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One-shot decision theory and its applications to business problems

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22510144
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionYokohama National University

Principal Investigator

GUO PEIJUN  横浜国立大学, 国際社会科学研究院, 教授 (60325313)

Project Period (FY) 2010-04-01 – 2014-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywordsワン・ショット意思決定理論 / フォーカス・ポイント / 多段階ワン・ショット意思理論 / 新聞売り子問題 / 最適停止問題 / 多段階投資・消費問題 / 多段階ワン・ショット意思決定 / 多段階消費と投資問題 / イノベイティブ製品 / 返品制 / 区間回帰分析 / 外れ値 / multistage decision / focus point / dynamic programming / Newsvendor Problem / one-shot decision theory / 可能性度合い / 満足度 / 後悔度 / 保健医療システム / 流通チャンネル / ワン・ショット意思決定フレームワーク / 不動産投資 / 複占市場 / 区間確率 / ラフ集合 / 可能性数理計画問題
Research Abstract

The one-shot decision theory is initially proposed for dealing with one-shot decision problems which are typical for situations where a decision maker has one and only one chance to make a decision with partially known information. The one-shot decision theory is a fundamental alternative for decision making under uncertainty because it is scenario-based instead of lottery-based as in the other existing methods. As an application, a duopoly market of a new product with a short life cycle, a private real estate investment problem and a single-period inventory problem are analyzed. A general approach to multistage one-shot decision making is proposed with the one-shot decision theory. The optimality equation in multistage one-shot decision problems is given. We examine the optimal stopping problem in the possibilistic time-invariant system and an individual multi-period consumption-investment problem.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Annual Research Report
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (55 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

All Journal Article (25 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 23 results) Presentation (23 results) (of which Invited: 1 results) Book (7 results)

  • [Journal Article] Approaches to multistage one-shot decision making2014

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and Y. Li
    • Journal Title

      European Journal of Operational Research

      Volume: 236

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] One-shot decision theory: a fundamental alternative for decision under uncertainty2014

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Journal Title

      “Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences”, P. Guo and W. Pedrycz (eds.), Studies in Computational Intelligence

      Volume: 502 Pages: 33-55

    • DOI

      10.1007/978-3-642-39307-5_2

    • ISBN
      9783642393068, 9783642393075
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Eliciting dual interval probabilities from interval comparison matrices2012

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and Y. Wang
    • Journal Title

      Information Sciences

      Volume: 190 Pages: 17-26

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] One-shot decision theory2011

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Transactions on SMC

      Volume: Part A 41 (5) Pages: 917-926

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Comparative analysis of international healthcare system2011

    • Author(s)
      J. Wang, Y. Yuan and P. Guo
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Business and System Research

      Volume: 5 (1) Pages: 85-103

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Product Distribution and Coordination Strategies in a Multi-Channel Context2011

    • Author(s)
      R. Yan, P. Guo, J. Wang and N. Amrouche
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services

      Volume: 18

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Some properties of focus points in one-shot decision theory2011

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Journal Title

      Yokohama Business Review

      Volume: Vol.32, No.1

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] One-shot decision theory2011

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Transactions on SMC, Part A

      Volume: 41 Pages: 917-926

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Comparative analysis of international healthcare system2011

    • Author(s)
      J.Wang, Y.Yuan, P.Guo
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Business and System Research

      Volume: 5 Pages: 85-103

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Product Distrbution and Coordination Strategies in a Multi-Channel Context2011

    • Author(s)
      R.Yan, P.Guo, J.Wang, N.Amrouche
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services

      Volume: 18 Pages: 19-26

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Some properties of focus points in one-shot decision theory2011

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo
    • Journal Title

      Yokohama Business Review

      Volume: 32 Pages: 171-181

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Duopoly market analysis within one-shot decision framework with asymmetric possibilistic information2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo, R. Yan and J. Wang
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Computational Intelligence System

