• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Quantitative analysis of moentary policy framework under low inflation

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21K20157
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
Research InstitutionHosei University

Principal Investigator

Katagiri Mitsuru  法政大学, 経営学部, 准教授 (80909739)

Project Period (FY) 2021-08-30 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords金融政策 / 株式リスクプレミアム / 資本資産価格モデル / 資産買入政策 / 為替介入 / ベトナム / 為替レート / 日本銀行 / フォワードガイダンス / インフレ率 / 株価
Outline of Research at the Start

低インフレ下での先進国および新興国の金融政策運営について、以下の3つの研究を並行して行うことで、低インフレ下での金融政策手段の効果について多角的な評価を行う。
①非線形DSGEを用いたフォワードガイダンスの効果の測定
②日本銀行によるETF買入の政策効果の定量分析
③ベトナムにおける為替介入とインフレ目標政策導入の効果
金融政策効果の分析では、理論モデルに基づく定量分析がなければ、将来の異なる場面において政策を活用すること想定した政策実験を行えないことから、これらの研究結果は、今後の政策運営を考えていく上で極めて重要なツールとなると考えている。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Our research yielded two main findings. The first is the measurement of the policy effects of the BOJ's ETF purchases. We measured the effects using the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), a standard risk premium model, and found that the BOJ's ETF purchases pushed down the risk premium of Japanese equities and significantly boosted stock price indexes such as the Nikkei Stock Average. The second is the effect of foreign exchange intervention in Vietnam. Although there are many skeptics about the effect of foreign exchange intervention on economic stability, our study estimates a model called the DSGE model using Vietnamese data and shows that foreign exchange intervention in Vietnam has significantly contributed to economic stability in the past.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

日本銀行は、ETF買入政策が株式市場のリスクプレミアムを押し下げに寄与していると主張しているが、中央銀行によるETF買入政策は、日本独自の斬新な金融政策手段であるため国際的な分析も行われておらず、日本銀行の主張に関して、モデルに基づいた学術的な定量分析は未だ行われていなかったため、当研究のもつ学術的・政策的意義は大きいと考えている。また、為替介入が経済安定に寄与するか否かという論争については、未だにIMFなど国際機関における評価も固まらない中で、標準的なDSGEモデルに基づき、為替介入の効果に関する議論に寄与する結果が得られた意義は大きいと考えている。

Report

(3 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All 2022 2021

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Invited: 4 results)

  • [Journal Article] The announcement effects of a change in the Bank of Japan’s ETF purchase program: An event study2022

    • Author(s)
      Katagiri Mitsuru、Shino Junnosuke、Takahashi Koji
    • Journal Title

      Finance Research Letters

      Volume: 50 Pages: 103230-103230

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.frl.2022.103230

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Systematic Foreign Exchange Intervention and Macroeconomic Stability: A Bayesian DSGE Approach2022

    • Author(s)
      Mitsuru Katagiri
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Central Banking

      Volume: forthcoming

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and equity risk premium: a CAPM interpretation2022

    • Author(s)
      Mitsuru Katagiri
    • Organizer
      2022 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and equity risk premium: a CAPM interpretation2022

    • Author(s)
      Mitsuru Katagiri
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and equity risk premium: a CAPM interpretation2022

    • Author(s)
      Junnosuke Shino
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and equity risk premium: a CAPM interpretation2022

    • Author(s)
      Mitsuru Katagiri
    • Organizer
      Waseda Organizational and Financial Economics Seminar
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and equity risk premium: a CAPM interpretation2022

    • Author(s)
      Koji Takahashi
    • Organizer
      the IAAE Anuual Conference 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Systematic Foreign Exchange Intervention and Macroeconomic Stability: A Bayesian DSGE Approach2021

    • Author(s)
      片桐 満
    • Organizer
      慶応義塾大学経済研究所マクロ経済学ワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Systematic Foreign Exchange Intervention and Macroeconomic Stability: A Bayesian DSGE Approach2021

    • Author(s)
      片桐 満
    • Organizer
      PIER-CDOT Seminar
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Systematic Foreign Exchange Intervention and Macroeconomic Stability: A Bayesian DSGE Approach2021

    • Author(s)
      片桐 満
    • Organizer
      CIGS Virtual Macroeconomcis Workshop
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited

URL: 

Published: 2021-10-22   Modified: 2024-01-30  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi