Improving earthquake prediction algorithms based on earthquake clustering models

• Project/Area Number: 22700299
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: ZHUANG Jiancang 統計数理研究所, モデリング研究系, 准教授 (70465920)
• Project Period (FY): 2010 – 2012
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
• Keywords: クラスタリング / 地震予知 / ETAS モデル / RTL / PI / ギャンブリング評価法 / 前震 / 荷重・脱荷重応答比理論 / 地震予測 / 地震クラスタリング / ETASモデル / GPS / 地震除群法 / 確率利得 / クラスタリンク / 荷重-脱荷重応答比理論(Load/unload response ratio, LURR) / 常時地震活動 / RTP地震予報法

Research Abstract

It is commonly believed that seismicity is clustered. However, most of the conventional earthquake prediction/forecasting methods, that are also currently being widely used, determine anomalies implicitly or explicitly based on Poisson models. This study revises these methods into versions that extract useful precursory information based on clustering models.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Cumulative rate analysis (2013)
  • Author(s): Jacobs K. M., Smith E. G. C., Savage M. K., and Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: a clustering algorithm for swarm dominated catalogs Volume: 118 Issue: 2 Pages: 553-569
  • DOI: 10.1029/2012jb009222
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Comprehensive and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in terms of number, time, space, and magnitude. (2013)
  • Author(s): Ogata Y., Katsura K., Falcone G., Nanjo K. and Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Volume: 103 Issue: 3 Pages: 1692-1708
  • DOI: 10.1785/0120120063
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results (2012)
  • Author(s): Nanjo, K. Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T. H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K. and Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 191(2) Issue: 2 Pages: 653-658
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2012.05626.x
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Long-term earthquakeforecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Research in Geophysics Volume: 22, e6. Issue: 1 Pages: 52-57
  • DOI: 10.4081/rg.2012.e8
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts (2012)
  • Author(s): Console, R., Yamaoka, K. and Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Geophysics Volume: 2012 Pages: 217923-217923
  • DOI: 10.1155/2012/217923
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Evaluation of the prediction performance of the Annual Cosultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency by using the gambling score (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.-C. and Jiang
  • Journal Title: Chinese Journal of Geophysics Volume: 55 Pages: 1695-1709
• [Journal Article] An approach to detect the abnormal seismicity increase in Southwestern China triggered co-seismically by 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.2 earthquake (2012)
  • Author(s): Peng, Y., Zhou S., Zhuang J. and Shi J.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 189 Issue: 3 Pages: 1734-1740
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2012.05456.x
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests (2012)
  • Author(s): Parsons T., Ogata Y., Zhuang J. and Geist E. L.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 188 Issue: 3 Pages: 1425-1440
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2011.05343.x
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J. and Jiang C
  • Journal Title: Tectonophysics Volume: 524-525 Pages: 155-164
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2011.12.033
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Basic models of seismicity: temporal models (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Harte, D, Werner, M.J., Hainzl, S. and Zhou, S.
  • Journal Title: Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis Volume: 1 Pages: 1-42
  • DOI: 10.5078/corssa-79905851
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Seismicity declustering (2012)
  • Author(s): van Stiphout T., Zhuang J., Marsan D
  • Journal Title: Community Online Resource for statistical Seismicity Analysis Pages: 1-25
  • DOI: 10.5078/corssa-52382934
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (2011)
  • Author(s): Zechar J. D., Hardebeck J. L., Michael A. J., Naylor M., Steacy S., Wiemer S., Zhuang J., and the CORSSA working group
  • Journal Title: Seismological Research Letters Volume: 82 Issue: 5 Pages: 686-690
  • DOI: 10.1785/gssrl.82.5.686
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] An improved version of the Load/Unload Response Ratio method for forecasting strong aftershocks (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhang L.-P. and Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Tectonophysics Volume: 509 Pages: 191-197
• [Journal Article] Statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in Italy and Southern California (2011)
  • Author(s): Marzocchi W. and Zhuang J.,
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 38 Issue: 9
  • DOI: 10.1029/2011gl047165
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J.,
  • Journal Title: Earth Planets Space Volume: 63 Issue: 3 Pages: 207-216
  • DOI: 10.5047/eps.2010.12.010
  • NAID: 10028226123
• [Journal Article] Basic models of seismicity : spatiotemporal models (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J., Werner M.J., Hainzl S., Harte D., Zhou S.
