Future estimate of the number of elderly people eligible for Long-termCare Insurance using the principle of multistate life tables and the effect of long-term care service use on progression of care need level.
| Project/Area Number |
22390129
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Public health/Health science
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
KOIKE Soichi 東京大学, 医学部附属病院, 准教授 (50463849)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010 – 2012
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥6,760,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,560,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
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| Keywords | 介護保険 / 要介護認定 / 要介護度 / 要介護者 / 将来推計 |
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| Research Abstract |
The objective of this study was to examine the effects of long-term care services on an increase of care need levels and to make a future estimate of the number of people require long-term care. Cox proportionate hazard model was used to determine whether the use of long-term care insurance service is associated with increased care need level. We estimated the number of elderly people who would need long-term care using the principle of multistate life tables. After adjusting for sex, age, and care need level, the hazard ratio for probability of increased care need level among service users was calculated as 0.75. The estimated total number of people in 2012 who would need long-term care was estimated to101.2% to the actual number of people that received it.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(11 results)
