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Research on the GARCH generation mechanism with experiment, artificial market and simulation.

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22330097
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Public finance/Monetary economics
Research InstitutionNagasaki University

Principal Investigator

SUSAI Masayuki  長崎大学, 経済学部, 教授 (40206454)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) HIRUMA Fumihiko  早稲田大学, 商学学術院, 教授 (00063793)
TORIUMI Fujio  東京大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (30377775)
Project Period (FY) 2010-04-01 – 2014-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,870,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
KeywordsGARCH効果 / 実験 / 人工市場 / 行動ファイナンス / GARCH / 外国為替市場 / 市場の効率性 / 人口市場 / 実験市場 / アノマリー / 市場構造 / マイクロストラクチャー / 高頻度データ / ACDモデル
Research Abstract

As we know, GARCH effect is typical phenomenon in financial markets. But we do not confirm the factors that induce GACRH effect. Thus, we started to search the factors for generating GARCH effect with focusing on dealers' behavioral feature and information structure in the market.
On the basis of empirical results, we construct artificial market with the agents who have the information on the asset price that they trade and high information analyze ability. When we control the number of highly informed and high analytical ability agents in the market, we find that GARCH effect is becoming strong as the number of thees agents increases. From this result, we confirm that market structure that means the proportion of highly informed and high analytical agents is a source of GARCH effect.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Annual Research Report
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (53 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Other

All Journal Article (28 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 22 results) Presentation (23 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Algorithm Trading in Asian Currency FX Markets, " In : Greg N. Gregoriou and David Lee(ed.)2014

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai and Yushi Yoshida
    • Journal Title

      The Handbook of Asian Finance, Elsevier

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Algorithm Trading in Asian Currency FX Markets2014

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai, Yushi Yoshida
    • Journal Title

      The Handbook of Asian Finance

      Volume: 1

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Credit Information Institute and the Efficiency of Credit Market2013

    • Author(s)
      Fumihiko Hiruma and Masayuki Susai
    • Journal Title

      International Risk Management Conference

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 戦略学習がGARCH効果に及ぼす影響のシミュレーションと分析2013

    • Author(s)
      湯浅辰丸, 鳥海不二夫
    • Journal Title

      電気学会論文誌C

      Volume: Vol. 133 No. 9

    • NAID

      10031193714

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Credit Information Institute and the Efficiency of Credit Market2013

    • Author(s)
      Fumihiko Hiruma, Masayuki Susai
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of International Risk Management Conference

      Volume: 7

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 戦略学習がGARCH効果に及ぼす影響のシミュレーションと分析2013

    • Author(s)
      湯浅辰丸 鳥海不二夫
    • Journal Title

      電気学会論文誌C

      Volume: 133 Pages: 1717-1728

    • NAID

      10031193714

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Empirical Exploration on the Relations among Duration, Volume and Orderflow with Ultra-High Frequency USD JPY rate2012

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai
    • Journal Title

      3rd World Finance Conference

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Empirical Exploration on the Relations among Duration, Volume and Orderflow with Ultra-High Frequency USD JPY rate2012

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai and Yushi Yoshida
    • Journal Title

      3rd World Finance Conference

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Central Bank Interventions and Limit Order Behavior in the Foreign Exchange Market2012

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai and Yushi Yoshida
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Papers 56, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 人工市場を用いた予測市場の予測メカニズムの分析2012

    • Author(s)
      鳥海不二夫, 石井健一郎
    • Journal Title

      人工知能学会論文誌

      Volume: Vol. 27 No. 6 Pages: 346-354

    • NAID

      130001885103

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 板情報による市場相違性の検出2012

    • Author(s)
      鳥海不二夫, 西岡寛兼, 他
    • Journal Title

      人工知能学会論文誌

      Volume: Vol. 27 No. 3 Pages: 143-150

    • NAID

      130001878754

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Empirical Exploration on the Relations among Duration, Volume and2012

    • Author(s)
      須齋 正幸
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of 3rd World Finance Conference

      Volume: なし

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Intra-day interventions, order flow, and the lifetime of limit orders2012

    • Author(s)
      須齋 正幸
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of 20th PBFEA Meeting

      Volume: なし

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Credit Information Institute and the Efficiency of Credit Market2012

    • Author(s)
      晝間 文彦
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of 24th Asian-Pacific Conference on International Accounting Issues