  • Journal Title: Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis Pages: 1-20
  • DOI: 10.5078/corssa-07487583
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS mode (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets, Space Volume: 63 Pages: 207-216
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 警報型地震予測の性能評価法について (2011)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉, 尾形良彦
  • Journal Title: 地震予知連絡会会報 Volume: 85 Pages: 451-452
• [Journal Article] Missing links in earthquake clustering models (2010)
  • Author(s): Wang, Q., Jackson D. D., and Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Gephysical Research Letters Volume: 37 Issue: 21
  • DOI: 10.1029/2010gl044858
• [Journal Article] Risk and return: evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake predictions (2010)
  • Author(s): Zechar J. D. and Zhuang J.,
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 182 Issue: 3 Pages: 1319-1326
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2010.04666.x
• [Journal Article] Are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California? (2010)
  • Author(s): Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D. and Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: J. Geophy. Res. Volume: 115 Issue: B8
  • DOI: 10.1029/2009jb007031
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region (2010)
  • Author(s): Jiang C. S. and Zhuang J. C.
  • Journal Title: Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese with English abstract) Volume: 53(2)
• [Journal Article] Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 181 Issue: 1 Pages: 382-390
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246x.2010.04496.x
• [Journal Article] Are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California? (2010)
  • Author(s): Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D., Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Geophysical Research Volume: 115
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Missing links in earthquake clustering models (2010)
  • Author(s): Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D., Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 37
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Risk and return : evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake predictions (2010)
  • Author(s): Zechar, J.D., Zhuang, J.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Journal International Volume: 182 Pages: 1319-1236
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Comprehensive and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in terms of number, time, space, and magnitude
  • Author(s): Ogata Y., Katsura K., Falcone G., Nanjo K. and Zhuang J.
  • Journal Title: Submitted to BSSA Volume: (in press)
• [Journal Article] Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data
  • Author(s): Wang T., Zhuang J., Kato N., and Bebbington M.
  • Journal Title: Submitted to GRL Volume: (in press)
• [Presentation] Estimating the maximum magnitude by using the G-R law, background seismicity, and earthquake clustering structures (2013)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 共同利用研究集会「室内実験と数値実験から探る地震活動の物理」
  • Place of Presentation: 東京大学地震研究所
  • Year and Date: 2013-03-05
• [Presentation] Estimating the maximum magnitude by using the G-R law, background seismicity, and earthquake clustering structures (2013)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所共同利用研究集会「室内実験と数値実験から探る地震活動の物理」
  • Place of Presentation: 東京大学地震研究所
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Testing significance of earthquake precursors against earthquake clustering models (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2012年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 函館市
  • Year and Date: 2012-10-19
• [Presentation] Exploratory analysis of earthquake precursory information in GPS measurements (2012)
  • Author(s): Ting Wang*, Zhuang, J., Kato, T.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2012年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 函館市,
  • Year and Date: 2012-10-18
• [Presentation] On the criticality of a type of branching processes (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 2012年度統計関連学会連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 札幌市
  • Year and Date: 2012-09-10
• [Presentation] On the Criticality of Branching Models for Earthquake Occurrences (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.*, Harte, D. and Werner, M.
  • Organizer: AOGS -AGU (WPGM) Joint Assembly, Singapore
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore(一般講演)
  • Year and Date: 2012-08-17
• [Presentation] Long-term earthquake forecasts based on short-term earthquake clustering models (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所第3回研究集会「地震活動の評価に基づく地震発生予測システム- 東北地方太平洋沖地震前後の地震発生予測-」
  • Place of Presentation: 東京大学地震研究所
  • Year and Date: 2012-07-12
• [Presentation] First-and Second-order Residual Analysis of Spatiotemporal Point Processes and Applications In Model Evaluation (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: The 2nd Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: つくば市,
  • Year and Date: 2012-07-03
• [Presentation] Final Evaluation of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) Experiment and the Future of Earthquake Forecasting, Rancho Mirage (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: Scoring Annual Earthquake Predictions in China, SCEC CSEP Workshop
  • Place of Presentation: CA, アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2012-06-07
• [Presentation] 短期クラスタリングのETASモデルに基づく長期地震予測 (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
  • Place of Presentation: 千葉市
  • Year and Date: 2012-05-25
• [Presentation] On the criticality of branching models for earthquake occurrences (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 国際シンポジウム「Statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes
  • Place of Presentation: 統計数理研究所
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-13
• [Presentation] Criticality of branching models for earthquake occurrences (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes
  • Place of Presentation: 統計数理研究所(東京都)(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-13
• [Presentation] Earthquake forecasts from inter-event times statistics (2012)
  • Author(s): Talbil A.
