| Project/Area Number |
21KK0022
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| Research Category |
Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (B))
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Medium-sized Section 6:Political science and related fields
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
Kellam Marisa.A 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 准教授 (30711866)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
粕谷 祐子 慶應義塾大学, 法学部(三田), 教授 (50383972)
渡辺 綾 独立行政法人日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所, 地域研究センター動向分析研究グループ, 研究員 (30880455)
稲田 奏 早稲田大学, 高等研究所, 講師(任期付) (10822207)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2021-10-07 – 2026-03-31
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| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥17,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2025: ¥260,000 (Direct Cost: ¥200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥60,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥8,190,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,890,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
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| Keywords | Comparative Politics / Democracy / Democratic Backsliding / Polarization / Political Parties / Protest / Accountability / Clientelism / Populism / Developing Countries / Democratic backsliding / Clientalism |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
いわゆるモリカケ事件、黒川検事長事件、日本学術会議への政府与党による政治介入など多くの局面で民主的規範への挑戦が続いている。これは日本独自の問題ではなく、世界各地で頻発している。ハンガリーやポーランドではポピュリスト政党が台頭し、アメリカではトランプ大統領による民主主義への攻撃が横行し、ミャンマーでは軍事クーデタが市民虐殺に発展し、政権反対派や宗教的少数派に対する弾圧はトルコ、インド、ロシアで常態化し、ジャーナリストや人権活動家に対する攻撃はフィリピン、メキシコ、ベネズエラ、ベラルーシなどで起きている。これら民主主義の後退と呼ばれる現象の原因や条件を明らかにし、民主主義の学術的基盤を構築する。
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
This project aims to understand how democracy evolves over time in different countries around the world, with a particular emphasis on the comparison of democratic change in Latin American countries and East Asian countries. We approach this goal through quantitative data analysis of global patterns as well as through detailed case studies of political institutions and outcomes in specific countries.
Thus far, the project has produced several related publications and conference papers. The PI published an article on the causes of democratic backsliding worldwide in 2023. Co-PI Kasuya published several articles on democratic backsliding in the Philippines, as well as an article on democratic political institutions in Asia. Co-PI Inanta published an article that examines how sponsoring inhuman foreign governments affects political leaders removal from office. Co-PI Watanabe has had an article accepted for publication on legislative deliberations on the Mindanao peace settlement in the Philippines. Also, members of the research team presented working papers at academic conferences in Japan and overseas. As reported previously, in March 2022, the project co-hosted a workshop on “Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law in Southeast Asia” at Stanford University, which was organized by and co-chaired by the PI in collaboration with Stanford researchers. Each of the co-PIs presented research in progress at this workshop, which they have since published or are preparing for publication.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The PI completed her sabbatical at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and returned to Waseda University in September 2023. The PI and the co-PIs meet occasionally and continue to conduct individual and collaborative research on this project.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
The project continues with an empirical analysis of how opposition parties and civil society respond to democratic backsliding and how executives, especially those who have engaged in executive aggrandizement, are removed from office in Latin America and Asia. Based on previous research, we identify competing expectations about the effect of democratic backsliding on incumbent removal. We find similar competing expectations in the literature on the role of repression in autocratic leader survival. We aim to evaluate these competing expectations in our cross-regional analysis. We examine whether democratic backsliding makes incumbent removal less likely overall, and how it affects the chances of electoral removal in particular. Thus far, our dataset records eight possible removal events: loss of parliamentary confidence, early elections, resignation, impeachment, coup, retirement, term-limits, or election loss. We are exploring various statistical models to analyze these competing events.
In addition to this collaborative paper, the members of the research term continue to work on individual projects that are related to the theme of democratic regress, resilience and renewal in Latin America and Asia.
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