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Future estimate of the number of elderly people eligible for Long-termCare Insurance using the principle of multistate life tables and the effect of long-term care service use on progression of care need level.

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22390129
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Public health/Health science
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

KOIKE Soichi  東京大学, 医学部附属病院, 准教授 (50463849)

Project Period (FY) 2010 – 2012
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
Budget Amount *help
¥6,760,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,560,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Keywords介護保険 / 要介護認定 / 要介護度 / 要介護者 / 将来推計
Research Abstract

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of long-term care services on an increase of care need levels and to make a future estimate of the number of people require long-term care. Cox proportionate hazard model was used to determine whether the use of long-term care insurance service is associated with increased care need level. We estimated the number of elderly people who would need long-term care using the principle of multistate life tables. After adjusting for sex, age, and care need level, the hazard ratio for probability of increased care need level among service users was calculated as 0.75. The estimated total number of people in 2012 who would need long-term care was estimated to101.2% to the actual number of people that received it.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2012 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All 2013 2012 2011 Other

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (8 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Long-term care-service usd and increases in care-need level among home-based elderly people in a Japanese urban area2013

    • Author(s)
      Koike S, Furui Y
    • Journal Title

      Health Policy

      Volume: 110 Issue: 1 Pages: 94-100

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.healthpol.2012.12.011

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 要介護度の悪化・改善に影響を及ぼす因子に関する研究2013

    • Author(s)
      小池創一、古井祐司
    • Organizer
      第70回日本公衆衛生学会総会
    • Place of Presentation
      秋田アトリオン(秋田県)
    • Year and Date
      2013-10-21
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Multistate Life Table and a Future Estimate of the Number of Elderly People Eligible for Long-term Care Insurance2013

    • Author(s)
      Koike S, Furui Y
    • Organizer
      Academy Health, Annual Research Meeting 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Baltimore Convention Center, USA
    • Year and Date
      2013-06-24
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Multistate Life Table and a Future Estimate of the Number of Elderly People Eligible for Long-term Care Insurance2013

    • Author(s)
      Soichi Koike and Yuji Fufui
    • Organizer
      Academy Health, Annual Research Meeting 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Baltimore Convention Center, USA
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 多相生命表の原理を用いた要介護高齢者数の将来推計に関する研究2012

    • Author(s)
      小池創一,古井祐司
    • Organizer
      第70回日本公衆衛生学会総会.ミニシンポジウム9健康寿命の延伸に向けて、介護予防10年間の歩みと今後
    • Place of Presentation
      山口県教育会館,山口市
    • Year and Date
      2012-10-26
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Use of Long-term Care Services and Progression of Care-Need Level2012

    • Author(s)
      Koike S, Furui Y
    • Organizer
      Academy Health, Annual Research Meeting 2012.
    • Place of Presentation
      Washington Convention Center, USA
    • Year and Date
      2012-06-21
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Use of Long-term Care Services and Progression of Care-Need Level2012

    • Author(s)
      Soichi Koike and Yuji Fufui
    • Organizer
      Academy Health, Annual Research Meeting 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      Washington Convention Center, USA
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 多相生命表の原理を用いた要介護高齢者数の将来推計に関する研究2012

    • Author(s)
      小池創一、古井祐司
    • Organizer
      第70回日本公衆衛生学会総会. ミニシンポジウム9 健康寿命の延伸に向けて、介護予防10年間の歩みと今後
    • Place of Presentation
      山口県教育会館
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 要介護度の悪化・改善に影響を及ぼす因子に関する研究2011

    • Author(s)
      小池創一、古井祐司
    • Organizer
      日本公衆衛生学会総会
    • Place of Presentation
      秋田アトリオン(秋田県)
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-21
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.m.u-tokyo.ac.jp/medinfo/

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.m.u-tokyo.ac.jp/medinfo/index.html

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2010-08-23   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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