  • Organizer: International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes
  • Place of Presentation: 統計数理研究所(東京都)(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-12
• [Presentation] Next-day earthquake forecasts generated by the ETAS model and performance evaluation (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 第4回国際ワークショップ:社会のイノベーションを誘発する情報システム-クライシスに強い社会基盤(the 4th International Workshop on Information Systems for Social Innovation : Resilient Social Infrastructure against Crises)
  • Place of Presentation: 国立情報研究所(東京都)(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2012-02-15
• [Presentation] Exploratory analysis of earthquake precursory information in GPS measurements (2012)
  • Author(s): ing Wang, Zhuang, J., Kato, T.
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2012年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 函館市
• [Presentation] On the criticality of a type of branching processes (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 2012年度統計関連学会連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道大学高等教育推進機構, 札幌市
• [Presentation] Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences:Residual analysis and stochastic reconstruction (2012)
  • Author(s): J. Zhuang
  • Organizer: NUS seminar
  • Place of Presentation: National University of Singapore
  • Invited
• [Presentation] On the Criticality of Branching Models for Earthquake Occurrences (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.*, Harte, D. and Werner, M.
  • Organizer: 2012 AOGS - AGU (WPGM) Joint Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: National University of Singapore
• [Presentation] Semiparametric estimation for modulated renewal processes (2012)
  • Author(s): Siew, H-Y. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2012 AOGS - AGU (WPGM) Joint Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Resorts World Convention Centre, Singapore
• [Presentation] Long-term earthquake forecasts based on short-term earthquake clustering models (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所第3回研究集会「地震活動の評価に基づく地震発生予測システム - 東北地方太平洋沖地震前後の地震発生予測-」
  • Place of Presentation: 東京大学地震研究所
  • Invited
• [Presentation] First- and second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and applications in model evaluation (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: The 2nd Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: つくば国際会議場, つくば市
• [Presentation] Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J.
  • Organizer: SCEC CSEP Workshop: Final Evaluation of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) Experiment and the Future of Earthquake Forecasting
  • Place of Presentation: Rancho Las Palmas Resort, Rancho Mirage, CA, アメリカ合衆国
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 短期クラスタリングのETASモデルに基づく長期地震予測 (2012)
  • Author(s): 庄 建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ国際会議場, 千葉市
• [Presentation] Testing significance of earthquake precursors: Against complete randomness? Or against earthquake clustering models? (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2011 AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ, アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2011-12-07
• [Presentation] Testing earthquake precursors : Against complete randomness? Or against clustering models (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2011 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)(米国地球物理学連合2011年秋季大会)
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ,アメリカ
  • Year and Date: 2011-12-07
• [Presentation] CORSSA : Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (2011)
  • Author(s): Zechar
  • Organizer: 2011 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)(米国地球物理学連合2011年秋季大会)
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ,アメリカ
  • Year and Date: 2011-12-07
• [Presentation] Long-term probability forecasts based on background seismicity (2011)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2011年秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 静岡県コンベンションアーツセンター・グランシップ
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-13
• [Presentation] Long-term probability forecasts based on background seismicity (2011)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 国際セッション、日本地震学会2011年秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 静岡
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-13
• [Presentation] Foreshocks and the Bath law explained by earthquake clustering models (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: European Science Foundation (ESF) Research Conferences "Continuing Challenges in Earthquake Dynamics : New Methods for Observing and Modelling a Multi-Scale System"
  • Place of Presentation: Obergurgl,オーストリア
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-13
• [Presentation] Towards dynamic earthquake hazard models: Real time probability forecasts + Early warning + Attenuation models + Cite-condition database (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: CSEP(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Workshop, ETH Zurich
  • Place of Presentation: スイス連邦
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-03
• [Presentation] Towards dynamic earthquake hazard models : real time probability forecasts+early warning+attenuation models+site-condition database (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J.
