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A probabilistic mitigation system by eruptive event-trees, eruption-scenarios and risk assessments, evaluated by volcanic disasters records during past 2,000-year in Japan

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22510187
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Natural disaster science
Research InstitutionUtsunomiya University

Principal Investigator

NAKAMURA Yoichi  宇都宮大学, 教育学部, 教授 (10114167)

Project Period (FY) 2010-04-01 – 2014-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords災害科学 / 火山防災 / 火山災害 / 活火山 / 噴火活動 / 噴火シナリオ / イベントツリー / リスク評価 / 地域防災計画 / 噴火イベントツリー / 災害リスク評価 / ハザードマップ / 自然災害 / 火山噴火
Research Abstract

A database of volcanic hazard maps in Japan was worked out. Current version includes 160 maps and handbooks published for 40 of the 110 active volcanoes. Records dealing with volcanic disasters have been obtained for a total of 1,162 eruptions over the past 2,000 years. There were approximately 20,000 victims and over 80% of the deaths were due to volcanic tsunami, followed by deaths from lahars, including mudflows or debris flows, pyroclastic falls, debris avalanches, and pyroclastic flows. Frequency-distribution analyses for eruptions show the average frequency for each of VEI. The VEI 5 eruptions occur once every 180 years, and VEI 4 occur once every 50 years. VEI 3 and VEI 2 eruptions occur once every18 years and 4 years. We expect local administrative officials to use present probabilistic mitigation system implemented with risk assessments, eruption event-trees and scenarios results to propose robust counter-measure strategies to implement when future volcanic events occur.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Annual Research Report
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (70 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Other

All Journal Article (17 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 12 results) Presentation (31 results) (of which Invited: 2 results) Book (14 results) Remarks (8 results)

  • [Journal Article] National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Tanada, T., Aramaki S.
    • Journal Title

      Volcanic Hazard Maps in Japan, 2nd Edition

      Volume: 380(DVD-ROM Version)

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Technical Note of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Tanada, T., Aramaki S.
    • Journal Title

      Volcanic Hazard Maps in Japan, 2nd Edition

      Volume: 380 Pages: 89-186

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 火山ハザードマップ集第2版2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・棚田俊収・荒牧重雄
    • Journal Title

      防災科学技術研究所研究資料

      Volume: 第380号 Pages: 1-88

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Japan's Volcanic Disaster Mitigation Initiatives : Activities of the Commission on Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Aramaki S., Fujita E.
    • Journal Title

      the Volcanological Society of Japan. Technical Note of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

      Volume: 380

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 日本の火山ハザードマップ集 第2版2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・棚田俊収・荒牧重雄(編著)
    • Journal Title

      防災科学技術研究所研究資料

      Volume: 380 Pages: 1-88

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Volcanic Hazard Maps of Japan, Second Edition2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Tanada, T., Aramaki, S.
    • Journal Title

      Tech.Notes of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

      Volume: 380 Pages: 92-186

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Japan’s Volcanic Disaster Mitigation Initiatives: Activities of the Commission on Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters, the Volcanological Society of Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Aramaki, S., Fujita, E.
    • Journal Title

      Tech.Notes of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

      Volume: 380 Pages: 165-172

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 日本の活火山 磐梯山2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      砂防と治水

      Volume: 206 Pages: 40-41

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 火山ハザードマップ集 第2版 (和英版)2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一(編著)
    • Journal Title

      防災科学技術研究所研究資料

      Volume: 380 Pages: 1-40

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 降下テフラの災害リスク評価と火山防災2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      月刊地球

      Volume: 34 Pages: 33-44

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 日本の活火山磐梯山2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      砂防と治水

      Volume: vol.45.no1 Pages: 40-41

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 日本の活火山 那須岳2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      砂防と治水

      Volume: 204 Pages: 60-61

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 磐梯山2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      砂防と治水

      Volume: 45-1 Pages: 40-41

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 日本の活火山那須岳2011

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      砂防と治水

      Volume: vol.44.no5 Pages: 60-61

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 噴火イベントツリー2010

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      火山災害リスク評価を活用した火山防災.消防科学と情報

      Volume: 102 Pages: 27-32

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 噴火イベントツリー、火山災害リスク評価を活用した火山防災2010

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      消防科学と情報

      Volume: 102 Pages: 27-32

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 那須岳

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Journal Title

      砂防と治水

      Volume: 44-5 Pages: 60-61

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 自主防災組織による火山噴火対策図上防災訓練-那須岳火山地域での実施事例-2014

