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An analysis of long-term dynamics of individual travel mode choice behaviours and household car owning behaviours

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22730334
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Commerce
Research InstitutionKobe University

Principal Investigator

SANKO Nobuhiro  神戸大学, 大学院・経営学研究科, 准教授 (00403220)

Project Period (FY) 2010 – 2012
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords消費者行動 / 交通行動 / 交通手段選択 / 自動車保有 / 需要予測
Research Abstract

To understand and forecast travel behaviours in long-time horizon, travel behaviours are analysed utilising repeated cross-sectional data collected in Nagoya at four points in time covering three decades. The analyses provided insights into better understandings of long-term dynamics of travel mode choice behaviours and car owning behaviours. The author proposed a methodology to improve travel demand forecasts by utilising not only the most recent dataset but also an older dataset. In addition, the author investigated reasons of forecast inaccuracies, applied models in developed countries to developing countries, proposed a methodology to handle income data appropriately, and addressed technical issues for analysing travel behaviour changes.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2012 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (22 results)

All 2013 2012 2011 2010

All Journal Article (11 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 6 results) Presentation (11 results)

  • [Journal Article] Travel Demand Forecasts Improved by Using Cross-Sectional Data from Multiple Time Points2013

    • Author(s)
      Sanko,N.
    • Journal Title

      Transportation

      Volume: forthcoming Issue: 4 Pages: 673-695

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11116-013-9464-7

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Estimation Efficiency of RP/SP Models Considering SP Design and Error Structures2013

    • Author(s)
      Sanko,N. and Yamamoto, T.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Choice Modelling

      Volume: forthcoming Pages: 60-73

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jocm.2013.04.001

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Mode Choice Models' Ability to Express Intention to Change Travel Behaviour Considering Non-Compensatory Rules and Latent Variables2013

    • Author(s)
      Sanko, N. , Morikawa, T., and Kurauchi, S.
    • Journal Title

      IATSS Research

      Volume: Vol. 36, No. 2 Issue: 2 Pages: 129-138

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.iatssr.2012.10.001

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Household Car and Motorcycle Ownership in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur in Comparison with Nagoya2012

    • Author(s)
      Sanko, N., Dissanayake, D., Kurauchi, S., Maesoba, H., Yamamoto, T., and Morikawa, T.
    • Journal Title

      Transportmetrica

      Volume: forthcoming Issue: 3 Pages: 187-213

    • DOI

      10.1080/18128602.2012.726285

    • Year and Date
      2012-10-04
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Household Car and Motorcycle Ownership in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur in Comparison with Nagoya2012

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, Graduate School of Business Administration, Kobe University

      Volume: 2012-6(revised version) Pages: 1-44

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] RPの属性値を基準にした効率的な SP調査設計:RPと SPの誤差項に着目して2011

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘,山本俊行
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 D3(土木計画学)

      Volume: Vol. 67,No. 5(土木計画学研究・論文集第28巻)

    • NAID

      130004559552

    • URL

      http://www.lib.kobe-u.ac.jp/infolib/meta_pub/G0000003kernel_90001638

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] RPの属性値を基準にした効率的なSP調査設計:RPとSPの誤差項に着目して2011

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集D3(土木計画学)(土木計画学研究・論文集)

      Volume: 67巻5号

    • NAID

      130004559552

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] RPの属性値を基準にした効率的なSP調査設計:RPとSPの誤差項に着目して2011

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Journal Title

      神戸大学大学院経営学研究科ディスカッションペーパーシリーズ

      Volume: 2011-6 Pages: 1-7

    • NAID

      130004559552

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] New Transport System-Post-Project Evaluation of Travel Demand Forecasts2010

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, Graduate School of Business Administration, Kobe Univ.

      Volume: 2010-56 Pages: 1-35

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Household Car and Motorcycle Ownership in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur in Comparison with Nagoya2010

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, Graduate School of Business Administration, Kobe Univ.

      Volume: 2010-49 Pages: 1-35

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Efficient SP Experiment Design for RP/SP Models Considering Error Structures between the RP and SP Models2010

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Journal Title

      Discussion Paper Series, Graduate School of Business Administration, Kobe Univ.

      Volume: 2010-43 Pages: 1-27

    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] When Explanatory Variables Are Unobserved: The Example of Latent Income2013

    • Author(s)
      Hess, S., Daly, A., Dumont, J., and Sanko, N.
    • Organizer
      the 92nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
    • Place of Presentation
      Washington D. C., USA
    • Year and Date
      2013-01-14
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] When Explanatory Variables Are Unobserved: The Example of Latent Income2013

    • Author(s)
      Stephane Hess,Andrew Daly,Jeff Dumont,三古展弘
    • Organizer
      92nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
    • Place of Presentation
      ワシントンDC,米国
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Improving Forecast Performance Using Cross-Sectional Data from Multiple Time Points2012

    • Author(s)
      Sanko,N.
    • Organizer
      the 13th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research
    • Place of Presentation
      Toronto, Canada
    • Year and Date
      2012-07-18
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 複数時点の断面データを用いた交通需要予測精度の向上2012

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Organizer
      第45回土木計画学研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学
    • Year and Date
      2012-06-03
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Improving Forecast Performance Using Cross-Sectional Data from Multiple Time Points2012

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Organizer
      13th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research
    • Place of Presentation
      トロント,カナダ
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Post-Project Evaluation of Travel Demand Forecasts: The Case of New Transport System Facing a Competing Railway2011

    • Author(s)
      Sanko, N., Morikawa, T., and Nagamatsu, Y.
    • Organizer
      the 12th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport
    • Place of Presentation
      Durban, South Africa
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-13
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Post-Project Evaluation of Travel Demand Forecasts : The Case of New Transport System Facing a Competing Railway2011

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Organizer
      The 12th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport
    • Place of Presentation
      南アフリカ・ダーバン
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-13
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Estimation Efficiency of RP/SP Models Considering SP Design and Error Structures2011

    • Author(s)
      Sanko, N. and Yamamoto, T.
    • Organizer
      the Second International Choice Modelling Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Leeds, UK
    • Year and Date
      2011-07-06
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Estimation Efficiency of RP/SP Models Considering SP Design and Error Structures2011

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Organizer
      The Second International Choice Modelling Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      英国・リーズ
    • Year and Date
      2011-07-06
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 誤差項に着目したRP/SPモデルのための効率的なSP調査設計2010

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘,山本俊行
    • Organizer
      第42回土木計画学研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      山梨大学
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-22
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 誤差項に着目したRP/SPモデルのための効率的なSP調査設計2010

    • Author(s)
      三古展弘
    • Organizer
      第42回土木計画学研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      山梨大学(山梨県)
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-22
    • Related Report
      2010 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2010-08-23   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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