  • Organizer: CSEP+REAKT+NERA WORKSHOP AT ETH/SED
  • Place of Presentation: ETH(Zurich,スイス)(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-03
• [Presentation] Foreshocks and the Bath law explained by earthquake clustering models (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: ESF Research Conferences"Continuing Challenges in Earthquake Dynamics: New Methods for Observing and Modelling a Multi-Scale System
  • Place of Presentation: Obergurgl, オーストリア共和国
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-28
• [Presentation] Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by using a statistical model (2011)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 年度統計関連学会連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 福岡市
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-07
• [Presentation] Next-day Earthquake Forecasts Generated by the ETAS Model (2011)
  • Author(s): Nanio, K.Z.
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 8th Annual Meeting(アジア・オセアニア地球科学学会第8回大会)
  • Place of Presentation: 台北市(台湾)(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2011-08-10
• [Presentation] Modulated Renewal Models for Inter-event Times of Earthquakes (2011)
  • Author(s): Siew, H.-Y.
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 8th Annual Meeting(アジア・オセアニア地球科学学会第8回大会)
  • Place of Presentation: 台北市(台湾)
  • Year and Date: 2011-08-10
• [Presentation] Gambling scores and evaluation of the performance of earthquake predictions (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: GNS Science Seminar
  • Place of Presentation: Lower Hutt,ニュージーランド(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2011-07-29
• [Presentation] Testing earthquake precursors : Against complete randomness? Or against clustering models (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: Seminar series in honour of David Vere-Jones
  • Place of Presentation: Waikanae,ニュージーランド(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2011-07-27
• [Presentation] Stochastic reconstruction for spatiotemporal branching processes (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: School of Mathematics, Statistics, and Operational Researches, Victoria University of Wellington
  • Place of Presentation: Wellington,ニュージーランド(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2011-07-15
• [Presentation] Foreshock phenomena and the Bath law implied by generic earthquake clustering (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Marzocchi, W.
  • Organizer: 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7)
  • Place of Presentation: Santorini, ギリシャ共和国
  • Year and Date: 2011-05-26
• [Presentation] Foreshock phenomena and the Bath law implied by generic earthquake clustering (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7)(第7回統計地震学国際ワークショップ)
  • Place of Presentation: Thera (Santorini),ギリシア(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2011-05-26
• [Presentation] CORSSA : Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis-Status & Outlook-Discussion (2011)
  • Author(s): Zechar, J.D.
  • Organizer: 7th International Workshop on statistical Seismology (Statsei7)(第7回統計地震学国際ワークショップ)
  • Place of Presentation: Thera (Santorini),ギリシア
  • Year and Date: 2011-05-26
• [Presentation] Recent progress of the CSEP earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan : Strategy and preliminary results of testing against the aftershock sequence of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (2011)
  • Author(s): Nanjo, K.
  • Organizer: Seismological Society of America (SSA) 2011 Annual Meeting(アメリカ地震学会2011年大会)
  • Place of Presentation: Memphis,アメリカ
  • Year and Date: 2011-05-26
• [Presentation] Foreshock statistics in Italy (2010)
  • Author(s): Marzocchi, W.* and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2010 AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ, アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2010-12-16
• [Presentation] Uncertainties of Parameter Estimates in Earthquake Clustering Models (2010)
  • Author(s): Wang, Q.,* Jackson, D.D., Schoenberg, R. and Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2010 AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ, アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2010-12-16
• [Presentation] Uncertainties of Parameter Estimates in Earthquake Clustering Models (2010)
  • Author(s): Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D., Schoenberg, F.P., Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ,アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2010-12-16
• [Presentation] Building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA) (2010)
  • Author(s): Michael, A.J., Wiemer, S., Zechar, J.D., Hardebeck, J.L., Naylor, M., Zhuang, J., Steacy, S.
