臨時で設置した地震計の記録を出力とする深層学習モデルを,大量の地震記録に基づいて学習させる.十分に学習の進んだ深層学習モデルを用いれば,時々刻々と記録される揺れから各地の揺れをリアルタイム予測することが実現できる.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research consists of a deep learning model for real-time prediction of ground motions in different regions during an earthquake. The objective is to estimate ground motions from data acquired at seismic stations. Various models were considered based on actual data, but they could not represent the phase characteristics of the ground motions due to insufficient information in the actual data. To compensate for the lack of data, the elastic wave equation was introduced in the framework of PINNs. As a result, the time history data could be reproduced adequately even in the vicinity of the source fault. On the other hand, PINNs lack real-time performance due to computational costs that must be solved.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

データ数の不足を物理法則である波動方程式で補うことによって,深層学習により地震動の予測が可能になる可能性を示したと言える.この結果は震源近傍の地震動を周囲の観測記録から再構成できる可能性も示しているため,例えば2024年能登半島地震のように震源断層直上の地震動の空間分布を適切に表したい場合にも活用できる可能性がある.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All 2023 2022 2021

All Journal Article (9 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 9 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (11 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Source Scaling of Simulated Dynamic Ruptures Using Hierarchical Slip-Weakening Patch Model2023

    • Author(s)
      Goto Hiroyuki
    • Journal Title

      Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

      Volume: 114 Issue: 2 Pages: 690-709

    • DOI

      10.1785/0120230174

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Updating proxy-based site amplification map with in-situ data in Osaka, Japan: A Bayesian scheme based on uncertainty projected mapping2023

    • Author(s)
      Chakraborty Anirban、Goto Hiroyuki、Sawada Sumio
    • Journal Title

      Earthquake Spectra

      Volume: 40 Issue: 1 Pages: 113-142

    • DOI

      10.1177/87552930231207110

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] NATURE OF WASSERSTEIN METRIC ON WAVEFORM SIMILARITY EVALUATION AND EXAMPLE OF APPLICATION TO SEMBLANCE ANALYSIS2023

    • Author(s)
      奈良樹,後藤浩之
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of JSCE

      Volume: 79 Issue: 13 Pages: n/a

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejj.22-13023

    • ISSN
      2436-6021
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] COMPARISONS WITH SITE AMPLIFICATIONS AND S-WAVE IMPEDANCE OF THE UPPERMOST SURFACE LAYER AT SOMA CITY2023

    • Author(s)
      江口拓生,後藤浩之,栗間淳,Anirban Chakraborty
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of JSCE

      Volume: 79 Issue: 13 Pages: n/a

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejj.22-13041

    • ISSN
      2436-6021
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] MODELING METHOD ON CYCLIC SHEAR BEHAVIOR OF SOIL BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DEEP LEARNING AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS2022

    • Author(s)
      ショーバック ジェイコブ英輔、栗間 淳、後藤 浩之、三上 武子、吉田 望、澤田 純男
    • Journal Title

      Intelligence, Informatics and Infrastructure

      Volume: 3 Issue: J2 Pages: 201-208

    • DOI

      10.11532/jsceiii.3.J2_201

    • ISSN
      2435-9262
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Origin of Large, Long‐Period Near‐Fault Ground Velocities During Surface‐Breaking Strike‐Slip Earthquakes2022

    • Author(s)
      Kaneko Yoshihiro、Goto Hiroyuki
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 49 Issue: 10

    • DOI

      10.1029/2022gl098029

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] VISUALIZING SPATIAL PROBABILITY FIELDS REFLECTING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN NEIGHBORING VALUES2022

    • Author(s)
      GOTO Hiroyuki、CHAKRABORTY Anirban
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE))

      Volume: 78 Issue: 4 Pages: I_79-I_86

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejseee.78.4_I_79

    • ISSN
      2185-4653
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Records of Extreme Ground Accelerations during the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake Sequence Contaminated by a Nonlinear, Soil?Structure Interaction2021

    • Author(s)
      Goto Hiroyuki、Kaneko Yoshihiro、Naguit Muriel、Young John
    • Journal Title

      Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

      Volume: 111 Issue: 2 Pages: 704-722

    • DOI

      10.1785/0120200337

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] A STUDY ON THE BUILDING DAMAGE DISTRIBUTION IN TAKATSUKI AND IBARAKI CITY DURING THE 2018 NORTHERN OSAKA EARTHQUAKE CONSIDERING GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS2021

    • Author(s)
      浅野晃太,後藤浩之,奥村与志弘,澤田純男
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE))

      Volume: 77 Issue: 4 Pages: I_638-I_648

    • DOI

      10.2208/jscejseee.77.4_I_638

    • NAID

      130008067157

    • ISSN
      2185-4653
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Fragility Assessment of Slope Stability during the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake2023

    • Author(s)
      Dongliang Huang, Hiroyuki Goto, Chenlin Xiang
    • Organizer
      第16回日本地震工学シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 深層学習と数理モデルの組み合わせによる砂質土の液状化過程における応力-ひずみ時系列の予測手法2023

    • Author(s)
      ショーバックジェイコブ英輔,栗間淳,後藤浩之,澤田純男
    • Organizer
      令和5年度 土木学会全国大会第78回年次学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 土の弾塑性挙動を考慮した半地下構造物に作用する地震時土圧2023

    • Author(s)
      森元康,後藤浩之,栗間淳,澤田純男,五十嵐徹
    • Organizer
      第58回地盤工学研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 要素内で閉じる付加自由度表現を用いた拡張有限要素法による斜面の動的破壊解析2023

    • Author(s)
      齋藤渓太,後藤浩之
    • Organizer
      第26回(2023年度)応用力学シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 深層学習と数理モデルの組み合わせによる土の繰返しせん断特性の表現法2022

    • Author(s)
      ショーバックジェイコブ英輔,栗間淳,後藤浩之,三上武子,吉田望,澤田純男
    • Organizer
      第3回AI・データサイエンスシンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] ワッサースタイン計量を用いた地震波センブランス解析の試み2022

    • Author(s)
      奈良樹,後藤浩之
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 2022年3月16日福島県沖の地震の余震観測に基づく福島県相馬市付近の地盤震動特性の評価2022

    • Author(s)
      江口拓生,後藤浩之,栗間淳,Anirban Chakraborty
    • Organizer
      第42回地震工学研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 地震波形の類似度評価におけるワッサースタイン計量の特性とセンブランス解析への適用2022

    • Author(s)
      奈良樹,後藤浩之
    • Organizer
      第42回地震工学研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] ワッサースタイン計量を用いた類似度評価による地震波センブランス解析の試み2022

    • Author(s)
      奈良樹,後藤浩之
    • Organizer
      令和4年度土木学会全国大会年次学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Deep learning model to predict real-time seismic intensity,2021

    • Author(s)
      Ryota Otake, Jun Kurima, Hiroyuki Goto, Sumio Sawada
    • Organizer
      17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Extremely large asymmetric vertical accelerations (AsVA) during recent earthquakes2021

    • Author(s)
      Hiroyuki Goto, Yoshi Kaneko, John Young, Muriel Naguit
    • Organizer
      17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2021-07-13   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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