      Volume: 3 (6) Pages: 786-796

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Private Real Estate Investment Analysis within One-Shot Decision Framework2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Journal Title

      International Real Estate Review

      Volume: 13 (3) Pages: 238-260

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Decision making with interval probabilities2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and H. Tanaka
    • Journal Title

      European Journal of Operational Research

      Volume: 203

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] One-Shot Decision Approach and Its Application to Duopoly Market2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Information and Decision Sciences

      Volume: 2 (3) Pages: 213-232

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Possibilistic Programming Decision Problems with Prior Goal2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control

      Volume: 6 (6) Pages: 2837-2845

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Rough Set Feature Extraction by Remarkable Degrees with Real World Decision-Making Problems2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Journal Title

      Soft Computing

      Volume: 14

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Duopoly market analysis within one-shot decision framework withasymmetric possibilistic information2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo, R.Yan, J.Wang
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Computational Intelligence System

      Volume: 3 Pages: 786-796

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Private Real Estate Investment Analysis within One-Shot Decision Framework2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo
    • Journal Title

      International Real Estate Review

      Volume: 13 Pages: 238-260

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Decision making with interval probabilities2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo, H.Tanaka
    • Journal Title

      European Journal of Operational Research

      Volume: 203 Pages: 444-454

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] One-Shot Decision Approach and Its Application to Duopoly Market2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Information, Decision Sciences

      Volume: 2 Pages: 213-232

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Possibilistic Programming Decision Problems with Prior Goal2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control

      Volume: 6 Pages: 2837-2845

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Rough Set Feature Extraction by Remarkable Degrees with Real World Decision-Making Problems2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo
    • Journal Title

      Soft Computing

      Volume: 14 Pages: 1265-1275

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On interval probabilities2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo, H.Tanaka
    • Journal Title

      Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing

      Volume: 68 Pages: 153-162

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Decision Making under Uncertainty by Possibilistic Linear Programming Problems2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo
    • Journal Title

      Computational Intelligence in Complex DecisionSystems

      Pages: 67-83

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Optimal pricing and returns policies for innovative products with the one-shot decision theory2013

    • Author(s)
      X. Ma and P.Guo
    • Organizer
      IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
    • Place of Presentation
      Bangkok, Thailand
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Channel coordination in the supply chain with the one-shot decision theory2013

    • Author(s)
      X. Ma, C. Wang and P. Guo
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of 2013 Joint IFSA World Congress NAFIPS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Edmonton, Canada(146-150)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Consumption-Investment Problems with the One-Shot Decision Theory2013

    • Author(s)
      Y. Li and P. Guo
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of 2013 Joint IFSA World Congress NAFIPS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Edmonton, Canada(198-202)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Outlier detection approaches in fuzzy regression models2013

    • Author(s)
      C. Wang and P. Guo
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of 2013 Joint IFSA World Congress NAFIPS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Edmonton, Canada(980-985)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] One-shot decision making with regret2013

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Organizer
      Proceeding of the third International Conference on Information and Technology
    • Place of Presentation
      Yangzhou, China(493-495)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Channel coordination in the supply chain with the one-shot decision theory2013

    • Author(s)
      X. Ma, C. Wang and P. Guo
    • Organizer
      IFSA World Congress NAFIPS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Edmonton, Canada
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Consumption-Investment Problems with the One-Shot Decision Theory2013

    • Author(s)
      Y. Li and P. Guo
    • Organizer
      IFSA World Congress NAFIPS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Edmonton, Canada
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Outlier detection approaches in fuzzy regression models2013

    • Author(s)
      C. Wang and P. Guo
    • Organizer
      IFSA World Congress NAFIPS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Edmonton, Canada
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] One-shot decision making with regret2013

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Organizer
      The third International Conference on Information and Technology
    • Place of Presentation
      Yangzhou, China
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] One-shot decision theory-A fundamental alternative for decision under uncertainty, Tutorial lecture2012