  • Organizer: 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ,アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2010-12-16
• [Presentation] Foreshock statistics in Italy (2010)
  • Author(s): Marzocchi, W., Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ,アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2010-12-16
• [Presentation] Purposes and methods of scoring earthquake forecasts (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2010 AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ, アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2010-12-15
• [Presentation] Purposes and methods of scoring earthquake forecasts (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Place of Presentation: サンフランシスコ,アメリカ合衆国
  • Year and Date: 2010-12-15
• [Presentation] Maximum weighted likelihood estimates for spatiotemporal point processes, 「時空間現象データに対する統計科学モデルの構築及び解析に関する組織的研究」 (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 国際シンポジウム
  • Place of Presentation: 鎌倉市
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-04
• [Presentation] Maximum weighted likelihood estimates for spatiotemporal point processes (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.
  • Organizer: 科研基盤(A)「時空間現象データに対する統計科学モデルの構築及び解析に関する組織的研究」国際シンポジウム
  • Place of Presentation: 鎌倉市
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-04
• [Presentation] Evaluating performance of earthquake prediction relative to a baseline model through gambling scoring (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J.* and Ogata, Y.
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所研究集会「地震活動の評価に基づく地震発生予測システム:標準予測モデルの構築へ向けて」
  • Place of Presentation: 京都府宇治市
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-02
• [Presentation] Evaluating performance of earthquake prediction relative to a baseline model through gambling scoring (2010)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 東京大学地震研究所研究集会「地震活動の評価に基づく地震発生予測システム:標準予測モデルの構築へ向けて」
  • Place of Presentation: 京都府宇治市(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-02
• [Presentation] 大地震予測の評価のための相場確率 (2010)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2010年秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 広島市(ポスター発表.)
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-29
• [Presentation] 大地震予測の評価のための相場確率 (2010)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉, 尾形良彦
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2010年秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 広島市
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-29
• [Presentation] A database of stochastic declustered catalogs (2010)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2010年秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 広島市
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-28
• [Presentation] A database of stochastic declustered catalogs (2010)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会2010年秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 広島市(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-28
• [Presentation] 予測のギャンブリング評価法 (2010)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 010年度統計関連学会連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2010-09-06
• [Presentation] 予測のギャンブリング評価法 (2010)
  • Author(s): 庄建倉
  • Organizer: 2010年度統計関連学会連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京都新宿区
  • Year and Date: 2010-09-06
• [Presentation] Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Zechar, J.D., Jiang, C., Console, R., Murru, M. and Falcone, G.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2010年大会
  • Place of Presentation: 千葉市
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-24
• [Presentation] Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region (2010)
  • Author(s): Jiang C., Zhuang J.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2010年大会
  • Place of Presentation: 千葉市(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-24
• [Presentation] Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J., Zechar J.D., Jiang C., Console R., Murru M., Falcone G.
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2010年大会
  • Place of Presentation: 千葉市(招待講演)
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-24
• [Presentation] Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts (2010)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J., Zechar J.D., Jiang C., Console R., Murru M., Falcone G.
  • Organizer: EGU General Assembly 2010
  • Place of Presentation: Vienna, Austria
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-04
• [Book] Imaging, Modeling and Assimilation in Seismology - Volume I (2013)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J., Ogata Y., Vere-Jones D., Ma L., and Guan H. Li Y.,
  • Publisher: Germany: De Gruyter
• [Book] Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region. In Imaging, Modeling and Assimilation in Seismology - Volume II, edited by Li Y. (2013)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J., Ogata Y., Vere-Jones D., Ma L., and Guan H.
  • Publisher: De Gruyter
• [Book] Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (2012)
  • Author(s): Zhuang, J., Harte, D, Werner, M.J., Hainzl, S. and Zhou, S.
• [Book] Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (2012)
  • Author(s): van Stiphout T., Zhuang J., and Marsan D.
• [Book] Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (2011)
  • Author(s): Zhuang J., Werner M.J., Hainzl S., Harte D., and Zhou S.
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://www.corssa.org/
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/zhuang/
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg.html
• [Remarks] リ ス ク 解 析 戦 略 研 究 セ ン タ ー 地震予測解析プロジェクト
  • URL: http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg.html
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/zhuang/publication.htm
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg.html