Stochastic forecast of pension finance in Japan
| Project/Area Number |
22530264
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
OKITA Yoichi 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 名誉教授 (70303089)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
WADE D. Pfau 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (00377128)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010 – 2012
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | 社会保障 / 年金財政 / 人口予測 / 年金資産の運用 / 新興国の高齢化 / 人口の確率的予測 / 税と社会保障の一体改革 / 私的年金 / 平成21年財政検証 / 年金数理計算 / ARIMA / コーホート要因法 / 出生率 / 死亡率 / 年金改革 / マクロ経済スライド / 高齢者の貯蓄取り崩し |
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| Research Abstract |
At first, this research aimed at calculating confidence intervals for financial forecast of public pension schemes in Japan, using stochastic forecast of population in the future obtained in Okita, Pfau and Long (2011). However, due to the expected change of systems under the “Tax and Social Security Reform” including consumption tax rate raise, it became difficult to lay down solid assumptions for the calculation. Thus, we modified our topic within the theme to include stochastic analyses of pension finance. These are the studies of optimal international diversification of investment portfolios in pension schemes of emerging economies. We further studied cash transfer program for school attendance program as an alternative for poverty reduction through welfare programs for elderly.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(22 results)