      Volume: なし

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] アンケートによる時間割引率の背景要因に関する研究(続)2012

    • Author(s)
      晝間 文彦
    • Journal Title

      早稲田商学

      Volume: 433 Pages: 1-30

    • NAID

      40019531259

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Consistency of Risk Attitude and other Investment Behavior of Japanese Fund Managers2011

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai and Hirhoshi Moriyasu
    • Journal Title

      Studies on Financial Markets in East Asia

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Empirical Exploration on the Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure with Duration, Volume and Orderflow2011

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 34th Annual Congress of the European Accounting Association

    • NAID

      110009486813

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 衝動買い、時間割引率、神経経済学2011

    • Author(s)
      書間文彦
    • Journal Title

      流通情報

      Volume: 43 Pages: 6-14

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Analyzing Prediction Market Mechanism using Artificial Markets2011

    • Author(s)
      F.Toriumi, K.Ishii
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 50^<th> SICE Annual Conference

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multi Foreign Exchange Rate Relations in Turbulent Market : Lessons from Lehman Shock2011

    • Author(s)
      須齋正幸
    • Journal Title

      Studies on Financial Markets in East Asia

      Pages: 1-18

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Consistency of Risk Attitude and other Investment Behavior of Japanese Fund Managers2011

    • Author(s)
      須齋正幸, 森保洋
    • Journal Title

      Studies on Financial Markets in East Asia

      Pages: 165-180

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 株価時系列データを用いた市場参加者の推定2011

    • Author(s)
      田島裕之, 鳥海不二夫, 石井健一郎
    • Journal Title

      人工知能学会研究会資料

      Volume: SIG-FIN-006 Pages: 16-22

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 人工市場を用いた予測市場の挙動メカニズムの解明2011

    • Author(s)
      鳥海不二夫, 石井健一郎
    • Journal Title

      第17回社会情報システム学シンポジウムプログラム学術講演論文集

      Pages: 161-166

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Empirical Research on the Relations among Duration, Volume and Orderflow with Ultra-High Frequency USD JPY Rate2010

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai
    • Journal Title

      22nd Asian-Pacific Conference on International Accounting Issues

    • NAID

      40020271818

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Market Participant Estimation by Using Artificial Market Advances in Practical Multi-Agent Systems2010

    • Author(s)
      Fujio Toriumi, Kiyoshi Izumi and Hiroki Matsui
    • Journal Title

      Studies in Computational Intelligence

      Volume: Vol. 325/2011 Pages: 201-215

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Empirical Research on the Relations among Duration, Volume and Orderflow with Ultra-High FrequencyUSD JPY Rate2010

    • Author(s)
      須齋正幸
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of 22nd Asian-Pacific Conference on International Accounting Issues

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Empirical Exploration on the Foreign Exchange Market Micro structure with Duration, Volume and Orderflow2010

    • Author(s)
      須齋正幸
    • Journal Title

      経営と経済

    • NAID

      110009486813

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 板情報を用いた金融市場の相転移検出2010

    • Author(s)
      西岡寛兼, 鳥海不二夫, 石井健一郎
    • Journal Title

      第24回人工知能学会全国大会報告論文集

      Volume: 3H1-OS12a-6

    • NAID

      130007425207

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Credit Information Institute and the Efficiency of Credit Market2013

    • Author(s)
      Fumihiko Hiruma and Masayuki Susai
    • Organizer
      International Risk Management Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Copenhagen
    • Year and Date
      2013-06-23
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 戦略学習がGARCH効果に及ぼす影響のシミュレーションと分析2013

    • Author(s)
      湯浅辰丸, 鳥海不二夫
    • Organizer
      電気学会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学
    • Year and Date
      2013-03-22
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Credit Information Institute and the Efficiency of Credit Market2013

    • Author(s)
      Fumihiko Hiruma, Masayuki Susai
    • Organizer
      International Risk Management Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      コペンハーゲンビジネススクール(デンマーク)
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Intra-day interventions, order flow, and the lifetime of limit orders2012

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai and Yushi Yoshida
    • Organizer
      PBFEAM
    • Place of Presentation
      New Jersey
    • Year and Date
      2012-09-08
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Empirical Exploration on the Relations among Duration, Volume and Orderflow with Ultra-High Frequency USD JPY rate2012

