Improving earthquake prediction algorithms based on earthquake clustering models
| Project/Area Number |
22700299
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | The Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
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Principal Investigator |
ZHUANG Jiancang 統計数理研究所, モデリング研究系, 准教授 (70465920)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010 – 2012
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Keywords | クラスタリング / 地震予知 / ETAS モデル / RTL / PI / ギャンブリング評価法 / 前震 / 荷重・脱荷重応答比理論 / 地震予測 / 地震クラスタリング / ETASモデル / GPS / 地震除群法 / 確率利得 / クラスタリンク / 荷重-脱荷重応答比理論(Load/unload response ratio, LURR) / 常時地震活動 / RTP地震予報法 |
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| Research Abstract |
It is commonly believed that seismicity is clustered. However, most of the conventional earthquake prediction/forecasting methods, that are also currently being widely used, determine anomalies implicitly or explicitly based on Poisson models. This study revises these methods into versions that extract useful precursory information based on clustering models.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(102 results)
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[Journal Article] Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results2012
Author(s)
Nanjo, K. Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T. H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K. and Zhuang, J.
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Journal Title
Geophysical Journal International
Volume: 191(2)
Issue: 2
Pages: 653-658
DOI
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Peer Reviewed
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[Presentation] Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China2012
Author(s)
Zhuang J.
Organizer
SCEC CSEP Workshop: Final Evaluation of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) Experiment and the Future of Earthquake Forecasting
Place of Presentation
Rancho Las Palmas Resort, Rancho Mirage, CA, アメリカ合衆国
Related Report
Invited
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[Presentation] Building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA)2010
Author(s)
Michael, A.J., Wiemer, S., Zechar, J.D., Hardebeck, J.L., Naylor, M., Zhuang, J., Steacy, S.
Organizer
2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Place of Presentation
サンフランシスコ,アメリカ合衆国
Year and Date
2010-12-16
Related Report
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[Presentation] Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts2010
Author(s)
Zhuang, J., Zechar, J.D., Jiang, C., Console, R., Murru, M. and Falcone, G.
Organizer
日本地球惑星科学連合2010年大会
Place of Presentation
千葉市
Year and Date
2010-05-24
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