    • Author(s)
      福嶋民雄・高森秀司・稲葉茂・中村洋一・那須町
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合
    • Place of Presentation
      横浜市
    • Year and Date
      2014-04-30
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山を知り,火山と共に生きる2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・他7名
    • Organizer
      2013火山砂防フォーラム福島,火山砂防フォーラム委員会
    • Place of Presentation
      福島県猪苗代町
    • Year and Date
      2013-11-25
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山ハザードマップ集第2版―新たな火山ハードマップと防災対応に向けて2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・棚田俊収・堀田弥生・荒牧重雄
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      福島県猪苗代町
    • Year and Date
      2013-10-01
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山の活動史と防災,-福島県の活火山と防災―2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一.磐梯・吾妻・安達太良
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会秋季大会火山防災シンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      福島県猪苗代町
    • Year and Date
      2013-09-29
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Space-time Analysis of Volcanic Eruptions and Disasters in Japan for the Past 2,000 Years2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Ito, Y., Tazawa, M.
    • Organizer
      IAVCEI Scientific Assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Kagoshima,(1124 3W_4C-P1)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Japan's Volcanic Disaster Mitigation Initiatives : Work Projects of the Commission on Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters, VSJ and Volcanic Hazard Maps in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Tanada, T., Fujita, E., Hotta, Y., Aramaki, S.
    • Organizer
      2nd Edition. IAVCEI Scientific Assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Kagoshima(4W_4H-P6)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山防災シンポジウム「浅間火山と火山防災」2012

    • Author(s)
      藤田英輔・中村洋一・荒牧重雄(コンビナー)
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会2012年秋季大会公開講座
    • Place of Presentation
      長野県御代田町
    • Year and Date
      2012-10-14
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本の活火山の噴火過去2000年間履歴の時空解析(その2)2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・伊藤悠大郎
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会2012年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      長野県御代田町
    • Year and Date
      2012-10-14
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 次世代の火山防災のあり方を考える2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Organizer
      第144回深田研談話会
    • Place of Presentation
      公益財団法人深田地質研究所
    • Year and Date
      2012-09-28
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本の活火山の噴火過去2000年間履歴の時空解析2012

    • Author(s)
      伊藤悠大郎・中村洋一
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      千葉県幕張
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 男体今井地層および男体七本桜層の噴出年代2011

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・松居誠一郎・布川嘉英
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会2011年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道旭川市
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-02
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山防災シンポジウム「北海道の火山とともに」2011

    • Author(s)
      藤田英輔・中村洋一・荒牧重雄(コンビナー)
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会2011年秋季大会公開講座
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道旭川市
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-01
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山防災シンポジウム-北海道の火山とともに-2011

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・藤田英輔・荒牧重雄
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会,火山防災シンポジウム(コンビナー)
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道旭川市
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-01
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 噴火イベントツリーと火山災害リスク評価を活用した火山防災ハンドブックの作成公表2011

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・鈴木美香
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2011年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      千葉県幕張
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-24
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 霧島山新燃岳噴火の教訓~火山防災への対応について2011

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・藤田英輔・荒牧重雄
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2011年大会(コンビナー)
    • Place of Presentation
      千葉県幕張(招待講演)
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-23
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Disaster Mitigation Systems using Hazard Maps incorporated by Event-Trees, Volcanic Scenarios, and Risk Assessments2011

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y.
    • Organizer
      IUGG XXV
    • Place of Presentation
      General Assembly Melbourne
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-11
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Disaster Mitigation Systems using Hazard Maps incorporated by Event-Trees, Volcanic Scenarios, and Risk Assessments2011

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y.
    • Organizer
      IUGG 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Melbourne, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-05
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 噴火イベントツリーと火山災害リスク評価を活用した火山防災2011

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・鈴木美香
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2011年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      千葉県幕張
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山防災シンポジウム「活火山の監視観測と火山防災の取り組み]2010

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・藤田英輔・荒牧重雄(コンビナー)
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会2010年秋季大会公開講座
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学防災研究所
    • Year and Date
      2010-10-08
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] -活火山の監視観測と火山防災の取り組み-(コンビナー)2010

    • Author(s)
      荒牧重雄・中村洋一・藤田英輔
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会,火山防災シンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学防災研究所
    • Year and Date
      2010-10-08
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Risk Analysis and Assessment of Tephra Disasters at Volcanoes and the Surrounding Areas in Japan2010

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Suzuki, M.
    • Organizer
      International Field Conference and Workshop on Tephrochronology, Volcanism and Human Activity
    • Place of Presentation
      Kirishima
    • Year and Date
      2010-05-14
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Risk Analysis and Assessment of Tephra Disasters at Volcanoes and the Surrounding Areas in Japan.2010

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Suzuki, M.
    • Organizer
      International Field Conference and Workshop on Tephrochronology, Volcanism and Human Activity
    • Place of Presentation
      Kirishima, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2010-05-14
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 自主防災組織による火山噴火対策図上防災訓練-那須岳火山地域での実施事例-

