| Project/Area Number |
22560512
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
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| Research Institution | Kobe University |
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Principal Investigator |
OISHI Satoru 神戸大学, 自然科学系先端融合研究環都市安全研究センター, 教授 (30252521)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
SUNADA Kengo 山梨大学, 医学工学総合研究部, 教授 (20020480)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010 – 2012
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Keywords | レーダー / 雨水貯留制御 / 早期予測 / 減災 / 洪水制御 / アンサンブル気象予報 / 貯留施設制御 / 事前放流 / 短時間降雨予測 / 流出モデル / 一般化最尤不確定推定法 / 偏波レーダー / 予測不確実性 / アンサンブル短時間降雨予測 / 氾濫 / リスク解析 / 被害解析 / 降雨粒径分布 / 分布型流出モデル / アンサンブル短時間隆雨予測 |
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| Research Abstract |
In the present study, we developed methods, algorithms and computer systems which reduce floods in urban area by optimizing the releasing discharge from smaller reservoir. Specifically, we developed hydrological simulators based on distributed hydrological model in which rainfall information from radar with some extent of error which was quantitatively utilized for giving probabilistic flood forecasting. Then, an optimized method was applied for flood control using reservoir with stochastic flood forecast. First, a probabilistic method for short term rainfall forecast was achieved by using radar echo extrapolation method with singular vector for making probabilistic ensembles. Then, a hydrological model which also deals with probabilistic spread based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Second, an optimized control algorithm using Dynamic Programming has been applied for flood control by using reservoir. In the present study, we use Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) for dealing with weekly ensemble weather forecasting issued from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). In the SDP, objective function was minimizing the water level at a point in lower river basin. The result of the SDP with weekly ensemble weather forecasting made water level reduced and the objectives of the present study has been achieved.
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