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai
    • Organizer
      3rd World Finance Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Rio de Janeiro
    • Year and Date
      2012-07-03
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 人工市場を用いた予測市場の予測メカニズムの分析2012

    • Author(s)
      鳥海不二夫, 石井健一郎
    • Organizer
      人工知能学会
    • Place of Presentation
      山口教育会館
    • Year and Date
      2012-06-12
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 板情報による市場相違性の検出2012

    • Author(s)
      鳥海不二夫, 西岡寛兼, 他
    • Organizer
      人工知能学会
    • Place of Presentation
      山口教育会館
    • Year and Date
      2012-06-12
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analyzing Prediction Market Mechanism using Artificial Markets2011

    • Author(s)
      F.Toriumi, K.Ishii
    • Organizer
      SICE Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-13
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 人工市場を用いたGARCH効果発生メカニズムの検証2011

    • Author(s)
      湯浅辰丸, 鳥海 不二夫, 石井健一郎
    • Organizer
      第25回人工知能学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      岩手県民情報文化センター
    • Year and Date
      2011-06-02
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Empirical Exploration on the Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure with Duration, Volume and Orderflow2011

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai
    • Organizer
      34th Annual Congress of the European Accounting Association
    • Place of Presentation
      Rome, Italy
    • Year and Date
      2011-04-25
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Empirical Research on the Relations among Duration, Volume and Orderflow with Ultra-High Frequency USD JPY Rate2010

    • Author(s)
      須齋正幸
    • Organizer
      22nd Asian-Pacific Conference on International Accounting Issues
    • Place of Presentation
      ゴールドコースト、オーストラリア
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-09
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 準双曲割引と自制問題2010

    • Author(s)
      晝間文彦
    • Organizer
      パーソナル・ファイナンス学会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-10-02
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Empirical Research on the Relations among Duration, Volume and Orderflow with Ultra-High Frequency USD JPY Rate2010

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai
    • Organizer
      22nd Asian-Pacific Conference on International Accounting Issues
    • Place of Presentation
      Australia
    • Year and Date
      2010-07-20
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] アノマリーと金融教育:自覚と自制を中心として2010

    • Author(s)
      晝間文彦
    • Organizer
      生活経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北福祉大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-06-20
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 高度マーケットデータの分析研究2010

    • Author(s)
      須齋正幸
    • Organizer
      人工知能学会
    • Place of Presentation
      ブリックホール(長崎市)
    • Year and Date
      2010-06-11
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Empirical Exploration on the Relations among Duration, Volume and

    • Author(s)
      須齋 正幸
    • Organizer
      3rd World Finance Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Universidade Candido Mendes (Brazil)
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Life-time of Limit Orders in the EBS Foreign Exchange Spot Market May

    • Author(s)
      須齋 正幸
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会
    • Place of Presentation
      北九州大学
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Intra-day interventions, order flow, and the lifetime of limit orders

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai
    • Organizer
      PBFEA Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Rutgers University (USA)
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Credit Information Institute and the Efficiency of Credit Market

    • Author(s)
      Fumihiko Hiruma
    • Organizer
      24th Asian-Pacific Conference on International Accounting Issues
    • Place of Presentation
      Hawaii, USA
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 情報格差がもたらすGARCH効果発生メカニズムの分析

    • Author(s)
      鳥海 不二夫
    • Organizer
      人工知能学会
    • Place of Presentation
      山口県教育会館
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analyzing Influence of Information Gap on Prediction Market Mechanism using Artificial Markets

    • Author(s)
      Fujio Toriumi
    • Organizer
      WCSS2012
    • Place of Presentation
      National Chengchi University (Taiwan)
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 株式市場からの異常注文観測に基づく相転移の検出

    • Author(s)
      鳥海不二夫
    • Organizer
      社会システムと情報技術研究ウィーク
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道(ルスツリゾート)
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 戦略学習がGARCH効果に与える影響の分析

    • Author(s)
      鳥海不二夫
    • Organizer
      社会システムと情報技術研究ウィーク
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道(ルスツリゾート)
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Studies on Financial Markets in East Asia2011

    • Author(s)
      Masayuki Susai and Shigeru Uchida, (eds. , )
    • Total Pages
      180
    • Publisher
      World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] Studies on Financial Markets in East Asia2011

    • Author(s)
      須齋正幸, 内田滋(編著)
    • Total Pages
      180
    • Publisher
      World Scientific
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2010-08-23   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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