    • Author(s)
      福嶋民雄・高森秀司・稲葉茂・中村洋一・那須町
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2014
    • Place of Presentation
      パシフィコ横浜
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山防災シンポジウム-磐梯・吾妻・安達太良火山の噴火履歴と防災対応-

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会
    • Place of Presentation
      猪苗代町
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior 2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y., Ito, U., Tazawa, M., Suzuki, M.
    • Organizer
      IAVCEI 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Kagoshima, Japan
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Japan’s Volcanic Disaster Mitigation Initiatives: Work Projects of the Commission on Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters, VSJ and Volcanic Hazard Maps in Japan

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura Y., Tanada, T., Fujita, E., Aramaki, S.
    • Organizer
      International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Kagoshima, Japan
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山ハザードマップ集第2版ー新たな火山ハザードマップと火山防災に向けてー

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一・堀田俊収・堀田弥生・荒牧重雄
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会
    • Place of Presentation
      猪苗代町
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本の活火山の噴火過去2000年間履歴の時空解析(その1)

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      千葉市美浜区幕張メッセ
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] ―浅間火山と火山防災―

    • Author(s)
      藤田英輔,中村洋一(コンビナー)
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会2012年秋季大会 火山防災シンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      長野県御代田町 エコールみよた
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本の活火山の噴火過去2000年間履歴の時空解析(その2)

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Organizer
      日本火山学会2012年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      長野県御代田町 エコールみよた
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 次世代の火山防災のあり方を考える

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Organizer
      深田研究談話会
    • Place of Presentation
      公益財団深田地質研究所
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] 次世代の火山防災のあり方を考える, No.144, 公益財団法人深田地質研究所2014

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Total Pages
      79
    • Publisher
      深田研ライブラリー
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 国際火山学地球内部化学に2013年学術総会報告書2014

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Total Pages
      44
    • Publisher
      Database in volcanology–Session 4H
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 次世代の火山防災のあり方を考える2014

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Total Pages
      70
    • Publisher
      公益財団法人深田地質研究所
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 1888年 磐梯山噴火:日本歴史災害事典2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一 (分担)
    • Total Pages
      5
    • Publisher
      吉川弘文館
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 2013火山砂防フォーラム-地域一体で火山噴火に備えるために-2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一(分担)
    • Total Pages
      71
    • Publisher
      火山砂防フォーラム委員会
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 公益財団深田地質研究所2013

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Total Pages
      59
    • Publisher
      次世代の火山防災のあり方を考える
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 1888磐梯山噴火, 日本歴史災害事典2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Publisher
      吉川弘文館
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 栃木県内での地震液状化現象,栃木県北・東部地盤関連災害の実態とメカニズム」, 東日本大震災に係わる災害復興再生に向けた研究成果報告書, 全77頁, 宇都宮大学2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 吉川弘文館2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Total Pages
      5
    • Publisher
      1888磐梯山噴火(明治21年7月15日) 日本歴史災害事典
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 1888磐梯山噴火,災害史に学ぶ「火山編」2012

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Total Pages
      73
    • Publisher
      内閣府 中央防災会議 災害教訓の継承に関する専門調査会
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 1888磐梯山噴火「災害史に学ぶ(火山編)」全75頁, 内閣府(中央防災会議災害教訓の継承に関する専門調査会編)2011

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 1888磐梯山噴火,「災害史に学ぶ(火山編)」全75頁2011

    • Author(s)
      中村洋一
    • Total Pages
      10
    • Publisher
      内閣府(中央防災会議災害教訓の継承に関する専門調査会編)
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Volcanic Hazard Maps and Volcanic Disaster Mitigation. Disaster Risk Management Technology on Volcanic Eruption, Debris Flow and Landslide, Course FY20092010

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y.
    • Publisher
      JICA
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] Volcanic Hazard Maps and Volcanic Disaster Mitigation.2010

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, Y
    • Total Pages
      12
    • Publisher
      Disaster Risk Management Technology on Volcanic Eruption, Debris Flow and Landslide Course FY2009.JICA
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://vivaweb2.bosai.go.jp/v-hazard/

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks] 火山ハザードマップデータベース.和英版 防災科学技術研究所HP.日本火山学会火山 防災委員会・防災科学技術研究所編纂

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks] 日本列島ハザードマップ,全120頁,火山, 35-39(資料提供),朝日新聞社

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks] 火山ハザードマップデータベース

    • URL

      http://vivaweb2.bosai.go.jp/v-hazard/

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 火山ハザードマップデータベース 防災科学技術研究所

    • URL

      http://dil-opac.bosai.go.jp/documents/v-hazard/

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 「火山列島 災害大国迫る危機」 朝日新聞デジタル

    • URL

      http://www.asahi.com/shinsai_fukkou/#ListBousai

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.bosai.go.jp/library/v-hazard/

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://www.bosai.go.jp/library/v-hazard/

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2010-08-23   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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