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Organizer
      the 10th International FLINS Conference on Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Istanbul, Turkey
    • Year and Date
      2012-08-28
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Multi-Period Decision Making With One-Shot Decision Theory2012

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and Y. Li
    • Organizer
      Proceeding of the 10th International FLINS Conference on Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Istanbul, Turkey
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Newsvendor Problem with One-Shot Decision Theory2012

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and X. Ma
    • Organizer
      Proceeding of the 10th International FLINS Conference on Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Istanbul, Turkey(507-512)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] One-shot decision theory-A fundamental alternative for decision under uncertainty2012

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Organizer
      The 10th International FLINS Conference on Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Istanbul, Turkey
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Multi-Period Decision Making With One-Shot Decision Theory2012

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and Y. Li
    • Organizer
      The 10th International FLINS Conference on Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Istanbul, Turkey
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Newsvendor Problem with One-Shot Decision Theory2012

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and X. Ma
    • Organizer
      The 10th International FLINS Conference on Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making
    • Place of Presentation
      Istanbul, Turkey
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Multistage decision making based on one-shot decision theory2011

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and Y. Li
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of the 6rd International Conference on Intelligent System and Knowledge Engineering
    • Place of Presentation
      Shanghai, China(vol.2, 159-164)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analyzing newsvendor problems by one-shot decision approaches with considering regret2011

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and Y. Yang
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics
    • Place of Presentation
      Singapore(32-35)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Multistage decision making based on one-shot decision theory2011

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo, Y.Li
    • Organizer
      The 6rd International Conference on Intelligent System and Knowledge Engineering
    • Place of Presentation
      Shanghai, China
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analyzing newsvendor problems by one-shot decision approaches with considering regret2011

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo, Y.Yang
    • Organizer
      IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics
    • Place of Presentation
      Singapore
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Eliciting interval probabilities via interval-valued pair-wise comparison2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and Y. Wang
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of the 5rd International Conference on Intelligent System and Knowledge Engineering
    • Place of Presentation
      Hangzhou, China(102-105)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analyzing a single-period inventory problem with one-shot decision approaches2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, Japan(12-17)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Eliciting Interval Probabilities via interval-valued pair-wise comparison2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo, Y.Wang
    • Organizer
      5rd International Conference on Intelligent System and Knowledge Engineering
    • Place of Presentation
      Hangzhou, China
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analyzing a single-period inventory problem with one-shot decision approaches2010

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo
    • Organizer
      7th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, Japan
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences, Studies in Computational Intelligence 5022014

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and W. Pedrycz (eds.)
    • Publisher
      Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] One-shot decision theory : a fundamental alternative for decision under uncertainty,"Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences", Studies in Computational Intelligence 5022014

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo, (P. Guo and W. Pedrycz (eds.))
    • Publisher
      Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences2014

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and W. Pedrycz (eds.)
    • Total Pages
      418
    • Publisher
      Springer-Verlag
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Human-Centric Decision - Making Models for Social Sciences2013

    • Author(s)
      P.Guo and W. Pedrycz (Eds.)
    • Total Pages
      320
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Possibilistic Decision-making Models for Portfolio Selection Problems, "Handbook on Decision Making", Intelligent Systems Reference Library Vol. 332012

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo, (Jie Lu, Lakhmi Jain and Guangquan Zhang (Eds.))
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] On interval probabilities, in the book series"Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing"Vol.682010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo and H. Tanaka, (V.-N. Huynh, Y. Nakamori, J. Lawry and M. Inuiguchi (Eds.))
    • Publisher
      Springer-Verlag
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] Decision Making under Uncertainty by Possibilistic Linear Programming Problems, in the book of"Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems"2010

    • Author(s)
      P. Guo, (D. Ruan (Ed.))
    • Publisher
      Atlantis Press
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report

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Published: 2010-08-23   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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